Support for the Conservatives and Liberals remained stalled over the summer with the parties neck-and-neck heading into the fall Parliamentary session, according to a new poll by the Strategic Counsel.
But the survey also found Liberal voters are less committed to their party than Conservative supporters -- an opportunity that the Tories could exploit in an election scenario.
Among Tories -- by a 2:1 margin -- voters are less likely to be thinking about switching their support, the poll found. The Strategic Counsel conducted polling between August 9-12 for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
"Soft Tory voters susceptible to leaving and voting Liberal are firmly entrenched and highly committed at this point ... they like what the government has done," Tim Woolstencroft, managing partner with The Strategic Counsel, told CTV.ca.
In contrast, Liberal voters are evenly split about whether they intend to switch their vote.
The poll found the pool of possible Liberal-to-Conservative switchers is now larger than the Liberal-to-NDP pool. In the 2006 election, the situation was reversed.
When asked who they would vote for if an election were held today, Canadians remain evenly divided on the two front-running parties:
- Liberal candidate: 33 per cent
- Conservative candidate: 33 per cent
- NDP candidate: 17 per cent
- Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent
- Green Party candidate: 8 per cent
The survey did find that there were some significant barriers that are preventing 'soft' Liberal/Bloc/NDP voters from switching to the Conservatives. According to the survey, the barriers include:
- An apprehension about the prime minister's leadership style -- viewed as partisan, controlling, too right-wing;
- A sense that the Tories are too close to U.S. President George Bush;
- A feeling that the government has accomplished little.
"Still, they haven't closed the book on voting Conservative," said Woolstencroft. "There are things that they do like about what they've seen."
When asked if the nation was on the right track or wrong track, respondents said Canada was:
- On the right track: 57 per cent
- On the wrong track: 31 per cent
- Don't know/No answer/Refuse to answer: 12 per cent
Tories in Quebec
The poll also found that the Conservatives are poised to make more gains in Quebec, outside of Montreal.
When asked if Prime Minister Stephen Harper was a leader who keeps his election promises, 35 per cent of Quebecers agreed, compared to 16 per cent across Canada.
"There's a lot of things they (Quebecers outside Montreal) like about Harper," said Woolstencroft. "He's a friend of Quebec, there's a sense they can trust him, he's delivered on their election promises."
But Woolstencroft said the Tories are yet to "close the deal" among vote switchers and Afghanistan remains a serious challenge.
"It's a significant barrier. We know that Quebecers are the most strongly opposed, the most emotionally opposed to the mission," he said. "Clearly this is holding them back from being more decisively in the Conservative column."
Outside of Montreal, Quebecers showed strong support for the Tories if an election were to be held today (Montreal support figures in brackets):
- Liberal candidate: 18 per cent (31 per cent)
- Conservative candidate: 29 per cent (14 per cent)
- NDP candidate: 8 per cent (10 per cent)
- Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (35 per cent)
- Green Party candidate: 6 per cent (11 per cent)
Attracting switchers
The survey's findings suggest the Tories could attract soft Liberal/Bloc/NDP voters by championing a variety of initiatives such as:
- Reducing wait times for health treatments
- Meeting Canada's Kyoto targets
- Tough on crime
- More money for transit
Standing up to Bush
"Most of them either appeal to our emotional instincts -- like standing up to George Bush, or being tough on crime -- or the other ones are perceived to have some tangible benefits," said Woolstencroft.
On the issue of Afghanistan, the Tories remain in a tough predicament, he said.
"It (Afghanistan) has problems, if they did something immediate it would have problems among their own constituents, their base," said Woolstencroft. "Although clearly the government seems to be moving to pulling out in 2009 from the combat mission and that would probably be smart politics."
Woolstencroft said the challenge for the Liberals is to define themselves as a solid alternative to the Tories.
"They need to galvanize progressive voters that they are the clear anti-Harper (party) and that has the potential of pulling NDP voters and the Green voters over to the Liberals," he said.
Technical Notes
The poll was conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
Interviews were conducted between August 9 and August 12, 2007.
Results are based on tracking among a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
One thousand people were surveyed.
The national margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Quebec sample size is 247, with a 6.3 percentage point margin of error.
