KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Coalition forces in Afghanistan face a difficult year in 2010: that's the blunt assessment delivered Thursday by the commander of Canadian soldiers stationed overseas.
"The thing of concern, and I'm not giving you a rosy-coloured outlook, is the level of violence has gone up," Lt.-Gen. Marc Lessard, commander of CEFCOM (Canadian Expeditionary Force Command) said in an interview at Kandahar Airfield.
"Definitely, next year is going to be a tough year. There'll be lots of military operations, no doubt, to degrade and isolate the Taliban -- isolate not just geographically, to push them to areas in the mountains, but to try and isolate them from the population."
Lessard has done a tour of duty in Afghanistan as the commander of Regional Command South, a geographic quadrant of the country which includes the provinces of Nimruz, Helmand, Kandahar, Zabol, Urozgan and Day Kundi.
He said he agrees with the assessment of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the head of NATO forces in Afghanistan, who believes that the next year will be critical for Afghanistan's future.
"We are making tactical success in Kandahar, but overall in the country -- and that's what Gen. McChrystal's saying -- is if you're thinking long-term of establishing security, development and governance, we're a long way from establishing that," Lessard said.
Nor can commanders look at the situation exclusively through the prism of military success or failure, he added.
"When we look at it next fall, the fall of 2010, we will ask, `Are the Taliban degraded, yes or no?' But the important thing is, does the ordinary Afghan, man or woman, have confidence in the government of Afghanistan to deliver good enough security, good enough governance?"
The key as both military personnel and politicians have said over the past several years is ensuring Afghan security forces are suitably trained, equipped and prepared to take over the security of their own country. After decades of foreign troops on Afghan soil, there's a level of distrust of coalition forces that takes time to overcome.
Previous attempts by Canadian troops in this region have initially succeeded but ultimately failed since the Taliban have returned to their old haunts once an operation comes to an end.
The Panjwaii district, a region just southwest of Kandahar city that's widely acknowledged as the birthplace of the Taliban, will continue to be a central focus for coalition troops in 2010, Lessard acknowledged.
Panjwaii, which has borne witness to a great many of Canada's military triumphs and tragedies over the last several years, remains an elusive prize. Coalition forces mount aggressive, successful operations in the area, but thanks to limited resources and personnel, struggle to keep it from falling back into Taliban hands.
"It's going to be a significant operation in Panjwaii (next year)," Lessard said. "So we are going one step at a time but we have to go there. There's a major population there and you gotta deliver."
That effort will involve moving in tandem with Afghan security forces -- permanent units of the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police --who can stay in position and stand their ground to keep insurgents out, he added.
"We don't move, we stay there, for security. The major issue will be how long will it take to get the trust of the locals."
That trust will be key to defeating the insidious scourge of improvised explosive devices, said Lessard. IEDs, which offer the Taliban a cheap and easy-to-build line of defence, are responsible for the bulk of Canada's losses in Afghanistan.
Although the Canadian military has spent "huge money" on costly equipment designed to protect its soldiers from IEDs, barely half of the crudely fashioned roadside bombs are found before they have a chance to explode.
The only way to improve those odds is for security forces to get the assistance of the Afghan people, Lessard said.
"At the end of the day the key is convincing Afghans, who know these people who are putting out IEDs, (to co-operate with the coalition)," he said.
