TORONTO -- New research suggests that people who are undecided about vaccines are more likely to be influenced on Facebook by anti-vaxxer groups than government health officials.
Researchers at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., developed a cluster map that outlined the vaccine conversations among 100 million Facebook users from around the world during the measles outbreak in 2019.
The map, , shows dots of three colours: blue, red and green. The blue dots represent pro-vaccination Facebook groups, including government health officials, the red dots are anti-vaccination Facebook groups, and the green dots are undecided groups.
What the so-called 鈥渂attleground鈥� map shows is that there are about three times as many anti-vaccination groups -- despite being smaller in terms of the overall number of Facebook users -- and are more closely engaging with the undecided groups. Meanwhile, the pro-vaccination groups can be seen more on the outside of the discussion.
鈥淭he blue is actually often in the periphery fighting 鈥� with a few reds near them,鈥� Prof. Neil Johnson, a physics professor at George Washington University and the lead author of the report, told CTVNews.ca in a phone interview. 鈥淚n the main battlefield 鈥� it's just full of red -- with the anti-vaxxers -- which engage with the undecided group.鈥�
Johnson said the anti-vaccination groups are effective in persuading the undecideds because the larger number of groups can target the different narratives when it comes to vaccines, whether it be anti-government sentiment, conspiracy theories, pseudo-science or alternative medicine, to name a few.
This has allowed the anti-vaccination groups to appeal to more of Facebook鈥檚 three billion users, while the pro-vaccination groups tend to stick to messaging surrounding the established health benefits of vaccines.
鈥淲e found that even though the government's 鈥� posting ads in some of these pages, what we call 鈥榓nti-vaxx,鈥� they were still growing,鈥� he said. 鈥淣ot only were they growing, they were connected and being connected to by other communities.鈥�
Johnson鈥檚 report also suggests that these red groups have become more effective for several other reasons:
- the smaller groups are able to operate 鈥渦nder the radar鈥� as the pro-vaccination groups tend to target only the larger anti-vaccination groups;
- the volume of anti-vaccination groups can allow for more direct engagment with the undecided Facebook users; and,
- anti-vaccination groups tend to be more local, meaning they represent a city or region, but are also connected to global groups, which gives the impression of a grassroots movement within a global campaign.
Johnson said a lot of the people associated with the green dots are already at the 鈥渢ipping point鈥� of joining a lot of the red dot groups and once they join the red, it鈥檚 difficult to get them back.
ANTI-VAXXERS AND COVID-19
Johnson said these anti-vaccination groups have now shifted their focus toward a possible COVID-19 vaccine.
鈥淭his is a perfect storm for these people, because it's all about uncertainty,鈥� he said.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e already talking about how it's going to be a rush thing, that it's going to be dangerous, that Bill Gates is doing it, he's going to inject us with microchips as part of the vaccine.鈥�
Using this cluster map, Johnson suggests government agencies can find the real sources of the misinformation on Facebook and begin to effectively fight back against it.
"Instead of playing whack-a-mole with a global network of communities that consume and produce (mis)information, public health agencies, social media platforms and governments can use a map like ours and an entirely new set of strategies to identify where the largest theaters of online activity are and engage and neutralize those communities peddling in misinformation so harmful to the public," Johnson said in a news release.
