Commemorating the horrific terrorist attacks by Hamas on October 7th should have been an emotional moment for agreement on all sides in the House of Commons. Instead, Canadians got a front-row seat to the fear now raging in Conservative ranks as they face the possibility that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be replaced prior to the next election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre鈥檚 blistering personal attack against will continue to play out in the House even though Speaker Greg Fergus has now asked him to apologize.
The real political fallout will be outside the House as the Liberals begin to jostle to replace Trudeau. On that front, as fierce, personal and unparliamentary as Poilievre鈥檚 attack on Joly has been, he was trying to strike a chord that would resonate with voters who鈥檝e watched the Liberals鈥� unguided approach to the complex issues of the Middle East.
Exactly like the Republicans who had constructed their entire campaign plan around Joe Biden鈥檚 feeble presence, the Conservatives have been endlessly whacking a Trudeau Piñata for over a year, and it鈥檚 worked. The Liberals (under Trudeau) are in freefall but several potential replacements are in the wings, including Joly.
Trudeau鈥檚 departure would completely change the game. The Liberal choice of successor could reshuffle the deck for the next election, which the Conservatives have been expecting to win in a romp.
The Conservatives are doing preventive maintenance with their withering assaults against prospective opponents, attacks that include, of course, those on Mark Carney. He is logically seen by Liberal insiders as having the inside track to be their new leader. Poilievre, strutting his Trump side, even invented a nickname for Carney: 鈥淐arbon tax Carney鈥�!
Conservatives have invented 鈥渃onflicts of interest鈥� and flung them at Carney, who should see those attacks as a form of acknowledgment that he鈥檚 the frontrunner in the as-yet-undeclared race to replace Trudeau.
At least Carney seems to be the type to give as good as he gets. His upcoming book, entitled 鈥淭he Hinge: Time to Build an Even Better Canada鈥� would be a key piece of his leadership campaign and eventual election platform. It is also a knowing wink at his 鈥渦nhinged鈥� Conservative opponent, once again on display in the House yesterday.
It鈥檚 not as if Joly鈥榮 utterly incomprehensible positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict can鈥檛 be debated.
From early mixed messaging on a ceasefire to the indecipherable Canadian position in response to South Africa鈥檚 genocide accusations before the International Court of Justice, there鈥檚 been a lot to discuss and debate about the Liberals鈥� policies.
When I spoke with Joly about the Liberal reaction to the South African position she said something that floored me: 鈥淭homas, have you seen the demographics of my riding鈥�? I know that 鈥渁ll politics is local,鈥� but I was astonished to hear such a candid admission that very local politics were playing such a role in shaping Canada鈥檚 foreign policy on this highly complex and sensitive issue.
When Poilievre goes white hot and sends a salvo against Joly for her refusal to condemn, specifically, antisemitic chants, he knows there鈥檚 an audience for those attacks. People who鈥檝e followed the issue closely have seen just how inconsistent Canada has been. But, really, Hamas sympathizers in the Liberal party? Come on!
When he goes off the rails and starts ranting about Joly鈥檚 leadership aspirations and the Liberals mollycoddling Hamas sympathizers, he loses the plot.
And that could well be the Achilles heel for the Conservatives. They鈥檝e become disconnected from the concerns of everyday Canadians that brought them to first place in the polls.
I鈥檝e been watching the Conservatives ratchet up the rhetoric for months and it鈥檚 reached a point where lots of average Canadians are saying whoa!
Poilievre should remember that progressive voters, now split among the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens, still outnumber them. In Quebec, the Conservatives got a humbling 11% of the vote in the recent in a diverse Montreal riding and finished fourth.
They鈥檝e decided to essentially shut down Parliament on the issue of access to certain documents from a defunct environmental tech fund, ostensibly to give them to the RCMP. Other than the obvious problem of legislative interference in police work, the RCMP has said it鈥檚 already investigating and doesn鈥檛 need the documents in question.
That seems to matter little to Poilievre and his excited House leader Andrew Scheer. They鈥檝e been drinking their own bath water and seem convinced that the government is about to fall.
They should鈥檝e listened to NDP House leader Peter Julian who called the Conservatives 鈥渁gents of chaos鈥�. The Conservatives鈥� consistently bad behaviour is becoming one of the reasons not to support them in the House. It could soon become just as off-putting for many Canadian voters.
I know this game first hand. As Deputy House leader in the National Assembly in Quebec City and, later, as House leader and then Leader of the NDP, I understand that going after your opponents is a key part of the game. But when that game becomes pure, unhinged inside baseball, you lose voters鈥� interest because you鈥檙e clearly only taking care of your own interests.
The dramatic side to Poilievre, his tendency to play everything to the hilt, could well become his undoing.
Tom Mulcair was the leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017
