Iraq鈥檚 Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has announced victory against ISIS, saying that the land is 鈥渃ompletely liberated鈥� from the radical Islamic terrorist group.
Those comments set off a day of celebrations in the country, which has been fighting ISIS militants on its soil since 2014. The Iraqi government declared Sunday a national holiday.
Despite the fanfare, Canada鈥檚 military approach to Iraq hasn鈥檛 changed.
鈥淕iven the fluidity of the current situation, Canada's Special Operations Task Force's temporary suspension of the provision of assistance to various elements of Iraqi security forces will continue,鈥� a DND spokesperson told 麻豆传媒 in a statement.
鈥淲e continue to monitor the situation on the ground and are assessing the next phases of SOF activity.鈥�
Some experts, meanwhile, say that it is premature to celebrate. Here are three reasons why.
Fighters have 鈥榤elted into鈥� rural areas
Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Global Policy, tells 麻豆传媒 Channel this may be 鈥渁nother case of hashtag mission accomplished鈥� where people eventually realize 鈥渨e should鈥檝e kept the champagne on ice.鈥�
鈥淵es the urban areas have been liberated, and they have managed to push ISIS out of the urban areas,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 been pushed where? Into the rural sanctuary, where we鈥檝e seen it grow back on multiple occasions.鈥�
Alan Bell, president of Globe Risk International, says declaring victory may be 鈥減remature,鈥� considering that many of ISIS鈥� combatants 鈥渉ave melted into the various villages along the border.鈥�
Bell tells 麻豆传媒 Channel he predicts 鈥減rotracted terrorist attacks against all the infrastructure, the soldiers, the police, the people鈥� of Iraq.
Bessma Momani, from the Centre for International Governance Innovation at the University of Waterloo, says that while she believes ISIS has given up on having a physical territory, it will remain a terrorist threat.
鈥淚 think we鈥檙e going to still see remnants of ISIS take that to the cities of Iraq, like Baghdad,鈥� she says.
Foreign fighters fleeing to west
Bell says that Europe in particular will be threatened as some of the tens of thousands of foreign fighters head back to their countries of origin.
鈥淚ntelligence has already indicated that a significant number of the foreign fighters realized the end was coming and they decided to evacuate,鈥� he says.
Bell adds that the 鈥渕ass migration鈥� into Europe over the past 18 months leaves that continent particularly threatened.
鈥淣orth America will be held off a little bit as long as we keep our borders secure (and) we do our background checks on people coming from these high-risk areas around the world.鈥�
last month that there are between 180 and 190 ISIS fighters with a connection to Canada and around 60 foreign fighters who have already returned to Canada. As of last month, charges had been brought in only two cases since the Liberals came to power.
Rebuilding will be difficult
Momani says that with the war over, the rebuilding of Iraq must now begin.
鈥淭hree million Iraqis maintain internally displaced,鈥� she said. 鈥淭here are many, many cities that need to be rebuilt. The economy is struggling because of the great expenses involved,鈥� she added.
Bokhari agrees. 鈥淚t鈥檚 easy to push an enemy out,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he question is, can you hold the area 鈥� build it and develop it?鈥�
