During a recent debate at Toronto鈥檚 Aga Khan Museum, Conservative candidate Karim Jivraj found himself engaged in a heated exchange over the proposed ban on niqabs during Canadian citizenship ceremonies.
The debate -- organized primarily by and for Muslim youth -- saw Jivraj square off against candidates from the three other main political parties on a series of issues, including youth unemployment, citizenship and immigration, the Syrian refugee crisis and security.
Jivraj found himself defending several Conservative policies unpopular with many in the packed auditorium, including Bills and .
Halfway through the debate, Green Party candidate Adnan Shahbaz, who is Muslim, delivered an emotional speech on the proposed niqab ban, accusing the Conservatives of politicizing the face-covering.
"They don't need to be talked about in federal politics at all," he said to rousing applause. "We have the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, and we have the Supreme Court, whose job is to back the Charter of Rights and the Constitution. If the Supreme Court says niqabs are allowed, they're allowed."
Jivraj, who is also Muslim and the son of East African immigrants, shot back, arguing Muslims are a diverse group with a range of political views.
鈥淎 lot of people try to describe the party to which I belong as somehow anti-Islam and anti-Muslim,鈥� Jivraj said.
鈥淭he Muslim community is not homogenous: we are individuals, we think differently. And I don鈥檛 think any particular political party has a monopoly on how we think or how we vote.鈥�
The candidates debate the issues at the Muslim Youth Debate in Toronto, Sept. 18, 2015. (Marlene Leung / CTVNews.ca)
Analysts agree immigrant and ethnic communities could play a major role in determining who wins the Oct. 19 federal election. But winning support from new Canadians is not a given, with these communities being immensely diverse, and no single party having a hold on their support.
According to the 2011 National Household Survey, 19.1 per cent of Canada's population , and 20.6 per cent of the total population was foreign-born.
The vast majority of the foreign-born population lives in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec and Alberta, and most live in those provinces' urban centres.
The distribution patterns of these populations matter for political parties: In 33 of the 338 federal ridings, more than half of the population identifies as a visible minority, says Andrew Griffith, author of "Multiculturalism in Canada: Evidence and Anecdote."
The Aga Khan Museum, where the Muslim youth debate was held, is located in one of these ridings.
Just northeast of Toronto鈥檚 downtown core, 54 per cent of the residents in are immigrants and 56 per cent identify as visible minorities, according to the 2011 National Household Survey. South Asians represent about 16 per cent of the population, and Muslims account for 20 per cent.
Attendees arrive to watch the Muslim Youth Debate in Toronto, Ont., Sept. 18, 2015. (Marlene Leung / CTVNews.ca)
In some ridings in the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas, more than 70 per cent of residents identify as an visible minority.
If you need proof of the importance of these ridings, simply look to where the party leaders are spending a significant portion of their time on the campaign trail, says Griffith.
Whether it's in the "905" area surrounding Toronto or in B.C.'s Lower Mainland, that's where politicians believe the election could be won, Griffith told CTVNews.ca. Or, at the very least, those areas could be influential in terms of winning seats.
The ridings below are ridings where more than 70 per cent of the population identifies as a visible minority. Click a riding to read more information. (Data from )
Groups are not monoliths
While ethnic communities can play an important role in a tight electoral race, political science professor Robert MacDermid warns that presuming these populations will vote as a block is a 鈥渉uge assumption.鈥�
"Certainly, there are enough ridings where (ethnic) populations are large enough that they could potentially sway the election if they voted in a block,鈥� MacDermid told CTVNews.ca.
"I would warn against treating these groups as monoliths 鈥� I see these communities as much more diverse than how we understand the (political) parties have addressed them."
While the Liberals have traditionally been viewed as the party most aligned with new Canadian communities, the Conservatives and the NDP have made inroads in recent years, he says.
The Conservatives have spent years touting their platform with older immigrant voters, as well as those with business-minded or pro-market values, MacDermid notes.
In particular, much has been written about Multiculturalism Minister Jason Kenney's work in past years building bridges with these communities by attending countless community events.
Meanwhile, he says, the NDP appears to have found a level of support with younger voters from ethnic communities, as well as second-generation Canadians.
MacDermid has seen this among his own students -- made evident during a class exercise he conducts each year.
For this particular activity, he asks his students to create political ads for each of the federal parties.
"For many years, they all wanted to make Liberal and Conservative ads,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut for the last couple of years, all of these groups have wanted to make NDP ads.鈥�
Intergenerational divide
This seeming shift toward the left among younger voters is supported by published by the left-leaning Broadbent Institute.
The study, published in May, found while most Canadians "display progressive attitudes," those 35 and younger are more left-wing than older Canadians.
Using data from 8,121 survey respondents across all 10 provinces, the study found younger Canadians are more supportive of a socially liberal government that will act to protect the environment and fund health care and education programs through higher taxes.
This generational gap is generally seen in all parts of the country, with small differences based on region and education level.
There are also certain issues that are more important for newer immigrants compared to those who have been in the country for a longer period of time, says Griffith. Generally speaking, he suggested policies affecting immigration and citizenship are more important to newer Canadians.
'This is my identity, this is my home'
After the debate at the Aga Khan Museum, debate volunteer Sanaa Ali-Mohammed spoke of what issues are most important to her.
鈥淚 had a really hard time finding work as a recent graduate with a master鈥檚 degree, but not very much real-world experience,鈥� she said, noting her initial struggle to find a job. 鈥淪o that is what鈥檚 important for me -- what鈥檚 happening in the Canadian economy.鈥�
She鈥檚 lists a lack of transparency in politics and women鈥檚 equality as other issues that she cares deeply about.
She鈥檚 also concerned with what she calls the 鈥渢argeting鈥� of Muslim women who opt to wear the niqab, pointing to the overturned ban as one example. (The Conservatives have said they will appeal the case to the Supreme Court of Canada.)
鈥淚 don鈥檛 cover my face, it鈥檚 a minority of women who do,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut I feel like this targeting of the face covering is telling me that my identity is unwelcome in Canada.鈥�
The 26-year-old lives in , where 63 per cent of the residents are immigrants and 67 per cent identified as a visible minority on the 2011 National Household Survey.
Ali-Mohammed said she notices differences in her own political views compared to those of her parents, who immigrated to Canada in the 1970s from Pakistan. She hasn鈥檛 yet decided how she鈥檒l vote.
鈥淔or me, voting is about seeing my voice represented,鈥� she said. 鈥淚 think for my parents, they do value voting and see it as something they should do, but I think they see it as more of a transactional relationship.
鈥淔or me, this is my identity. This is my home, and I want to make it a better place for everyone. Not just for myself or a group that I belong to.鈥�
MacDermid says it's not unusual for children of immigrants to see themselves as part of the wider population, as many have fully grown up in this country.
"They don't necessarily see themselves as part of this monolithic ethnic group; they see themselves as Canadian people, young Canadians."
