HONG KONG -- At the onset of his unprecedented third term, Xi Jinping stacked China鈥檚 top ranks with a slate of loyalists who he presumably hoped would smooth the paths to achieve his grand vision for China.
Less than a year on, however, a storm of turbulence is roiling Xi鈥檚 hand-picked ruling elite, raising questions about his judgment and dampening international confidence in his governance 鈥� at a time when China is facing major economic troubles at home and increased competition with the United States on the world stage.
In just a matter of months, two senior members of China鈥檚 cabinet who served as the country鈥檚 key interlocutors with the world have gone missing. Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for three weeks, sparking speculation he is under investigation. Weeks earlier, Foreign Minister Qin Gang was dramatically ousted after vanishing from public view for a month.
Their sudden absence comes as Xi is seeking to eliminate any perceived threats and vulnerabilities in a drive to bolster national security, amid rising tensions with the West.
Both Li and Qin serve among China鈥檚 five state councillors, a senior position in the cabinet that outranks a regular minister. Li also sits on the Central Military Commission, a powerful body headed by Xi that commands the armed forces.
Meanwhile, the surprise removal of two top generals has rocked the People鈥檚 Liberation Army Rocket Force, an elite unit set up by Xi to modernize China鈥檚 conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, sparking concerns of a broader purge in the military.
The Chinese government, which has become even more opaque under Xi, offered little in the way of a public explanation for the series of personnel shake-ups, nor did it show any interest in clearing up the inevitable speculation that has run rampant since.
On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Qin was found by an international Communist Party investigation to have been engaged in an extramarital affair while serving as China鈥檚 envoy to Washington, citing people familiar with the matter. China鈥檚 Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the report.
The lack of transparency over the fate of two high-profile ministers has dealt a blow to the international image of Beijing, which has touted its political model as more stable and efficient than Western democracies.
Experts say the growing uncertainty among China鈥檚 ruling elite has exposed the vulnerabilities of its one-party system 鈥� which have only been amplified by Xi鈥檚 concentration of personal power during what is now his third term.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 going on in China really represents and has reflected an absolutely tremendous political risk emanating from Beijing,鈥� said Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore.
鈥淭he political risk is both among Xi Jinping and his relationship with his handpicked subordinates, but also the lack of established rules and norms that govern behaviours in the system.鈥�
As defence minister, a largely ceremonial role in the Chinese system, Li does not command combat forces. But he is an important face of China鈥檚 military diplomacy to the outside world, said James Char, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
鈥淚f Li Shangfu is really in trouble, Beijing will be perceived in a very negative way to have two state councillors removed so soon in Xi Jinping鈥檚 third term,鈥� he said.
Since being promoted to the post in March, Li has travelled twice to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart, visited Belarus鈥� president in Minsk, and shook hands with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin at a security conference in Singapore.
In recent weeks, however, Li has reportedly missed a series of diplomatic engagements, including an annual meeting on border defence with Vietnamese officials and a meeting with Singapore鈥檚 Navy Chief in Beijing.
But experts noted there is one silver-lining in Li鈥檚 mysterious absence when it comes to efforts to stabilize US-China relations.
Li was sanctioned by the US in 2018 over China鈥檚 purchase of Russian weapons, and Beijing has repeatedly suggested that the US won鈥檛 get a meeting with Li unless the sanctions were revoked.
If Li was removed as defence minister, it could potentially open a window for the resumption of high-level military talks between the two superpowers.
鈥榅I COULD NOT ESCAPE THE BLAME鈥�
The potential downfall of Xi鈥檚 own loyalists would reflect badly on the top leader, who has concentrated power and decision-making into his own hands to a level unseen in China in recent decades, analysts say.
鈥淭wo state councillors single-handedly promoted by Xi had run into troubles within six months, no matter how hard the authorities try to defend it, Xi could not escape the blame,鈥� said Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper who now lives in the US.
鈥淭here will be questions within the party over what kind of people he has placed in important positions.鈥�
Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, even compared Xi鈥檚 cabinet line-up to Agatha Christie鈥檚 novel 鈥淎nd Then There Were None.鈥�
鈥淲ho鈥檚 going to win this unemployment race? China鈥檚 youth or Xi鈥檚 cabinet?鈥� the ambassador wrote on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
China is already battling a series of economic woes 鈥� from record youth unemployment and mounting local government debt to a spiralling property crisis. The growing uncertainty in Xi鈥檚 ruling circle risks fuelling a crisis of confidence in the world鈥檚 second largest economy, analysts noted.
鈥淴i鈥檚 latest high-level purge underscores his belief that ideological cohesion, not economic performance or perceived military prowess, are the cornerstones of a nation鈥檚 strength, a lesson he drew from the Soviet Union鈥檚 collapse,鈥� said Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies in Washington DC.
鈥淟i鈥檚 removal may not seriously impinge on China鈥檚 state relations, but it will almost certainly reinforce the international business community鈥檚 growing concerns regarding party overreach and dwindling transparency in China.鈥�
FIGHTING CORRUPTION
Military leader Li, 65, cut his teeth at one of China鈥檚 main satellite-launch sites in the southwestern province of Sichuan, rising through the ranks to become its director.
After three decades at the launch centre, he was promoted to work in the PLA鈥檚 headquarters on armaments in 2013, soon after Xi rose to power.
Li is believed to be a protégé of General Zhang Youxia, Xi鈥檚 childhood friend and closest ally in the military. In a sign of his prominence, Zhang was promoted to first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) during the leadership reshuffle last October despite having well passed the unofficial retirement age.
From 2017 to 2022, Li was in charge of China鈥檚 weapon procurement as the head of the CMC鈥檚 Equipment Development Department, a position Zhang previously held.
In July, days before the two top generals at Rocket Force were abruptly removed, the Equipment Development Department announced a fresh crackdown on corrupt procurement practices, calling for tips on questionable activities dating back to 2017 鈥� coinciding with the time Li took the helm of the department.
Since coming to power, Xi has wielded an unrelenting anti-corruption campaign, which ensnared hundreds of senior officials and generals and millions more lower-level cadres.
鈥淚f you look back over 10 years, Xi Jinping is still battling corruption. He鈥檚 still battling disloyalty. He鈥檚 still expressing his concerns about the loyalty of the army towards the party,鈥� said Thompson, the researcher at the National University of Singapore.
鈥淭his really reveals some fundamental problems in the nature of governance in Beijing. The lack of checks and balances, the over-reliance on top down party control does nothing to remove the incentives that underpin the behaviours that they鈥檙e constantly trying to root out.鈥�
鈥楽UCH PURGES WILL KEEP HAPPENING鈥�
Even as he has already amassed more power than any other Chinese leader in recent decades, Xi is still doubling down on a campaign to consolidate his authority in the party and the military.
Last week, as speculation mounted over the whereabouts of the defence minister, Xi called for unity and stability within the military during an inspection in China鈥檚 northeast.
鈥淭he lack of political trust between individuals in the system is an underlying driver of this campaign,鈥� Thompson said.
Xi is not the only Chinese leader who has turned against his own circle after amassing unrivalled personal power. Chairman Mao Zedong, the most powerful Chinese leader before Xi, purged many of his trusted allies in the Cultural Revolution.
Char, the expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, warned the political shake-ups does not suggest Xi is losing his grip on power.
鈥淭he very fact that he can remove anyone he wants鈥ays a lot about the extent of control Xi has achieved,鈥� Char said.
But he noted the disappearance of Li and Qin is a symptom of the one-party centralized rule in China.
鈥淯ntil Xi Jinping has the gumption to reform the entire political system鈥鈥檓 very sure this kind of purges will just keep happening.鈥�
