Ed Stelmach will probably remain premier of Alberta in his first electoral test on Monday, but when it's over, no one will likely be calling him King Ed.
Stelmach took over in late 2006 from Ralph Klein, who did wear the political crown in Alberta for 14 years as Progressive Conservative leader and premier.
But even Klein -- who famously proclaimed, "Welcome to Ralph's World," after a landslide victory in 2001 -- saw his popular support erode for the first time in the 2004 provincial election.
The Tories still held 60 of 83 seats going into this campaign.
However, "people are unhappy," Calgary-based political commentator Joan Crockett told CTV.ca.
Media-sponsored polls there have suggested that with the campaign winding down, more than 25 per cent of Alberta voters are undecided about which party to support, she said, adding a substantial number would like to see a change in government.
The Tories are estimated to have about 40 per cent support provincially (the party captured 46 per cent of the vote in 2004), the Liberals less than 20 per cent and the NDP tied with the Green party with around five per cent.
A Strategic Counsel poll for CTV and The Globe and Mail found 50 per cent of Albertans were likely to support the Tories, down eight points from January. Here's the other parties:
- Liberals - 25 per cent
- Wildrose Alliance - 10 per cent
- NDP - 8 per cent
- Greens - 8 per cent
The poll was conducted Feb. 27 and 28 and surveyed 750 people. The margin of error is 3.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
"It's going to be a Conservative majority government, but what is worth noting is that there's a decline in the number of people who think the province is on the right track or an increased number of people who think it's time for a change," The Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo told CTV.ca. "Beneath the prosperity, there's a growing anxiety, but it hasn't found a vehicle."
Albertan and former Reform Party leader Preston Manning told CTV's Question Period on Sunday that he's worried about low voter turnout. "People do want change, but they don't know where to get it from," he said.
Ed's conundrum
Stelmach is in a strange situation: He's the latest steward of a political dynasty that began with Peter Lougheed's stunning victory over a 36-year-old Social Credit government in 1971.
The province's energy-driven economy is the strongest in Canada and has lured hundreds of thousands of newcomers. Yet prosperity and hyper-growth have brought their own problems, like labour shortages for employers, soaring rents and housing prices for workers and infrastructure everywhere creaking under the strain.
Some companies have recently suggested the pace of oilsands development should be slowed down. Stelmach has rejected that, although he is trying to sound more pro-environment.
All this had the two main opposition parties, the Liberals (16 seats) and NDP (4 seats, all in Edmonton), attacking the Tories as a tired party unable to manage the pressures buffeting the province.
Those two parties are to the left of the Tories, but on the right is the Wildrose Alliance (1 seat; there was one independent MLA and one vacancy at dissolution), whose members think the Tories have drifted away from true conservatism. And in central Alberta, an activist who led a fight against a power line hopes to become the first elected Green Party politician in Canada.
Stelmach tried to sell his party as the one best positioned to deliver change -- despite having been in power for 37 years so far.
His campaigning style has been described as wooden. But even if Stelmach is today's Harry Strom (the last Social Credit premier), none of the opposition leaders appears likely to play the Peter Lougheed role on Monday.
Liberal Leader Kevin Taft, NDP Leader Brian Mason and Wildrose Alliance Leader Paul Hinman all trail Stelmach in leadership, according to polling conducted for CTV Edmonton and CTV Calgary by Teleresearch Inc.
The Calgary problem
Where Stelmach might have a problem is in Calgary.
He won the party leadership as a compromise candidate, mainly through his strength in Edmonton and rural areas. In his first cabinet, Stelmach surrounded himself with loyalists - few of whom were from Calgary.
In a byelection for Klein's old seat, the voters of Calgary-Elbow sent Stelmach a message -- they elected a Liberal.
Last fall, Stelmach announced changes to the province's energy royalties regime, seen by some analysts as under-charging for Alberta's non-renewable resources of oil and natural gas. He announced the province would increase its royalty take by $1.4 billion by 2010 - about 25 per cent less than a panel recommended.
Crockatt said the natural gas industry is the real driver of Alberta's economy, and that sector is furious. Some energy companies are planning on spending their exploration budgets in other jurisdictions, "just to make a point," she said.
Crockatt listed some other controversies:
- Stelmach wouldn't approve Craig Chandler, a controversial social conservative, as a party candidate. Chandler is now running as an Independent; and
- He got into spat with former TV journalist Arthur Kent, considered one of the party's star candidates in Calgary.
Stelmach spent all day Saturday in Calgary, which he called Alberta's "Conservative heartland."
Leadership at stake?
Crockatt noted that to win power in Alberta, you need two of the three pillars: Calgary, Edmonton and the rural vote.
Mount Royal College political scientist Keith Brownsey told CTV.ca that Edmonton and Calgary account for 42 of the 83 seats, Red Deer and Lethbridge a couple seats each -- with the rural areas holding virtually everything else.
The rural areas are over-represented relative to their population, he said - and Stelmach is likely to win at least 35 seats there.
"That means he needs 10 more and he's got a majority," he said.
Teleresearch's mid-February poll for CTV Edmonton put the Tories well ahead there. The Strategic Counsel poll buttresses that finding. While Crockatt said the Liberals could win 11 seats in Calgary, up from four, that means the Tories could still win up to 12.
The math is there for a Tory victory. But Ralph Klein was gone within two years of winning 62 seats. Brownsey suspects if Stelmach only delivers a bare majority, his continued hold on the leadership is by no means assured.
"What's going on with the Conservative party now is you have a full-blown leadership race going on," he said. "People are manoeuvring for a post-Stelmach leadership run. They expect him to do very poorly."
Brownsey said there are those who want to take the party further right, those who are more urban and socially liberal -- "and then there's Ed Stelmach."
The potential exists for the Progressive Conservative party to fracture in the future over these factional pressures, he predicted.
"But who knows what's going to happen in this election? (Stelmach) could win 55 or 60 seats and all is well with him."
