Next week weâll learn what advice former governor general David Johnston has given to Justin Trudeau to deal with the tentacular issues of Chinese government interference in Canada.
Make no mistake: Johnston has absolutely no decision-making powers, despite the high-sounding title of "Special Rapporteur" with which Trudeau saddled him.
Trudeau often says that heâs waiting for Johnstonâs decision. Thatâs just more poppycock in a dossier filled with coverups, stonewalling and outright deception.
Under Canadian law, the only entity that can decide to hold a commission of inquiry is the federal cabinet chaired by⊠Trudeau.
Itâs Trudeauâs decision. Period.
We've had weeks on end of Trudeau sycophants and grandees parading before parliamentary committee. A panel of very senior civil servants gave what Trudeau called an objective analysis of the possible effects of Chinese government interference in the 2019 and 2021 elections.
They couldâve entitled their report: "Nothing to See Here, Move Along."
One key "talking point" has been that the results of the elections werenât affected.
THE EFFECT WILL NEVER BE KNOWN
That may be true. If the Conservatives had won, in 2021, the 10 seats they may have lost because of Chinese government interference, they still wouldnât have won the election. To that extent the result wouldnât have changed. But Trudeau would've had a weaker minority and the effect on parliamentary and democratic life will never be known. Thatâs the whole point.
There was also the obvious problem that senior civil servants are by definition subservient to the prime minister. But, worry not, their homework was going to be reviewed by an equally "independent" and very experienced former senior civil servant, Morris Rosenberg.
Problem was, of course, that despite his excellent resumé, Rosenberg was the president and CEO of the when it received money from sources associated with the Chinese Communist Party. That foundation has been at the centre of controversy since that information became public.
Similarly, Johnston, a truly exceptional Canadian, had a key role at the Trudeau Foundation just prior to being named Special Rapporteur. He should have stepped aside the minute it became clear that heâd have to be giving advice on whether or not to investigate the foundation where heâd just recently been active.
Heâs chosen not to and that is predictably going to lead to further questions when he does provide his advice next week.
The brilliant Katie Telford, Justin Trudeauâs chief of staff, showed up to testify in committee but wouldnât answer any questions .
Telford wanted us all to know that she loved members of Parliament and has helped so many of them over the years but she couldnât say anything at all, though she wouldâve loved to!
My personal favourite, Alexandre âSashaâ Trudeau â a member of the Trudeau Foundation and younger brother of the prime minister -- also made an appearance and promptly threw the former president and CEO of the Trudeau Foundation, Pascale Fournier, under the bus. Despite having worked with her for years, her thinking was apparently now all foggy.
Fournier had asked that those board members whoâd been involved during the Chinese transactions, recuse themselves from deliberations concerning the matter. When they refused she and several other board members resigned. In Sashaâs telling, she had it all wrong. After all, the Foundation Board chair, Edward Johnson, believed it wasnât necessary and heâd been at Power Corporation for years. Between an experienced older guy and, well, a womanâŠwhich one knows more, eh?
Then the stuff really hit the fan with the revelations that MP Michael Chongâs family had been threatened for his role in condemning the Chinese governmentâs human rights abuses. That was the straw that broke the camelâs back.
Trudeau and his hapless public safety minister, Marco Mendicino, couldnât keep their story straight for a nanosecond. They stonewalled for two days in the House. Then they tried their old trick of blaming the messenger. It was the fault of CSIS: they had failed to send the information on Chong up the chain of command.
Chong quickly revealed that Trudeauâs own top security adviser said the PMâs crew were indeed briefed. Telford had affirmed Trudeau reads everything. Funny he wouldnât read the report about a foreign government threatening a sitting MP.
Weâre now learning that other MPs may have been similarly targeted. What did Trudeau know and when did he know it? Thatâs the key âWatergateâ question heâll be getting if and when the Commission of Inquiry finally gets going.
When Trudeau exchanged words with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the G20 summit in Bali last fall, his staff proudly put out that Trudeau had been giving him a piece of his mind over interference in Canadian elections.
When our prime minister got back to the House, inquiring minds wanted to know more. It was then and there that it became clear that Trudeau knew a lot but had reason to avoid letting anything else out. It was too late. Heâd said too much andâŠnot enough.
Trudeau is playing the clock right now. His only goal is to remove debris from the runway so he can launch his next campaign. The issue of Chinese government interference in Canadian elections and politics is, of course, the biggest piece that has to be dealt with. If he canât remove it, heâs got to pull a David Copperfield, and convince enough people itâs disappeared. The best way to do that is to hand it off to a commission knowing itâll be many months before it can get into gear and start hearing witnesses. Johnston even has an obscure second part to his mandate that could see him rag the puck until Halloween!
TRUDEAU IS PLAYING HIS POLITICAL CAREER
Trudeau, true to form, will likely try to name Canadians who are otherwise credible, but not truly independent, to be the commissioners for the inquiry.
Trudeau is playing his political career here. Canadians have a healthy skepticism about the governmentâs story and want to know why it keeps changing. The lead author of many key articles on Chinese government interference, , has opined that Trudeau wants to keep as much as he can under wraps because the Liberals knew about this malfeasance, but did nothing because they were the prime beneficiaries. If that gets confirmed it will put a hole in the Liberal ship below the waterline.
Trudeauâs immediate playbook will in all likelihood include prorogation of the current sitting just prior to the summer recess. That way, Trudeau wonât have to deal with those pesky parliamentary committees the opposition parties could keep going all summer. With prorogation, those committees lapse along with any unadopted legislation and nothing can happen in the House until a new throne speech.
There will be pushback, because the Liberals had hollered and wailed when Stephen Harper pulled the prorogation plug. Trudeau knows he will also gain irresistible advantages and wonât hesitate. He and his ministers would still have their roles. They could travel about the country all summer on the public dime, making all the announcements they want.
Trudeau will have a crucial yet simple decision to make: does he call the election before the required throne speech, the better to ensure Pierre Poilievre doesnât get back his megaphone in the House, or does he continue to play for time and hope for improvement in the polls? The more time Poilievre gets, the better he appears to be doing in Liberal strongholds such as the Greater Toronto Area. Going early has its risks but so does giving more time to an energized Poilievre.
The China file has more twists and turns to it than any political soap opera weâve seen in Canada since the sponsorship scandal. It was the Gomery Commission of inquiry that sank the Liberal ship for years after that debacle. Trudeau knows his partyâs history inside out. He also knows that his decisions on an inquiry could lead to another long period of darkness for the Liberals if he doesnât get it right.
Trudeau loves going âall in,â and that moxie often pays off. But, for the first time, he and his handlers appear unable to bluff their way out. Poilievre could wind up the big winner.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017