The Taliban's attack on a military parade in Kabul on Sunday is an embarrassment but not necessarily a sign of deteriorating security, says a military expert.
"There's all kinds of Taliban in and around Kabul," retired Maj. Gen. Lewis McKenzie told CTV.ca on Monday.
"So to put something like that together and merely to engage with small arms from a distance ... certainly isn't brain surgery."
However, Steven Staples, president of the Rideau Institute, told CTV.ca that Sunday's attack "certainly isn't a sign of improving security.
"It's alarming. It falls into the trends of rising violence," he said, adding it could be a harbinger of a tough summer in Afghanistan.
The parade was held to mark the 16th anniversary of the collapse of the former Soviet-backed government and was intended to showcase Afghanistan's developing military.
At the end of a 21-gun salute to mark the mujahedeens' victory, the Taliban gunmen opened fire from a guesthouse less than 300 metres from the ceremony, sending soldiers and dignitaries running.
CTV's Paul Workman told Newsnet on Monday from Afghanistan that the insurgents managed to get inside a multi-layered security perimeter that had been set up days in advance.
"Most extraordinary of all, we were told there were police guarding the outside (of the guesthouse), but they had no idea the gunmen were inside," he said, adding this all fuels rumours the insurgent team had some inside help.
The beginning of the attack was broadcast live on national TV. The signal was then cut.
Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai and Arif Lalani, Canada's ambassador to the country, were hustled away from the scene by security personnel.
They were unhurt, but three people were killed, including a parliamentarian, the head of a Shiite minority group and a 10-year-old child. Eight others were wounded, none of them Canadians.
Security forces killed three Taliban attackers, but others may have gotten away. Afghan police have rounded up about 100 people, but have already released many of them.
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujaheed said four insurgents launched the attack.
They were wearing suicide vests and carrying AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades to attack Karzai, he said. However, there was no report of any suicide bombing carried out on Sunday.
McKenzie noted the insurgents didn't manage to harm any top figures like Karzai or Lalani.
"But maybe it was just to demonstrate the ability they could do that (carry out an attack within Kabul) and therefore they did achieve their aim," he said.
Afghanistan had talked about eventually taking over responsibility for Kabul's security from foreign troops, but this incident appears to dash that hope in the short term, Workman said.
"This underscores why NATO feels it has to be here when so many parts of the country, including the capital, are just not secure," he said.
Kabul isn't Baghdad
Kabul saw another major security incident in January. The Serena Hotel, Kabul's first five-star hotel, came under attack and eight people died in that incident.
Some media reports say that Kabul, while obviously a capital in a conflict zone, is nowhere near as dangerous as Baghdad. For example, foreigners can go for evening walks, drive in cars and eat out in restaurants -- all of which are considered almost unthinkable in Baghdad.
Workman told CTV.ca via e-mail that while he can't directly compare Kabul and Baghdad, the Serena attack did cast a pall over the foreign community -- along with a subsquent Taliban threat to attack restaurants catering to foreigners.
"So I would say life has changed a lot for the foreign community -- diplomats have gone back into their security shells -- just when everybody thought was life was getting safer in the city. And now this attack will only add to their jitters," he said.
Staples agreed that Kabul isn't as bad as Baghdad, but he found it worrisome that the Taliban's ability to strike is moving northward.
Some experts in Afghanistan have argued the Taliban are showing more sophistication in their attacks, but McKenzie said, "I don't know how the data supports that."
While the Taliban might be able to send small teams to infiltrate Kabul, it is in no position to take the city, he said.
In comparison, the Taliban were massing around Kandahar in 2005, before Canadian forces arrived, with the goal of retaking "their Jerusalem," McKenzie said.
Canadian troops, following heavy combat in 2006, have left the Taliban only capable of IED attacks in Kandahar province, he said.
But Staples said the fact the U.S. has moved more than 3,000 marines into Afghanistan's south, and will transfer about 1,000 more troops to help Canada, shows that NATO is worried about increasing insurgent activity in that region.
