For years, NAFTA had remained dormant as a significant issue in American and Canadian federal political campaigns.
In both countries, the viability of the free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. hadn't been questioned since the early 1990s.
Sure, there have been disputes -- for example, over softwood timber -- but the trade pact, itself, was never in doubt.
That is, until this spring 2008. That's when the Democratic presidential candidates thrust NAFTA back into the political limelight, telling voters they wanted to take a second look at the deal.
"I think we should use the hammer of a potential opt-out as leverage to ensure that we actually get labour and environmental standards that are enforced," Barack Obama told Democrats in Cleveland, Ohio, during the primaries.
The man who is now U.S. president-elect was trying to sway voters in the region who've seen hundreds of thousands of jobs shipped overseas since the 1990s.
Proving the old adage about politics and strange bedfellows, the NDP's Jack Layton didn't skip a beat. He went on CNN's "Lou Dobbs Tonight" to tell the anti-immigration crusader that some Canadians don't think the pact is such a good idea, either.
Pro-NAFTA forces both here and in the U.S. appeared dismayed at the resurgence of all the protectionist talk. They probably needn't worry any more, says an expert on the pact.
"Look at the election speeches and the (U.S.) primaries in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio. You will find there were all sorts of things being promised, being talked about, that have suddenly gone to the backburner," Ron Wonnacott, professor emeritus in the economics department at the University of Western Ontario told CTV.ca.
Wonnacott, who has been researching and writing about U.S.-Canada trade relations since the 1960s, says the emergence of the economic crisis this fall changed everything.
"I would put NAFTA way down in their (lawmakers') list of priorities -- if it's any sort of objective at all at this point," he says bluntly.
But Wonnacott says the economic downturn will also likely bring out protectionist forces in both Canada and the U.S.
"Protectionists' pressures will come from just about every court ... every industry under pressure will be asking for relief," he says, adding that will mean calls for more trade barriers and higher tariffs.
Is it all about Mexico?
But Wonnacott adds that in the U.S., most of the pressure lawmakers face will have to do more with Mexico than with Canada. He's careful to point out, however, that Canada shouldn't assume that some Americans will not look north as they try to protect industries, particularly when it comes to the automobile sector.
"I don't see the Americans taking this action," he says, adding, "but in this climate, never say never."
Wonnacott suspects that talk of an expanded hemispheric trade deal will die down in the current climate. He says, however, there may be bilateral agreements that are signed.
He also notes that as North America and the world begins to come out of the recession, initiatives to further liberalize trade will emerge again.
"But right now, given the problems that countries now face ... the big problem on the trade front will be defensive," he says.
Recognizing this, Canadian, U.S., and world leaders have warned against protectionist pressures that may further hurt the global economy.
Former U.S. vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin told CTV's Canada AM this month, she believes the current climate will force everyone, including the president-elect to rethink their campaign rhetoric about NAFTA.
"I think (Obama) is going to see some conditions that will allow him to temper his position," the Alaskan governor said.
"It's a good agreement and our trade partnering with Canada is extremely valuable. The number of jobs created as a result of NAFTA has been good for both of our countries."
Even Obama has backtracked from his initial call to re-open NAFTA unilaterally, noting that he doesn't believe that "we can draw a moat around the American economy."
But Wonnacott notes that the current economic crisis is relatively unprecedented -- and it's not easy to predict political or economic winds.
"It's uncharted territory," he says.
