The NDP could be looking at seat gains in La Belle Province this fall, while the Conservatives and Liberals fight to maintain their numbers, according to a Quebec political scientist.
McGill political science professor Antonia Maioni told CTVâs Power Play that if the New Democrats continue to dominate polls in Quebec, the party may see a result that tops its stunning performance in 2011.
âWhatâs interesting right now is that the NDP numbers are better than they were even in 2011,â said Maioni. âIf the trend continues, the NDP could be looking at seat gains in Quebec.â
According to the , the NDP has taken a strong lead in Quebec at 37 per cent, with the Liberals at 28 per cent and the Bloc at 19 per cent. The Conservatives trail behind in the province with 12 per cent support.
Maioni predicts that the lesser-known MPs elected in 2011 as a part of the NDPâs âOrange Crushâ will help the party again this fall, as they ride the âsecond wave of the NDP."
âTheyâve made their name known in their ridings,â said Maioni, who once taught some of the youngest NDP MPs, known as the âMcGill four.â
âTheyâve gone from being what we call lamp posts to actually being engaged members of Parliament. And I think thatâs a testament to their energy and also the NDPâs deeper commitment to Quebec.â
All three party leaders have been spending a significant amount of time in Quebec, trying to ramp up support ahead of the Oct. 19 vote.
But at this point, Maioni doubts whether those efforts are working for Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, .
âSeat gains are probably a little less certain than Mr. Harper and the Conservatives would have hoped for going into this election campaign,â said Maioni. âHowever, Mr. Harper hasnât given up on Quebec.â
Maioni says Harper is still banking on at least maintaining seats in the Quebec City area, where many âblue votersâ reside.
And she doubts that the Liberals will gain any new seats.
âThe Liberals have been on the road to nowhere in Quebec for quite a while now. Not sure that they are going to do much better than that rump of Montreal seats.â