Although the Brexit vote seemed to be the end of a long campaign, the U.K. has barely begun taking steps toward leaving the European Union.
No country has ever actually left the EU since it was founded in 1958. It鈥檚 unclear how exactly the process will play out in reality -- but on paper, there are certain steps laid out.
First, the government must invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.
What is the Lisbon Treaty?
The EU was founded with only six members, but has since expanded to 28 countries in the nearly 60 years since its inception. About a decade ago, that growth prompted a restructuring of the treaties that govern the group.
The Lisbon Treaty, signed in 2007, is essentially the EU鈥檚 current constitution. The treaty was 鈥渋ntended to reform the functioning of the European Union鈥� to accommodate the union鈥檚 doubling in size since 2004, and is made up of two parts: the and the .
The treaty in total has 358 articles outlining the policies and procedures of the EU.
What does Article 50 say?
has five points and can be roughly summarized as follows:
- Any member state may withdraw from the union
- Members wishing to withdraw need to notify the European Council of its intention and work out an agreement for how future dealings between the state and the union will take place
- The withdrawing state is officially out of the union when either the agreement comes into effect, or automatically after two years without reaching an agreement (barring a unanimously agreed upon extension)
- The withdrawing state does not participate in European Council discussions or decisions concerning it
- States that have already withdrawn from the union will go through a if they wish to rejoin
Essentially, Britain鈥檚 government needs to tell the EU they鈥檙e leaving and then negotiate the terms of the breakup.
How is an agreement reached?
After negotiating the terms of the deal, both the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union must approve the agreement by voting.
The European Parliament 鈥� which has 748 elected members, including 73 British members 鈥� must consent to the deal with a majority vote.
The Council of the European Union 鈥� which is made up of representatives from each country 鈥� must reach a 鈥渜ualified majority鈥� of 72 per cent for the agreement to be accepted. In this case, that would mean 20 out of the other 27 countries (Britain doesn鈥檛 vote) would need to vote in favour of the agreement.
And if no deal is reached?
As per the third point in Article 50, if no deal is reached within two years, the UK will automatically be out of the EU -- which could make trading with 27 of its closest neighbours more costly, for example, if no separate trade deals have been ratified.
This deadline is allowed to be extended if agreed upon unanimously by both the European Council and the withdrawing country.
When will this process actually begin?
Article 50 says any member state may leave 鈥渋n accordance with its own constitutional requirements,鈥� which means the government has to follow its own policies for making such a decision 鈥� a referendum won鈥檛 automatically set those procedures into motion.
The waters might be muddy -- MPs must first vote to repeal the before the UK can legally leave the EU, for example.
There鈥檚 also an calling for a second referendum 鈥� though online petitions are, of course, also not legally binding and susceptible to vote rigging and non-British influence.
Current British Prime Minister David Cameron said the UK , but did say the result of the referendum should be implemented in the 鈥渂est possible way.鈥�
Essentially, we鈥檒l likely have to wait for the dust to settle from the political and economic tornado ripping through Britain before we see a formal Brexit begin to happen.
