Members of Parliament will cast their first confidence vote of the fall sitting on Wednesday, but with it poised to fail, political posturing is already ramping about future tests of the Liberal minority government.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is back in Ottawa and expected to be in the House of Commons for the vote, which is scheduled for after question period.
The test of his Liberal government was brought through a Conservative opposition day motion, tabled by Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Writing on social media this morning, Poilievre set up the vote as a choice "to give Canadians the they want."
The question MPs are being asked to vote on this afternoon is brief: do they agree that 鈥渢he House has no confidence in the Prime Minister and the government鈥�?
MPs spent the better part of Tuesday debating the non-confidence motion.
During the debate, Conservatives urged their colleagues not to make Canadians wait for change. The parties opposing the proposal voiced concerns about what Poilievre would do as prime minister.
Stating they aren鈥檛 yet ready to help Poilievre force Canadians into an early election that polling indicates the Conservatives would likely win, the Bloc Quebecois and NDP have said they won鈥檛 support the motion.
As those parties hold the balance of power in this minority Parliament, the prime minister is expected to have the votes to maintain the confidence of the House and continue governing.
The same outcome is anticipated later in the day Wednesday when the Liberals advance a second motion that they鈥檝e deemed a matter of confidence.
They鈥檙e planning to call a vote on a 鈥淲ays and Means Motion鈥� 鈥� essentially granting the government the approval to table a spending bill 鈥� connected to post-consultation changes to the capital gains policy.
The Liberals have said as this measure is tied to their last budget and as it鈥檚 primarily a bill about collecting and spending Canadians鈥� money, it鈥檚 being treated as a matter of confidence. That vote is expected after 5 p.m. EDT this evening.
Bloc gives Liberals one month to act
Without the parliamentary pact that saw the NDP prop them up on confidence votes, the minority Liberals are set to face a series of further to bring them down in the days ahead.
Both NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet have indicated a desire to try to first leverage their votes for policy action before playing a part in toppling Trudeau.
Though this morning, Blanchet essentially gave the government an ultimatum, and a one-month deadline to commit to his demands.
He said Trudeau has until Oct. 29 to agree to help pass and enact a pair of Bloc-originated bills 鈥� one regarding seniors鈥� pensions and the other involving supply management protections 鈥� or he鈥檒l start talking to the other parties about taking Trudeau鈥檚 government down.
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The next high-stakes vote may come early next week. The Liberals have assigned the Conservatives their second opposition day of the sitting this Thursday, with the vote scheduled for the following Tuesday.
Poilievre has given the House notice of a pair of potential motions he could present for debate, one quotes Singh and Blanchet saying critical things about the Liberals, and the other focuses on Poilievre鈥檚 central critiques of the government鈥檚 handling of housing, taxes, and crime.
Both include variations of wording indicating the House has lost confidence in the government.
Reacting to the looming high-stakes questions, Government House Leader Karina Gould accused the Conservatives of 鈥減laying games.鈥�
鈥淚 think it's pretty lame that they're going to put forward another non-confidence vote tomorrow, basically the same thing that they did just hours before,鈥� Gould said. 鈥淏ut I think it shows the desperation of Mr. Poilievre.鈥�
The Bloc and NDP will also have one opposition day each before the winter break.
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
