The federal election remains in a three-way statistical tie, according to the latest polling by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

The latest numbers for the three leading parties:

  • Conservatives: 31.0 per cent
  • Liberals: 29.6 per cent
  • NDP: 30.4 per cent

Voters were asked: "If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?"

The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. Each evening, 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The tracking is updated each day by adding information from a new day and dropping the oldest day.

The margin of error for a survey of 1,091 decided voters is ±3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Regions

  • The Conservatives are leading in the Prairie provinces with 50.3 per cent.
  • In Quebec and British Columbia, the NDP register as the most popular party. In British Columbia, 35.3 per cent of respondents picked the New Democrats as their top choice. In Quebec, 41.8 per cent did.
  • The Liberals have the highest support in Atlantic Canada, with 47.3 per cent.
  • In Ontario, the Conservatives have the highest support with 34.3 per cent.
  • Regional margins of error: British Columbia: 7.7 per cent, Prairies: 6.7 per cent, Ontario: 5.5 per cent, Quebec: 6.0 per cent, Atlantic: 9.6 per cent.

Second Choice

When asked to rank their second choice:

  • Of those who ranked the Liberals first, 53 per cent picked the NDP second, 20 per cent would pick the Conservatives as their second choice, and 14 per cent said they have no second choice.
  • Of those who chose the NDP as their top pick, 54 per cent said the Liberals would be their second choice, 18 per cent would pick the Green Party as their second choice, and 13 per cent said they have no second choice.
  • Among those who favoured the Conservatives, 38 per cent said they have no second choice, 34 per cent said they would pick Liberals as their second choice, and 18 per cent said they would pick the NDP as their second choice.

Poll Methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Preferred prime minister

While the main federal parties are statistically tied in the polls, the most recent leadership survey by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail shows some movement when it comes to the preferred prime minister measure.

Survey respondents were asked "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

According to the latest numbers:

  • 31.6 per cent of respondents picked Conservative Leader Stephen Harper
  • 28.5 per cent preferred NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
  • 24.3 per cent said Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau

While the numbers remain close, Trudeau has seen a three-day slide in the preferred prime minister results.

The nation dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research through the campaign using live agents. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Full poll at

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