Â鶹´«Ã½

Politics

    • Trudeau Liberals face uphill battle with ballot support, preferred PM number falling

    Share

    As they gear up to unveil their 2023 budget in a few weeks, the federal Liberals are in an uphill battle against the Conservatives in both ballot support and preferred prime minister numbers, according to Nanos Research.

    With health care still the top national issue of concern for Canadians, the Liberals in January and beginning of February were enjoying a significant uptick in public support -- with their health-care funding deals with the provinces prominently in the headlines.

    It resulted in positive movement for them in Nanos’ weekly ballot tracking over a four-week period, said Nanos Research Chair Nik Nanos on the latest episode of Â鶹´«Ã½ Trend Line.

    “But what we've now seen in the last number of weeks is that the Liberal numbers are going down,†said Nanos.

    Nanos weekly ballot support tracking as of March 15, 2023.

    There was no significant change for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives over the past four weeks, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took a five-percentage point dip.

    “What’s happening right now is the Conservative numbers are holding,†said Nanos, while “there’s been downward pressure on the Liberals.†He added that “any number for the Liberals that has a ‘two’ in front of it is bad news [for them].â€

    VOTE SPLIT SCENARIO

    The NDP numbers, meanwhile, remain flat, while the Bloc Quebecois are up a few percentage points to nine per cent nationally.

    “Nine per cent nationally for the Bloc is actually significantly higher in the province of Quebec,†said Nanos. And with the NDP in the twenties and the Bloc up, “that’s the scenario that creates vote splits,†said Nanos.

    “It creates vote splits in Quebec, it creates vote splits in Ontario, in British Columbia; and those vote splits usually hurt the Liberals and they help when it comes to generating seats both for federal Conservatives and the New Democrats.â€

    PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

    When it comes to leadership and public support, the Liberals find themselves in a similar downward trend as their ballot numbers. Historically, long-term trends show the prime minister with a “baked-in†four- or five-point advantage simply because they’re the head of government.

    “But when you check out the trend right now, you can see almost a perfect between Justin Trudeau in Pierre Poilevre,†said Nanos.

    Nanos' Preferred Prime Minister numbers as of March 15, 2023.

    “Trudeau's down four or five points in the last four weeks. Pierre Polievre's up two. Jagmeet Singh is at 16, which isn't a bad number for the New Democrats,†said Nanos, adding that “whenever you're the incumbent prime minister and you don't have an advantage over your challenger, that's bad news.â€

    STAKES HIGH FOR LIBERALS IN UPCOMING BUDGET

    The federal budget due on March 28 could be an opportunity for the Liberals to turn things around, and Nanos said the “stakes are quite high†for Trudeau’s minority Liberals.

    “Every budget is important for whoever the government of the day happens to be, because it's usually a platform to dominate the narrative in the news and get your message out,†said Nanos. But the complicating factor for the Liberals is their agreement with the NDP to support the minority Liberal government on key votes in the House of Commons to avoid triggering an election.

    “The big question is, what will there be in the federal budget that the Liberals will have, to placate or ameliorate the New Democrats? And what will [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh be asking for? I think the reality is that the NDP are probably going to support the budget, regardless, because I'm not sure if they want an election right now. But depending on how closely the Liberals appease or not appease the New Democrats, that'll probably be the first signal as to how long this particular parliament could last.â€

    Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next episode comes out Wednesday, March 29, the day after the federal budget is released.

    IN DEPTH

    Opinion

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster

    A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

    When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    Canada

    • The British Columbia election campaign is set to officially start today, with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin issuing the writ for the Oct. 19 vote.

    • A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.

    • Pasquale Monaco says he’s debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded — again — in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.

    • Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.

    • The London Police Service (LPS) is currently investigating a suspicious death in the east end.

    • One person has died following a shooting in Scarborough late last night.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    • The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a nickname for the opposition’s end zone. They refer to it as the “chicken box.â€

    • Jonathan Aranda homered for the second consecutive game, helping Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 on Saturday.

    • Kiefer Sherwood spent several nights last spring chasing Quinn Hughes around the ice and generally pestering the Vancouver Canucks.

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.

    Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    • A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.

    • Volunteers and staff members gathered along Vancouver’s Stanley Park Seawall Saturday to pick up litter as part of International Coastal Cleanup Day.

    • A heritage home in Vancouver suffered "extensive damage" in a fire that broke out late Saturday morning, according to firefighters.

    • One person has died following a shooting in Scarborough late last night.

    • Toronto police have arrested three people and they are looking for two others in connection with an alleged fraud that saw a man and his daughter bilked out of more than $18,000.

    • A man who was critically injured in an eight-vehicle pileup in Milton Friday has died of his injuries in hospital.

    • Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.

    • Calgary fire crews were busy early Sunday dealing with a fire, a missing cat and a vehicle that drove into the side of a garage.

    • Milla White from Cochrane literally drew her way into a meeting with former boxer and actor Mickey Rourke.

    • It's been one year since Michael Andlauer took over ownership of the Ottawa Senators and on Saturday, he spoke for the first time about the tentative deal for a new arena at LeBreton Flats.

    • A potential move to LeBreton Flats for the Ottawa Senators is still years away, but questions and concerns are already being raised about what to do with the Canadian Tire Centre.

    • The Taste of Wellington 2024 wraps up Saturday in Ottawa.

    • Last month’s massive water main break in Montreal’s Ville Marie borough has left the company Cirque Eloize reeling, with nearly 10,000 items from their storage facility destroyed.

    • Pasquale Monaco says he’s debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded — again — in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.

    • A 19-year-old man is in critical condition after being stabbed in Montreal on Saturday.

    • Edmonton police are advising that 149 Street northbound and southbound is closed from 103 Ave. to 106 Avenue due to a serious collision that took place early Sunday morning.

    • The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a nickname for the opposition’s end zone. They refer to it as the “chicken box.â€

    • Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.

    • A proposal for additional parking to accommodate upgrades at the Irving Pulp & Paper Mill in Saint John, N.B., would add an estimated 500 parking spots at Wolastoq Park.

    • A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.

    • A 76-year-old man who was reported missing Saturday in Annapolis District, N.S., has been found deceased.

    • The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.

    • A herd of dogs paid visit to patients and residents at Riverview Health Centre during an annual event that lifts spirits and wags tails.

    • While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.

    • Fire officials are investigating after a fire completely destroyed the community fridge in the Cathedral neighborhood.

    • The last two months after losing her daughter Bella have been extremely difficult for Kyla Thomson.

    • Regina police arrested three youths in connection to a bear mace incident at a Regina high school on Friday.

    • Brantford, Ont. residents were met with an unexpected sight on Saturday evening as a suspected funnel cloud appeared in the skies above the city.

    • The Cambridge Professional Fire Fighters’ Association held their annual Muscular Dystrophy Boot Drive on Saturday.

    • Police said the pedestrian, a 52-year-old man, was taken to an out-of-region hospital with life-threatening injuries and the driver of the vehicle failed to remain at the scene.

    • The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.

    • Saskatchewan RCMP major crimes unit is investigating after a man’s body was found on Sweetgrass First Nation.

    • Motors were roaring, and tires were spinning as Saskatoon's biggest names in motocross gathered together for the 50-year anniversary of the club's founding on Saturday.

    • video

      video

      The most popular hockey podcasters on the planet brought some major attention to the Forest City this weekend with the annual Chiclets Cup.

    • The identity of a motorcyclist has been revealed by loved ones on social media following Friday’s fatal south end collision in London. The London Police Service has not released anything regarding the driver’s identity.

    • Huron County OPP are investigating a serious single vehicle collision that took place west of Seaforth.

    • The Barrie Skateboard Association (BSA) hosted a unique competition at the City's Skate Park on Saturday to celebrate its 25th anniversary, which showcased the park's importance and the growth of skateboarding in the region.

    • Police located and arrested a male suspect Saturday evening in relation to an alleged assault incident that occurred earlier this week in Gooderham.

    • A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.

    • video

      video

      The Amherstburg Uncommon Festival is living up to its name with the addition of a drone light show — a first for Essex County.

    • The Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) has arrested a man following an incident on Saturday.

    • A disturbance in Ridgetown has led to charges, according to the Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS).

    • A man who was found dead behind a curling rink in Nanaimo, B.C., earlier this month was the victim of a homicide, police confirmed.

    • A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.

    • A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • Despite the heavy rain, plenty of muscle turned up for United Way’s annual Pull the Bus fundraiser in Lethbridge Friday.

    • Lethbridge County has rescinded its fire restriction as a result of the recent cool, wet weathr.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes kicked off the 2024-25 season on a winning note Friday night, defeating the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-1 in a game played at VisitLethbridge.com Arena.

    • A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.

    • Following an outbreak of COVID-19 on its continuing care floor and just ahead of the flu season, St. Joseph’s General Hospital in Elliot Lake has opted to re-introduce a universal masking policy until further notice.

    • A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.

    N.L.

    Stay Connected
    Follow Â鶹´«Ã½