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Biden's withdrawal from the U.S. presidential race spells new uncertainty for Ukraine

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves Downing Street after meeting with Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, Friday, July 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung) Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves Downing Street after meeting with Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, Friday, July 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Kin Cheung)
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U.S. President Joe Biden鈥檚 decision to end his campaign for reelection brings a new element of uncertainty for Ukraine, which is struggling to fend off Russian advances even as it worries about the future of American support.

The prospect of victory for former President Donald Trump, the Republican contender, has long concerned Kyiv, which fears he would choke off support and force Ukraine to sue for peace on terms that favor Russia.

But while the Democrats hope Biden鈥檚 decision to drop out and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris will inject energy into their campaign, it's unclear whether it makes Trump's defeat more likely. Officials in Moscow, widely thought to favor Trump, were noncommittal.

Kyiv resident Yulia Loginova said she found it impossible to predict how Biden's departure would affect Ukraine.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know, honestly,鈥 she said. 鈥淪urprises every day. But he did the right thing.鈥

Phillips O鈥橞rien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said Biden鈥檚 withdrawal 鈥渃hanges the narrative of the campaign,鈥 but it鈥檚 too soon to say how much it will alter the dynamic of the presidential election.

鈥淚f it makes the Democrats more likely to win, then Ukraine鈥檚 happy,鈥 he said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think a Harris administration would be that different from a Biden administration.鈥

Ukraine may be facing tough times regardless of who wins. While the U.S. is Ukraine鈥檚 most crucial backer, under Biden it has sometimes been seen as a frustrating friend.

Standing in Kyiv鈥檚 Independence Square beside a sea of small Ukrainian flags left in tribute to those killed in the war, a solider said victory 鈥渋s impossible without the support of the U.S.A., that is a fact. They have the largest number of weapons, influence and everything.鈥

Still, the soldier, who gave only his nickname, Sadik, in line with military rules, said that if the U.S. had provided more support, 鈥渢he war would have ended a long time ago.鈥

But a new Trump administration would make things far worse, he added.

鈥淚f Trump wins, there will be little or no weapons,鈥 he said, adding that he feared Ukraine would be forced into concessions to end the war, where the Kremlin鈥檚 troops are making gradual battlefield gains.

Trump has boasted that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, and Ukrainians think any such settlement would be on Russia鈥檚 terms.

Trump鈥檚 choice of Ohio Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as vice-presidential running mate has triggered more alarm.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a visit to Britain last week that dealing with Trump would be hard work 鈥 but he added that Ukrainians aren鈥檛 鈥渁fraid of hard work.鈥 Ukraine鈥檚 leader and Trump spoke by phone on Friday, a call both men described as good on social media platform X.

Zelenskyy thanked Biden for his 鈥渦nwavering support鈥 and 鈥渂old steps鈥 during more than two years of war.

鈥淭he current situation in Ukraine and all of Europe is no less challenging, and we sincerely hope that America鈥檚 continued strong leadership will prevent Russian evil from succeeding or making its aggression pay off,鈥 Zelenskyy wrote on X.

Yet Ukraine鈥檚 gratitude for U.S. support is tinged with frustration at its limitations.

As Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine鈥檚 cities and infrastructure, Zelenskyy鈥檚 government has pushed for the Biden administration to authorize the use of American-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Ukraine wants to target the sites, often far from the border, that Moscow uses to launch airborne attacks on Ukraine. Washington has not given permission out of concern the conflict could escalate.

鈥淭he Ukrainians are pretty disappointed with Biden,鈥 said Edward Lucas, a senior adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis. 鈥淏iden鈥檚 dithering has a price, paid in the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and the slaughter of Ukrainian civilians, and in unnecessary battlefield casualties.

鈥淪o although Trump might be worse 鈥 a continuation of the Biden line is already pretty grim.鈥

Several senior U.S. Democrats have quickly lined up to support Harris as the nominee. On foreign policy, her public statements have 鈥 unsurprisingly 鈥 been in lockstep with Biden鈥檚. She told an audience at the Munich Security Conference in February that 鈥淧resident Joe Biden and I stand with Ukraine鈥 and pledged the administration would 鈥渨ork to secure critical weapons and resources that Ukraine so badly needs.鈥

Heather Hurlburt, a former Biden administration official now with the Chatham House think tank, said Harris had been 鈥渧ery front and center in the Ukraine policy,鈥 and would likely keep to the same course as Biden.

In Moscow, meanwhile, officials suggested Biden鈥檚 departure would not deter them from their goals in the war and offered no opinion on whether it would make a difference to icy Russia-U.S. relations 鈥 though Trump and President Vladimir Putin have traded praise over the years.

鈥滻t鈥檚 not our business to assess the U.S. president鈥檚 decisions,鈥 said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. 鈥淭his is something the U.S. voters should be concerned about.鈥

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia鈥檚 Security Council, said on the Telegram messaging app that Biden's departure wouldn't change Russia's strategy in Ukraine.

鈥淭he goals of the special military operation will be achieved,鈥 he added, using the Kremlin鈥檚 term for the war.

Ukraine and America鈥檚 other allies also worry the U.S. could grow less dependable regardless of who wins. With a divided electorate and Congress, the next president could easily become consumed by domestic challenges before even reckoning with multiple flashpoints around the world. Gridlock in Congress that stalled a $61 billion package of military aid to Ukraine for months before it was finally approved brought home the precariousness of the situation.

In Kyiv, Ukrainians absorbed the latest twist in a U.S. election that may determine their country鈥檚 future.

鈥淚 love Biden because he supported Ukraine,鈥 said Mykyta Kolesnikov, who manages a car wash business. 鈥淗e sent us important assistance for the war when we needed it.鈥

But Kolesnikov, 21, said he understood that Biden had to step aside and just hoped the Democrats would field a stronger candidate.

鈥淶elenskyy says that he can work with Trump, but it will be very hard for Ukraine to work with Trump and his team,鈥 Kolesnikov said.

Lawless reported from London. Associated Press journalists Vasilisa Stepanenko and Samya Kullab in Kyiv contributed to this story.

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