OTTAWA - Refurbishing a derelict Afghan dam has been billed as one of Canada's "signature projects" in the war-ravaged nation, but defence analysts say these major initiatives carry a giant bull's eye for militants desperate to obliterate tangible signs of progress -- and morale.
The warning comes as the federal government issued a tender Monday for the repair of the Dahla dam on the Arghandab River in northern Kandahar province.
Years of war and neglect have taken their toll on the dam. Canada will spend up to $50 million to refurbish the dam to improve irrigation and open up new, fertile soil for farmers deep into the Arghandab River Valley.
Other international partners, including USAID, could also contribute to the project.
The Dahla dam's repair is one of three signature projects announced last month by the Conservative government. Canada will also build, expand or renovate 50 schools in Kandahar province and finance an ambitious project to immunize seven million children across Afghanistan against polio.
Earlier this year, a blue-ribbon panel headed by former Liberal deputy prime minister John Manley urged Ottawa to pursue at least one signature "Canadian" project, easily identifiable to the Afghans that coalition forces are trying to win over.
But these signature projects will surely end up in the insurgents' cross hairs, said Steven Staples, president of the Rideau Institute.
"Trying to do these major projects . . . (is) just going to create massive targets for the insurgents," he said.
"Insurgents already are aware of the symbolism of some of these projects, and that will be part of their calculations in terms of targeting these things."
The Taliban might single out the project as a strategic target, in much the same way they have repeatedly attacked the Kajaki dam, a semi-active hydro-electric facility in neighbouring Helmand province.
British soldiers stationed there have waged bloody campaigns over two years to secure the area around the dam, which only has one of three turbines operating. It's hoped the Kajaki dam -- completed in the 1960s with U.S. government money -- will be at full power some time later this year.
The Dahla dam -- the second-largest in the country -- holds strategic importance for coalition forces.
It is situated along the Arghandab River, which snakes through Afghanistan's parched southern landscape and is the lifeblood of farmers in the region.
The dam will irrigate a huge swath of land alongside the river, which is dotted with dozens of villages that follow its path. Bringing a stable water supply to each of these villages avoids the perception of favouring some over others.
The Arghandab River Valley is also home to many members of the Alokozai tribe, which has generally been supportive of the mission in Afghanistan. But recently there have been signs of unrest in the region following the death of a powerful pro-government tribal leader. It's expected the dam project will please the Alokozai.
The dam is also seen as a way to wean locals from the poppy fields and into the fruit groves, where there's the potential to grow pomegranates.
A new release from the Canadian International Development Agency says the project will provide Afghan farmers with 10,000 hectares of irrigated land. It is also expected to employ up to 10,000 seasonal workers.
That's key to winning the hearts and minds of Afghans, said Alain Pellerin, executive director of the Canadian Conference of Defence Associations.
"If you can get thousands of unemployed people to start working on that dam project, it means that they'll be working on the dam project and not picking up Kalashnikovs to shoot at our soldiers," he said.
CIDA was not immediately available to comment.
Canada has recognized the Dahla dam's military significance by establishing important fortified outposts in the region. At the same time, military officials have downplayed the threat of an attack on the project.
But a successful attack by insurgents on the Dahla dam could undermine the Canadian government's sunny messages on progress and stability in Afghanistan, said David Bercuson, a military and political historian at the University of Calgary.
"Any time they pull off a successful attack, you have the possibility of undermining morale," he said.
"The enemy pulls off a significant military accomplishment, (it) definitely has an impact on morale. Very difficult for it not to have impact on morale."
Morale took a hit last month after insurgents mounted a brazen jailbreak at Kandahar's Sarposa prison that spilled hundreds of common criminals and Taliban militants into the streets. An emboldened insurgency littered area roads with bombs and laid claim to villages along the Arghandab River.
Although Sarposa prison is a civilian Afghan institution, the jailbreak was widely seen as a sign of the increasingly bleak military situation in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon has cited a 40 per cent increase in insurgent attacks in eastern areas of the country where U.S. forces operate, noting that it loses more soldiers in Afghanistan than in Iraq. Britain's defence secretary, meanwhile, calls Afghanistan a generational struggle that will require a foreign troop presence for many years.
