OTTAWA - Future newcomers will be younger, less educated and more fluent in English or French, if Ottawa's latest proposals for immigration become a reality.
It's a formula designed to give immigrants a better chance at success. But the changes may also skew the sources of Canadian immigration, says one expert.
"It looks like a big part of this is just a shift in source countries," said Mikal Skuterud, a professor at the University of Waterloo who closely tracks immigrants and their outcomes.
Immigration Minister Jason Kenney on Thursday launched a month of public consultations on the proposed changes, in the hopes of formalizing them later this year.
He wants to rejig the point system that Canada uses to determine which foreign skilled workers are allowed to immigrate.
"We must select those immigrants who are most likely to succeed in the Canadian economy," Kenney told MPs at a committee hearing.
Ottawa wants to bring in between 74,000 and 80,400 such people this year alone -- not including their families. Skilled workers need to score at least 67 points out of a possible 100 in order to qualify, based on education, language, work experience, age and arranged employment in Canada.
Research into immigration over the last few years shows that the biggest factor in immigrants' financial success is the ability to speak an official language. So Kenney wants more points given for language proficiency.
"I think there is no question that language is the key success factor, and recognizing that in the point system is a good thing," responded Naomi Alboim, a professor at Queen's University in Kingston.
The government research also shows that younger newcomers have a much better chance at finding good jobs than older immigrants. So Kenney suggests would-be newcomers over the age of 49 get no points for their age, but that people under the age of 35 get 12 points.
Plus, the minister also proposes changing the requirements needed to claim education points. That way, tradespeople and technicians would stand a better chance of qualifying and coming to Canada to alleviate worker shortages in certain trades.
He also wants to crack down on fraudulent job offers.
Pressure has been building on Ottawa to tweak the point system, mainly because the most recent generation of immigrants to Canada has generally had a much harder time making ends meet than previous generations.
But Canada has already put more emphasis on language over the last few years and so it is already possible to see the trends, said Skuterud.
Immigration from China and Pakistan has dropped considerably while the number of newcomers from the United States, the United Kingdom and France has soared, he said.
"We're not discriminating on source country any more, but de facto, we are."
China is still the top source of immigrants, but Philippines and India -- where English is more prevalent -- are close behind. The United States, the United Kingdom and France are a distant fourth, fifth and sixth.
Skuterud is also concerned about the lowering of requirements for education, to emphasize skilled trades.
Well-educated immigrants are generally able to make a decent living and raise children who go on to do just as well as children of Canadians, he said.
While today's labour market may need tradespeople in some areas, that's a short-term issue that may not be relevant in a generation.
Still, an analysis by the Maytree Foundation in Toronto suggests tradespeople find it next to impossible to immigrate under the current system -- a situation the foundation believes should be fixed.
But all of Kenney's changes will amount to little if he continues to scale back the federal skilled workers program in favour of provincial programs and temporary workers, Alboim added.
"There's a real policy disconnect," she said. "You have to look at it in the context of the whole immigration program."
Kenney continued to come under fire on Thursday for cutting funding to immigrant settlement services in Toronto and for playing with the mix of immigrants targeted to come to Canada this year.
Opposition MPs protested cuts to immigrant settlement services in Toronto, in favour of other provinces and regions.
And they criticized Kenney for cutting targets on extended family members who will be allowed to immigrate.
Kenney countered that he has expanded the number of immediate family that will be allowed in.
