'Getting squeezed on both sides': Liberals a distant third among younger voters
The federal Liberals are seeing a dive in popularity among younger voters, once the core of their base, falling 23 points behind the Conservatives by the end of August, according to new polling from Nanos Research.
The data shows the Liberals in a distant third place for 18-29 year olds with 15.97 per cent, compared to the Conservatives and the NDP with 39.21 per cent and 30.92 per cent respectively.
It’s a dip for the Liberals, who were at 26.8 per cent at the beginning of August for the same age group. And it’s a boost for the Conservatives, who are up from 29.3 per cent at the beginning of the month.
“I would be very concerned if I were the Liberals,†said Nik Nanos, Â鶹´«Ã½â€™ pollster and Nanos Research’s chief data scientist and founder. He told CTVNews.ca the party has to do three things to win the next election, currently slated for 2025: win back women who have pivoted their support to other parties, mobilize younger voters under one progressive banner, and be more competitive among male voters.
“Right now the Conservatives are really doing well among male voters, they're more competitive among female voters than they have been, and the Conservatives are now doing well among younger voters,†he said. “That means that the Liberal coalition that was built in 2015, the movement led by (Prime Minister) Justin Trudeau, is slowly unraveling, and they've got to reverse this trend if they want to have any chance to hold on to government.â€
The new numbers from Nanos Research come while Trudeau has seemingly been trying to appeal to the younger demographic. Last week, while wrapping up a multi-day meeting of his ministers with a message to young people, he said: "We owe it to you to take action."
SPLITTING OFF IN ‘TWO DIRECTIONS’
From housing affordability to climate change, Trudeau attempted to reach out directly to the demographic that's helped him win past elections.
“In 2015, younger Canadians embraced the Liberals and Justin Trudeau thinking that things would be different,†Nanos said. “They wanted a change from the past, those ‘sunny ways.’
“Fast forward now to 2023, and it looks like young Canadians are deserting the Liberals, but the interesting thing is they're going in two directions,†he also said, adding former young Liberal voters are splitting off and dividing their support between the Conservatives and the NDP.
Those who are feeling the strain of an affordability crisis tend to be shifting toward the Conservatives, Nanos said, while many feel the Liberals are not doing enough on issues like climate change, and they want more progressive policies, so they’re moving toward the New Democrats.
“The Liberals are getting squeezed on both sides, where young people are swinging to the progressive left because they want action, and then to the Conservatives for those young Canadians that are struggling to pay the bills and figure they've got nothing to lose by potentially having Pierre Poilievre as prime minister,†Nanos said.
The prime minister is also meeting with his youth advisory board this week to hear its most “pressing concerns,†with the aim of informing future policy decisions. It is the first in-person meeting of this cohort of the Prime Minister’s Youth Council; its new members have been in place since February of this year.
Aside from a handful of exceptions, the Liberals have mostly stayed in third place among voters aged 18-29 since the beginning of the year, according to Nanos Research.
DREAM OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING ‘SHATTERED’ FOR MANY
For voters in the 30-39 age range, while there’s been a closer back-and-forth between the Liberals and the NDP since January, the Conservatives have fairly consistently come out ahead, something Nanos chalks up to “economic anxiety.â€
“What type of young person can afford to buy a home when the value of homes are going up? And it's a double whammy because interest rates are going up,†he said. “The dream of having affordable housing in Canada is just being shattered right now.â€
“It usually takes you a little while to be a little grumpy like your parents on stuff like this,†he also said. “I think they're turning into their parents a little sooner in terms of looking at their pocketbook and voting with pocketbook issues, and the Liberals have got to watch out for that.â€
The pollster added if the Liberals want to win the next election, they need to “pivot to meat-and-potato issues†while balancing progressive politics on issues like the environment, which is currently the number one issue of concern for Canadians.
With files from CTVNews.ca Senior Digital Parliamentary Reporter Rachel Aiello
IN DEPTH
Jagmeet Singh pulls NDP out of deal with Trudeau Liberals, takes aim at Poilievre Conservatives
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pulled his party out of the supply-and-confidence agreement that had been helping keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's minority Liberals in power.
'Not the result we wanted': Trudeau responds after surprise Conservative byelection win in Liberal stronghold
Conservative candidate Don Stewart winning the closely-watched Toronto-St. Paul's federal byelection, and delivering a stunning upset to Justin Trudeau's candidate Leslie Church in the long-time Liberal riding, has sent political shockwaves through both parties.
'We will go with the majority': Liberals slammed by opposition over proposal to delay next election
The federal Liberal government learned Friday it might have to retreat on a proposal within its electoral reform legislation to delay the next vote by one week, after all opposition parties came out to say they can't support it.
Budget 2024 prioritizes housing while taxing highest earners, deficit projected at $39.8B
In an effort to level the playing field for young people, in the 2024 federal budget, the government is targeting Canada's highest earners with new taxes in order to help offset billions in new spending to enhance the country's housing supply and social supports.
'One of the greatest': Former prime minister Brian Mulroney commemorated at state funeral
Prominent Canadians, political leaders, and family members remembered former prime minister and Progressive Conservative titan Brian Mulroney as an ambitious and compassionate nation-builder at his state funeral on Saturday.
Opinion
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
opinion Don Martin: The doctor Trudeau dumped has a prescription for better health care
Political columnist Don Martin sat down with former federal health minister Jane Philpott, who's on a crusade to help fix Canada's broken health care system, and who declined to take any shots at the prime minister who dumped her from caucus.
opinion Don Martin: Trudeau's seeking shelter from the housing storm he helped create
While Justin Trudeau's recent housing announcements are generally drawing praise from experts, political columnist Don Martin argues there shouldn’t be any standing ovations for a prime minister who helped caused the problem in the first place.
opinion Don Martin: Poilievre has the field to himself as he races across the country to big crowds
It came to pass on Thursday evening that the confidentially predictable failure of the Official Opposition non-confidence motion went down with 204 Liberal, BQ and NDP nays to 116 Conservative yeas. But forcing Canada into a federal election campaign was never the point.
opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike
When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'We have a responsibility:' Trudeau urges global leaders to support pact for future
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is telling world leaders to either bury their heads in the sand or put differences aside for the sake of future generations.
An Edmonton man says he was in the wrong place at the wrong time when he was injured by members of the Edmonton Police Service last year.
Air Canada union head says she'll resign if pilots reject deal
The head of the Air Canada pilots union says she'll step down if members opt not to approve a tentative deal with the airline, raising the stakes as aviators mull whether to accept hefty salary gains or drive an even harder bargain.
GM workers at CAMI auto plant ratify collective agreement, Unifor says
Unifor says workers at General Motors' CAMI assembly plant and battery facility in southwestern Ontario have ratified a new collective agreement.
BREAKING
The brother of a 27-year-old man who was fatally shot in Scarborough over the weekend has been arrested and charged in connection with his death, say police.
John Mulaney and Olivia Munn have second child, a daughter named Mei
Comedian John Mulaney and actor Olivia Munn now have a second child, a daughter named Mei June Mulaney.
Kate, the Princess of Wales, makes first public appearance after cancer treatment
Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
2 suspended from U.S. college swim team after report of slur scratched onto student's body
At least two students at Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania have been suspended from the swim team after a report that a racial slur was scratched onto a student's body, officials said.
How does your health measure up? Criticism of long-time tool used to track progress
Body mass index, a long-time tool used to measure a person's health, may soon be out the door as some health professionals push for a system they say is more accurate.
Local Spotlight
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.