Only four percentage points separate Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in the most recent leadership survey by Nanos Research for CTV and The Globe and Mail.

According to the latest numbers:

  • 30.2 per cent of respondents would prefer Conservative Leader Stephen Harper as prime minister
  • 28.4 per cent would prefer NDP Leader Tom Mulcair
  • 26.3 per cent would prefer Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau
  • 4.6 per cent of Canadians preferred Green Party Leader Elizabeth May as PM
  • 9.8 per cent were unsure.

Voters were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?"

The results show that the leaders of the three major parties are all within close range of one another.

Qualities of a good political leader

  • When asked independent questions about each leader, 60.6 per cent of respondents said they thought Mulcair has the qualities of a good political leader;
  • 55.4 per cent of respondents thought Trudeau has those qualities;
  • And, 51.6 per cent thought the same of Harper;
  • Meanwhile, when asked whether May has the qualities of a good political leader, 33.1 per cent said she does.

Nanos Party Power Index:

The NDP scored 54.6 out of a possible 100 points on the Nanos Party Power Index, with the Liberals scoring 54.0 points, the Conservatives 49.8 points, the Green Party 29.4 points and the Bloc Quebecois (Quebec only) 29.3 points.

The Index is a composite score based on a series of measures, including ballot and leadership preferences.

Survey Methodology:

A national dual-frame (land and cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. Each evening, a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped.

The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. This margin varies for subpopulations, such as supporters for respective leaders.

Full survey at

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