Pierre Poilievre knows how to laugh. I heard it myself.
On Monday Poilievre was asked to react to Jean Charestâs âattack,â calling him a career politician with no real life experience. Poilievre let out a belly laugh and simply remarked that Charest was elected to Parliament inâŚ1984!
Charest may have lots of skills today but he didnât have two lines on his CV when he was first elected. For him to be calling Poilievre a career politician was indeed laughable.
The race to become the sixth Conservative leader in seven years is shaping up to be a lot more fun than the previous races that produced Scheer and OâToole as cannon fodder for Trudeauâs Liberals.
To begin with, Poilievre is young, energetic and driven. That will serve him well over the next six months as he traverses the country constantly. I went through a lengthy campaign to succeed Jack Layton and know first hand just how gruelling the exercise is. Canada is indeed huge and in a leadership race, you have to get into every nook and cranny to meet, greet and sell memberships.
Poilievre was in Quebec last weekend and did well. When you get 200 people in a hall in Trois-Rivières, youâve generated some interest in your campaign.
Poilievre doesnât shy away from controversy and when asked about meeting anti-vaxxers, reverts to a âgood people on both sidesâ argument.
Poilievre will be able to count on a lot of second choice votes from Leslyn Lewis supporters. She is staunchly anti-abortion and will reel in large numbers of votes from social conservatives and some church groups. If she fails to progress through the successive ballot counts, most of her votes would stay on the right side of the ledger and favour Poilievre, who gets a political two for one. Heâll get her votes but wonât have to get ensnared in the trap that caught Scheer. Unlike Scheer, Poilievre will be able to avoid committing too heavily and wonât have to pander to the anti-choice voters.
As in the two previous leadership races, it will be a crowded field. The ranked ballot can produce surprises: most Conservatives will have chosen to forget that Maxime Bernier came within a hairâs breadth of leading the party when Andrew Scheer won.
What will be the most interesting to watch is who aligns with whom.
When MP Scott Aitchison launched his campaign he said he was running because he was fed up with partisan bickering and political games and said what was missing was leadership. One can be forgiven for assuming that the master stuntman, Pierre Poilievre, was in Aitchisonâs crosshairs.
This race really is a battle for the heart and soul of a Janus-faced Party and the past leaders of its two philosophical sides could help decide its future. If and when Brian Mulroney and Stephen Harper declare, that battle will have been joined in earnest.
Charest would love to get Mulroneyâs support and be seen as his potential successor in forming a majority Conservative government. Their relationship has not always been an easy one and it remains to be seen whether the old warhorse can be prevailed upon by their many mutual, and influential, friends to give his paternal blessing.
Harper is another matter. His disdain not only for Charest but for all that he represents is a matter of record. Harper scuppered the Progressive Conservatives because they were an anathema. The mushy middle is not for him. Harper is unlikely to remain silent, especially if it appears that Charest has a chance of beating Poilievre.
Almost as influential will be former Progressive Conservative leader Peter MacKay. He represents a younger generation and has had to sit this one out, having thus far been unable to repay his debt from his last run. He was the other side of the deal with Harper that gave us the newly minted Conservatives.
MacKay remains a force within the Party and his pronouncements are going to be studied for any hint of support for one candidate or another.
Harper has remained very loyal to MacKay, going so far as to help him fundraise to repay that campaign debt. If they were to wind up at loggerheads, it would be seen a a reversion to the status quo ante of Reform/Alliance versus PCâs and all bets would be off as to the future of the party.
Another major leadership candidate, Patrick Brown scored a major coup when he received the backing of highly respected MP Michelle Rempel Garner. Deeply experienced, brilliant in debate and highly personable, she will bring a lot to his campaign. She can be expected to help Brown with his communications lines and in debate prep.
Brown considers Charest one of his political mentors and he will not be the type to join in the predictable attacks against Charestâs spotty record on integrity issues. He will be playing to win, however and although their second choice votes will be largely interchangeable, Brown could well wind up selling more new memberships than Charest. This could ultimately mean that Charestâs votes would go over to Brown.
Iâve known Charest for decades and have a better understanding than most about his weaknesses and strengths. He doesnât have Poilievreâs youth or energy but he is deeply experienced.
Tuesdayâs agreement between Trudeau and Singh would put the next federal election in October 2025.
It creates a double advantage for Poilievre. He gets to slag the Liberals for turning "hard left" and, if he wins, he gets three years to hone his pitch in the House and prepare.
Iâm sure Charest quickly understood what the Liberal-NDP agreement meant for him. Iâm willing to bet the Liberal braintrust took it into account when they pushed for this deal.
Charest doesnât even have a seat in the House. Heâd be stuck spending three and a half years roaming the hallways like Banquoâs ghost. Not a great career plan for someone banking on a quick shot at becoming PM. Heâs an incredible campaigner and no one should count him out, but this isnât what heâd bargained for.
With Poilievreâs early lead, after bursting first out of the starting blocks, Charest has a lot of catching up to do. Heâd have to sell 1,000 memberships a day if he hopes to win. A tall order.
Charest has won elections by doggedly catching up with heavily favoured adversaries and doesnât mind being likened to the "tortoise" in the well-known fable. âLièvreâ it should be remembered, is the French word for "hare," after allâŚ
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.