The race to be voters' preferred prime minister remains tight, nightly tracking by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows.

According to the latest survey:

  • 30.2 per cent of respondents would prefer Conservative Leader Stephen Harper as prime minister
  • 27.5 per cent would prefer Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
  • 27.3 per cent would prefer NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
  • 4.5 per cent of Canadians preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May as PM
  • 8.9 per cent were unsure.

Voters were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

Trudeau makes gains:

Compared to a month ago, tracking shows that preferences for Harper and Mulcair have remained relatively unchanged. Trudeau, however, has seen his popularity grow.

One month ago, 21.3 per cent of Canadians surveyed said they would prefer the Liberal leader as prime minister. In the latest survey, his numbers were up approximately six percentage points, sitting at 27.5 per cent.

According to Nanos, Trudeau's numbers have trended up as the impact of the attack ads he faced earlier has started to subside.

Second choice for PM:

Among those who prefer Trudeau as PM, 60 per cent picked Mulcair as their second choice.

Among Canadians who prefer Mulcair as PM, 56 per cent said their second choice was Trudeau.

For those who prefer Harper as PM, 25 per cent identified Trudeau as their second choice and 25 per cent identified Mulcair as their second choice (42 per cent had no second choice).

Nanos Party Power Index:

The NDP scored highest on the Index with 55.5 out of a possible 100 points with the Liberals scoring 53.3 points, the Conservatives 49.1 points, the Green Party 28.9 points and the Bloc Quebecois (Quebec only) 28 points.

The Index is a composite score based on a series of measures, including ballot and leadership preferences.

Survey Methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening, a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped.

The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This margin varies for subpopulations, such as supporters for respective leaders.

Full survey at

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