For someone prone to answer-defying weasel words, Justin Trudeau was unequivocally emphatic during his weekend appearance on the influential Quebec television show āTout le monde en parleā: He will lead the Liberals into the next election. Definitely. For sure. Period.
Of course, the prime minister HAS to say that when thereās two years left in his longevity pact with the NDP. That is why I was still prepared to stick with my 2024 winter forecast of Trudeau taking his retirement walk-in-the-snow.
But my francophone friends, who could detect a subtle waffle in his language or a commitment caveat in his tone, insist it was pretty much a rock-solid, no-retreat-possible vow to seek a fourth straight mandate.
I will thus surrender to the now-conventional wisdom that Trudeau is, unfathomably, running again.
Winning again is another matter entirely given the fury and loathing in the land against this prime minister, a polarizing anti-Trudeau sentiment that equals or exceeds anything his father generated during his four terms.
But the more difficult task now falls to his chief rival, passing just 200 days as leader of the Conservative party.
Pierre Poilievre has a nagging problem or two he has to fix if he wants to replace Trudeau as prime minister.
For starters, he has to understand the preachy rectitude of the 1990sā Reform Party, which he seems determined to resurrect as the electoral home for angry white men, cannot win a general election in 2023.
Somewhere along the bumpy post-Harper road, Poilievre and his Reform-era sidekicks calcified their old-school principles and appear ready to accept a dug-in defeat over a softened-image victory.
Why? It would seem so easy for Poilievre to stick with a few economic policy essentials, advocate for inflation-whacked demographics, harp on Trudeauās endless stream of missteps and steer clear of flirting with Freedom Convoy alumni, far-right European politicians and controversial commentator Jordan Peterson.
And yet . . . he doesnāt.
Chanting ājail not bailā or āgo-woke, go-brokeā is all very catchy while ideas such as ending safe injection sites and suing pharmaceutical companies to pay for the tragic cost of opioid addictions may be eye candy for his base, but theyāre not middle-ground vote-shifting positions.
WHAT PIERRE POILIEVRE NEEDS TO DO TO SEAL THE DEAL
To seal the deal with those voters, to create a lasting Conservative regime stretching beyond any one-off election win, Poilievre has to grow a more likable personality and stand on a wider-appeal platform, which doesnāt sound like a fossil from the pre-Harper Stone Age.
Perhaps Poilievre simply doesnāt understand the most obvious fact of political life he will face in the next 20 months: Itās a majority Conservative government or bust.
Bereft of willing dance partners ā Bloc Quebecois or NDP support for a fledgling Conservative government sits somewhere between implausible and impossible - a minority win for Poilievre will send him waltzing onto the Commons floor alone.
Denied a majority, his lifespan as prime minister would, at very best, be the second coming of Joe Clark.
So he needs to find a middle ground of policies and positions which will elect another 44 Conservative MPs to reach the majority magic number of 169 seats, a very tough assignment for a leader denied a political honeymoon.
That entails making the progressive elements of his caucus more visible and vocal. It requires bolstering the comfort level of apprehensive women voters by giving some hint of embracing feminism. It demands reconnecting with ethnic communities.
And it definitely means that when MPs receive nationally televised attention during must-watch committee hearing controversies, the Conservatives should send out intelligent voices instead of unleashing their snarling pack of bloodthirsty hyena MPs to howl partisan questions at incredulous witnesses.
Position compromise will have its limitations. Too much territorial softening could bring the seatless Peopleās Party back from the dead to chip away crucial support from Conservative bedrock.
But with the leadersā race card seemingly set and 2024 now the very likely election year, an epic showdown is taking shape between Trudeau defending a broken record and Poilievre promising to be the tough-love agent of post-Liberal change.
It shouldnāt be a fair fight: The Liberal best-before date is expiring in a mushroom cloud of ethical shortcomings, fiscal ineptitude and economic mismanagement.
The Conservatives, seemingly united behind their fiery leader and savouring every deep bite into Liberal credibility, should be able to win in a walk.
But now that he knows the name of his electoral enemy, Poilievre must aggressively prepare to fight a campaign that doesnāt depend on Trudeau talking himself out of the job or fed-up Liberal voters just staying home.
Without image overhaul to attract wider appeal, Poilievre will be seen by voters as Pee Wee Hermanās angry twin selling himself to unimpressed Canadians as the hard-right hope to fix a country that is both broke and broken. That might not be good enough to win.
Thatās the bottom lineā¦..
