Â鶹´«Ã½

Politics

    • 'Dream scenario' for Poilievre as Conservatives open up 20-point lead with NDP, Liberals tied

    Share

    The latest Nanos Research numbers show Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservative Party have not only opened up a big lead in ballot support — but Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have fallen into a statistical tie with the NDP.

    The latest Nanos ballot tracking puts the Conservative Party at 41.6 per cent, more than 20 points ahead of the Liberal Party, which fell to 21.5 per cent – down four points in four weeks.

    The NDP have actually inched ahead of the Liberals at 21.6 per cent.

    “This is a dream scenario for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives,†said Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos on the latest episode of Â鶹´«Ã½ Trend Line.

    “He's got a 20-point advantage and the progressives are perfectly split.â€

    It’s the first time since September 2015, before Trudeau became prime minister, that the Liberals have had less ballot support than the NDP, though the 0.1 per cent deficit is still within the poll’s margin of error.

    Nanos ballot support 4-week change (Nanos Research

    Nanos said it’s good news for the New Democrats — and “absolutely terrible†for the Liberals.

    “They've got to stop hemorrhaging support, because this could be a potential political death spiral for the Liberals if this trend continues,†Nanos said. “They've got to try to figure out what they're going to do to try to stay afloat and be competitive right now.â€

    With a 20-point gap, Nanos said right now, it’s really a battle for second place.

    “Liberals aren't really competing against the Conservatives, actually,†he said. “Right now, they're fighting for their lives against Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats.â€

    Seat projections: Liberals fading

    According to Nanos seat projections – which calculates how popular support would translate into winning ridings if an election were to be held today -- Liberal red is also fading from the map.

    In the Toronto and Hamilton, Ont., area an almost clean-sweep of Liberal seats in 2021 has turned into a mix of Conservative and undecided seats.

    In the images below, on the left are the results from the 2021 federal election, with the right-hand side showing changes based on current modelling. Ridings shown in black are considered too close to call.

    Nanos seat projections showing Golden Horseshoe region (Nanos Research)

    “The Conservatives [are] making significant gains in Toronto, and this speaks to what traditionally has been a Liberal fortress basically unwinding completely,†Nanos said.

    In the Ottawa area as well, the Liberals have lost ground.

    “There are ridings like Ottawa Centre that basically now are a statistical tossup between the New Democrats and the Liberals,†Nanos said. “But you also see basically the Conservatives picking up in suburban Ottawa.â€

    Nanos seat projections showing national capital region (Nanos Research)

    Nanos paints the same picture in the Vancouver area, with only one seat currently leaning Liberal.

    Nanos seat projections showing Vancouver area ridings (Nanos Research)

    “That battleground is favouring the Conservatives with the Conservatives picking up a number of ridings in the Vancouver area,†Nanos said.

    “The NDP might be interesting to watch in Vancouver because if Liberal support drops, those [voters] can strategically vote NDP to try to block the Conservatives.â€

    And in the Atlantic region, only one seat is currently favouring the Liberals.

    Nanos seat projections showing the Atlantic region (Nanos Research)

    “There's still that one Liberal riding in northern New Brunswick that's holding on,†Nanos said.

    Watch the full episode of Trend Line in our video player at the top of this article. You can also listen in our audio player below, or wherever you get your podcasts.

    Methodology

    1,045 random interviews recruited from an RDD land- and cell-line sample of Canadians aged 18 years and over, ending September 27, 2024. The data is based on a four-week rolling average where each week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 is added. A random survey of 1,045 Canadians is accurate 3.0 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

    Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?

    IN DEPTH

    Opinion

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster

    A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?

    opinion

    opinion Don Martin: How a beer break may have doomed the carbon tax hike

    When the Liberal government chopped a planned beer excise tax hike to two per cent from 4.5 per cent and froze future increases until after the next election, says political columnist Don Martin, it almost guaranteed a similar carbon tax move in the offing.

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    A 27-year-old man is facing several charges after police observed a vehicle travelling 134 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 174 in Ottawa's east end.

    A Pickering, Ont., student going to college to be a mechanic is shocked the engine in his two-year-old car will not be repaired under warranty after the dealership claimed he had been 'over-revving' the engine.

    Canada

    • The jury at the trial of a second-degree murder suspect in Sudbury on Wednesday heard graphic details of the crime scene discovered in a Kathleen Street apartment on Boxing Day 2020.

    • Alberta will not allow the sale of liquor in grocery and convenience stores, the province announced on Wednesday.

    • An energy company that runs a natural gas well north of Calgary says a roughly 24-hour fire that injured five workers has finally been snuffed out.

    • A 27-year-old man is facing several charges after police observed a vehicle travelling 134 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 174 in Ottawa's east end.

    • The NATO DIANA North American headquarters opened in Halifax Wednesday, marking a milestone moment for security and defence innovation advancement.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    • Market experts say the coming boom in artificial intelligence has the potential to spur large-scale investments in clean energy.

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    Autos

    • Canadian-made Chrysler Grand Caravans have seen sales jump over the third quarter and calendar year. According to FCA Canada, sales were up by 79 per cent this quarter and up 85 per cent for the calendar-year to date.

    • A Pickering, Ont., student going to college to be a mechanic is shocked the engine in his two-year-old car will not be repaired under warranty after the dealership claimed he had been 'over-revving' the engine.

    Local Spotlight

    The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.

    On Saturday night at her parents’ home in Delaware, Ont. the Olympic bronze medallist in pole vault welcomed everyone who played a role in getting her to the podium in Paris.

    A tale about a taxicab hauling gold and sinking through the ice on Larder Lake, Ont., in December 1937 has captivated a man from that town for decades.

    When a group of B.C. filmmakers set out on a small fishing boat near Powell River last week, they hoped to capture some video for a documentary on humpback whales. What happened next blew their minds.

    A pizza chain in Edmonton claims to have the world's largest deliverable pizza.

    Sarah McLachlan is returning to her hometown of Halifax in November.

    Wayne MacKay is still playing basketball twice at Mount Allison University at 87 years old.

    A man from a small rural Alberta town is making music that makes people laugh.

    An Indigenous artist has a buyer-beware warning ahead of Sept. 30, the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

    • Three young suspects have been arrested in connection with a swarming attack on a teenager in B.C.'s Okanagan last week – and authorities have asked the public to stop circulating disturbing videos of the incident.

    • An island on Vancouver Island's Sproat Lake, "Sunset Island" is up for sale.

    • British Columbia's nagging drought could be eased by an incoming weather pattern that may bring a colder and wetter than normal winter, says Sean Fleming, an adjunct UBC professor of atmospheric sciences.

    • Police said 26-year-old Joey Omar Black was found shot in the parking lot of a shopping centre near Allen Road and Lawrence Avenue West just before midnight on Monday.

    • Premier Doug Ford says work is officially underway on all parts of the new Ontario Line subway in Toronto, a project that is expected to massively expand public transit capacity in the city.

    • A private religious studies tutor has been arrested after allegedly sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy last month.

    • A formal investigation into a fatal plane crash west of Calgary that killed six people in 2023 says the pilot was ill prepared and was driven by 'personal desire' to make the flight.

    • Vecova has announced the planned closure of its main facility on 33 Street N.W.

    • Calgary police are looking for a teen who's been missing for two weeks.

    • An Ottawa councillor has posted video on social media of what appears to be a close call with a car while biking in Ottawa.

    • A 27-year-old man is facing several charges after police observed a vehicle travelling 134 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 174 in Ottawa's east end.

    • Military police are investigating the death of a student at the Royal Military College (RMC) in Kingston, Ont.

    • The Los Angeles Kings have arrived in Quebec City to kick off the final stretch of their NHL training camp, in a trip that's buoyed by millions of dollars in public money.

    • Premier Francois Legault says the federal government should force asylum seekers arriving in Quebec to move to other provinces, including people who have already settled in the province.

    • Wine lovers were busy last weekend snatching up some of the most expensive bottles for sale on the Quebec liquor board's website after an error led to an accidental discount of 30 per cent on everything.

    • An Edmonton man has pleaded guilty to 11 charges related to a child luring and sexual assault investigation.

    • The Canadian Finals Rodeo (CFR) kicked off their return to Edmonton with a bang.

    • Charges have been stayed against a man accused of attacking four people with a machete in Edmonton last year.

    • Police in Fredericton are investigating a homicide after a man who was assaulted last week died from his injuries.

    • The Saint John Police Force is investigating a sudden death after the body of a man was found at a tent encampment in the city.

    • Police in Cape Breton are searching for a Nova Scotia man who is wanted for an attempted murder in Millbrook, N.S.

    • The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.

    • Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has apologized to defence lawyers for comments he made in ousting one of his caucus members.

    • Winkler has lost a ten-year veteran of its city council and a lifelong community champion.

    • Over one hundred volunteers gathered at the Mamaweyatitan Centre on Tuesday night to help conduct the 2024 Point In Time (PIT) Count.

    • Saskatchewan Roughriders' quarterback Trevor Harris was named the Canadian Football League's (CFL) Player of the Month for September on Wednesday.

    • Following hours of discussion and debate at a special council meeting Tuesday, councillors voted not to reconsider a previous Central Library renewal project funding decision.

    • The Minto Fire Department has made the difficult decision to pause its specialty rescue programs.

    • The family-owned business, which has been a fixture on Arthur Street South since 1927, made the difficult decision to shut down following a smash and grab robbery back in June.

    • From bad behaviour in Waterloo, to a stabbing in Guelph. Here's what happened over Homecoming Weekend.

    • A reminder from police to lock up your bikes because bike thefts are a constant concern in our city, and the thefts are being linked to other criminal activity.

    • Saskatchewan’s police watchdog says an officer who shot a Saskatoon man while executing a warrant at a home on Lisgar Avenue did nothing wrong.

    • Election season has arrived in Saskatoon, with residents gearing up to vote in both provincial and civic elections.

    • The jury at the trial of a second-degree murder suspect in Sudbury on Wednesday heard graphic details of the crime scene discovered in a Kathleen Street apartment on Boxing Day 2020.

    • Jacob Hoggard wrapped up his time on the stand in his sexual assault trial this morning after the Crown cross-examined him on apparent gaps in his memory.

    • A 33-year-old man has been arrested after two females were found dead inside a home in Courtice, Ont. on Tuesday afternoon.

    • The Minto Fire Department has made the difficult decision to pause its specialty rescue programs.

    • Evan James is about to get a taste of the big leagues.

    • It was billed as a town hall style meeting to discuss solutions to social problems in the Old East Village — but the first of two community engagement sessions hosted by the Ark Aid Street Mission quickly became a flashpoint to air grievances about ongoing challenges in the neighbourhood.

    • An Aurora, Ont. man who has maintained his innocence despite being convicted of killing his wife will learn his fate in a Newmarket courtroom on Wednesday.

    • Thinking about buying concert tickets or other items on Facebook? Police are warning the public about the risks of buying concert tickets and other items through social media, particularly Facebook Marketplace and Messenger.

    • Tributes have started pouring in for a Midland, Ont. man who died after reportedly being struck by an unmarked provincial police vehicle over the weekend.

    • One suspect has been arrested following a fraud investigation, conducted by the Windsor Police Service (WPS).

    • Windsor police are cracking down on retail thefts in the city.

    • The Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) has seized $36,000 in drugs following a search warrant on Victoria Avenue in Ridgetown.

    • A pedestrian was struck by a taxi and rushed to hospital with life-threatening injuries in downtown Victoria early Wednesday morning.

    • An island on Vancouver Island's Sproat Lake, "Sunset Island" is up for sale.

    • British Columbia's nagging drought could be eased by an incoming weather pattern that may bring a colder and wetter than normal winter, says Sean Fleming, an adjunct UBC professor of atmospheric sciences.

    • A father in Kelowna is furious after his 13-year-old daughter was brutally beaten on Gyro Beach. He is calling for criminal charges in the devastating attack, which was caught on video by multiple bystanders.

    • The officer who shot and killed a forcible confinement suspect in Kamloops two years ago was justified in doing so, according to the Independent Investigations Office of B.C.

    • Fire crews in Vernon, B.C., responded to a large house fire early Saturday morning.

    • From offering two meals a week to three a day, the Lethbridge Soup Kitchen has grown immensely over the past 40 years.

    • The sentencing for three men convicted of helping lead and coordinate the COVID-19 protest blockade at Coutts, Alta., in 2022 has been delayed.

    • A 10-year-old boy from Lethbridge is being praised as a hero after a routine summer outing at the pool nearly turned tragic for his friend.

    • A woman who has worked for Â鶹´«Ã½ Northern Ontario for 50 years was honoured Tuesday night with a lifetime achievement award.

    • CTV Northern Ontario will be live on location in the community collecting donations to stock the shelves of local food banks this month.

    • Jacob Hoggard wrapped up his time on the stand in his sexual assault trial this morning after the Crown cross-examined him on apparent gaps in his memory.

    N.L.

    Stay Connected
    Follow Â鶹´«Ã½