Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is making preparations to shuffle his cabinet, with the rejig of his front bench set to happen as early as Wednesday, senior government sources confirm to Â鶹´«Ã½.
Trudeau is holding private meetings with ministers in Ottawa in advance of a forthcoming trip to Rideau Hall, after rumours have swirled around the federal political scene for weeks that a summer shuffle was in the cards.
This impending and potentially sizeable shuffle is being framed as an attempt by the minority Liberals to reset their messaging on a few hot files after fall and spring sittings that saw intense political scrutiny over the government's handling of issues such as housing affordability, public safety, and policies involving online platforms.
Over the weekend, a handful of ministerial announcements across the country scheduled for Monday were cancelled, presumably so the members of cabinet could travel back to the nation's capital to meet with the prime minister ahead of the shuffle. Other ministers however, have maintained their Monday itineraries outside of Ottawa.
Among the ministers who called off announcements were Transport Minister Omar Alghabra, Housing and Diversity and Inclusion Minister Ahmed Hussen, and Minister of Official Languages and Minister Responsible for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency Ginette Petitpas Taylor.
One of the ministers whose event pressed ahead on Monday was Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault who, in announcing new conditions for allowing future fossil fuel subsidies, was asked how he feels about the looming shuffle.
"I serve at the pleasure of the prime minister of Canada. I'm here today making this announcement... I'm leaving for the G20. Unless my boss tells me that I’m no longer leaving for the G20, I'll be heading there tonight to represent Canada as the environment and climate change minister for the country," he said in response.
It is expected that ministers have communicated to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) their intentions to run again should an election be called. It's likely that those who have signalled plans to not to re-offer will be shuffled out, opening up spots that could allow Trudeau to elevate high-performing members of his backbenches to cabinet before the next campaign, currently scheduled for 2025.
On Monday, longtime Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett announced that she will not be running for re-election, opening up a downtown Toronto riding for the next campaign. Bennett told reporters that she'd already met with Trudeau to tell him.
Â鶹´«Ã½ political commentator and Paul Martin's former communications director Scott Reid said this government is about midway through its current mandate, so moving to reset the deck now makes sense, and is likely to spark a knock-on effect to certain senior staffing positions.
He said barring future political shakeups, it could be the last substantial shuffle before the next vote so that ministers have some runway to make progress the Liberals need on their outstanding commitments to the Canadian public.
"You would also expect that the prime minister probably moves some pieces around the board, tries to position himself stronger for electoral purposes," Reid said on Â鶹´«Ã½ Channel. "Get some stronger communicators in front of the microphones and at more high-profile cabinet posts, that sort of thing is to be expected."
The last time Trudeau made changes to his cabinet was in 2022, simply swapping the portfolios of Filomena Tassi and Helena Jaczek.
That tweak was the first time the prime minister shuffled his ministerial roster since he considerably shook up who was responsible for some key portfolios following the 2021 election that saw the Liberals hold on to power with a second minority government.
One minister many consider poised for reassignment after coming under fire for his handling of gun control legislation and the transfer of notorious killer Paul Bernardo, is Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino.
When asked last week whether Trudeau still had confidence in him amid Conservative calls for his resignation, the prime minister told reporters that anyone in his cabinet "by definition has my confidence."
"I have an amazing team in Ottawa, and an amazing group of MPs right across the country who are committed to serving their country every single day," Trudeau said.
One of the names of Liberal MPs being raised in this highly-speculative pre-shuffle period as a cabinet contender is newly-elected Quebec MP Anna Gainey. The former party president held the Liberal stronghold handily amid concerns in the riding over the federal government's handling of language law changes and Anglophone minority rights.
Suggestions have been made that changes could also be coming to see the Liberals strengthen their roster of economic messengers, in the face of a concerted effort from opposition party leaders Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh to challenge the Liberals on affordability and inflation.
"The Liberals have had their lunch eaten on that front by Poilievre for a while. That's not a partisan comment, the polling shows that," said Summa Strategies chairman and former Conservative adviser Tim Powers on the Vassy Kapelos Show.
"It does seem though, as reports start to trickle out—as they invariably do around these things—that this is going to be a fairly significant makeover," Powers said.
While cautioning that much of what's transpiring right now is "all speculation until it actually happens" fellow Summa Strategies associate and former Liberal policy director Elliot Hughes agreed the shuffle is likely "going to be a big one."
"Now is the time… We will see how far the prime minister is willing to go. There always is a risk when you bring in really fresh faces, new faces. All of the problems that these cabinet ministers are facing now don't simply go away when you replace them with new ministers," Hughes said. "But at least you have a new opportunity through a new slate, a fresh slate to allow these perhaps better communicators to connect with Canadians a little bit more effectively."
University of Windsor political science professor Lydia Miljan said "lots" of ministers could use a "time-out" in exchange for "some people around the table who can really sell the government because, you know, their poll numbers aren't great."
"They continue to be losing at the expense of other parties, and it just feels, you know, given that they've been in power so long, they're just feeling a little bit stale," Miljan said on Â鶹´«Ã½ Channel.
According to the latest Nanos tracking, the Liberals are six points behind the Conservatives. It's a sign Trudeau's team needs a reset, according to Nik Nanos, chair of Nanos Research and Â鶹´«Ã½' official pollster.
"Right now it's basically a statistical dead heat between Pierre Poilievre and Justin Trudeau as to who Canadians would prefer as prime minister… So there's not a lot of political coattails right now, for Justin Trudeau," Nanos said.
"Probably what he's hoping for, is to refresh the team and the faces around himself to try to manage away some of these risks and try to renew, because the election is coming."
There are currently 38 members in the gender-balanced cabinet, not counting the prime minister.
The timing of this expected shuffle comes ahead of an August cabinet retreat in P.E.I. and the return of Parliament in late September.
