TORONTO -- After the Progressive Conservatives unseated the incumbent Liberals in a surprise, majority win in Nova Scotia on Tuesday night, Nanos Research鈥檚 Nik Nanos says the result could be an indication that parties will have to run on more than their pandemic record in the federal election.
Premier-designate Tim Houston led the Progressive Conservatives to a majority win over Iain Rankin鈥檚 Liberals after a campaign focused primarily on fixing the province鈥檚 troubled health-care system.
鈥淲hat happened in Nova Scotia was that the Conservatives won not on the pandemic, but on health care,鈥� Nanos said on the latest episode of Trend Line. 鈥淸They] promised more doctors, more investment in health care and it looks like the Liberals were running on their record for the pandemic.鈥�
Nanos said Nova Scotian voters showed they were looking for a party focused on the future and not the past 鈥� a possible harbinger for the upcoming federal election.
鈥淭he pandemic is not enough. It鈥檚 good, but it's not enough to win any election at this particular point in time,鈥� he said.
While it appeared to be enough earlier on in the pandemic 鈥� the incumbent leaders in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and the Yukon all remained in power during their provincial elections 鈥� Nanos said that trend might be coming to an end.
鈥淭he streak is dead,鈥� he said. 鈥淣o incumbent governments in Canada at the provincial level for all of the elections have either been rewarded with the same or even a stronger mandate. Nova Scotia has broken that streak with the win of the conservatives.鈥�
Although it鈥檚 early days still, Nanos said it will be interesting to see whether the federal Liberals will suffer a similar fate to the Nova Scotian Liberals and lose their incumbency.
It鈥檚 already clear that health care is top of mind during the start of the federal election campaign with the debate around mandatory COVID-19 vaccinations becoming an early wedge issue among the main parties.
Nanos said the Liberals have been trying to portray Erin O鈥橳oole and the Conservatives as being against vaccines, when, in fact, the Tory leader has received his shots and supports them. However, O鈥橳oole has been pushing for rapid testing for COVID-19 for federal workers and travellers instead of mandatory vaccinations for all.
鈥淭he Liberals are still trying to keep the vaccination as an issue to put the Conservatives on the defensive,鈥� he said.
DEFINING LEADERSHIP
Health care wasn鈥檛 the only issue at the forefront of the federal election campaign this week. The Taliban鈥檚 dramatic takeover of Afghanistan and Canada鈥檚 evacuation of its citizens and those Afghans who helped the Canadian military during their time there was also in the spotlight.
Nanos said an issue like this could define a party leader鈥檚 image during an election, citing Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and former Conservative Leader Stephen Harper鈥檚 responses to the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015. He said Trudeau 鈥� who he described as an 鈥渦pstart鈥� at the time 鈥� distinguished himself from Harper with his compassionate response to the tragedy while his opponent focused on security and controlling immigration into Canada.
鈥淭hese types of issues, although they're not deciding issues in a campaign because foreign policy is rarely a deciding issue in the campaign, can help define the party leaders in terms of how they respond,鈥� he said.
The election edition of Trend Line publishes in the morning every Monday, Wednesday and Friday during the campaign.
