In Laos, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pursues closer economic ties with the 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), widening global conflict will linger on the margin of the summit like a spectre that can鈥檛 be ignored.
The biannual summit is being held in the capital city of Vientiane, and marks Trudeau鈥檚 first official visit to Laos. The theme of this year鈥檚 summit is to build a 鈥淐onnected and Resilient Community.鈥�
As the chair country, Laos is focused on narrowing the development gap by strengthening ASEAN鈥檚 relations with its external partners.
According to data from the Prime Minister鈥檚 Office, ASEAN is Canada鈥檚 fourth largest trading partner. In 2023, more than $38.8 billion flowed in bilateral trade between Canada and the economic block which includes fast growing economies such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Trade has doubled between Canada and ASEAN since 2015.
Canada began free trade talks with ASEAN in 2021 and has set a goal of negotiating a deal by the end of 2025. Ottawa is also negotiating a separate free trade deal with Indonesia, the largest country in the region. Those negotiations will conclude at the end of this year.
In a news release the Prime Minister said he will use the summit to 鈥渦nderscore the importance of sustainable long-term growth, that 鈥渆mpowers women and girls and is anchored in the clean energy transition.鈥�
Trudeau and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, are the only two G7 leaders who are attending ASEAN.
Shifting attitudes toward China
Last year, Canada and ASEAN entered into a strategic partnership to collaborate in areas of mutual interest including peace and security along with economic and social-cultural co-operation.
Senior government sources said that they鈥檙e working to 鈥渂uild Canada into the architecture of the region.鈥� One example cited by officials is the opening of an agriculture office in Manila, Philippines.
Expanded trade with southeast Asia is key to the Trudeau government鈥檚 Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China鈥檚 influence. But as Ottawa puts guardrails around its relationship, a 2024 state of Southeast Asia report shows that ASEAN has become more open to .
The survey of nearly 2,000 government officials, private sector stakeholders and academics conducted by Singapore鈥檚 Yusof Ishak Institute found that 59.5 per cent of respondents saw China as the most influential economic force in the region.
When asked to choose between the United States and China, 50.5 per cent of respondents said they preferred alignment with the Communist State. Just a year earlier, 61 per cent preferred the U.S. over China.
Economic synergy and diplomatic divide
While economic growth will be the focus of the summit, it鈥檚 possible tensions could arise during bilateral talks surrounding Canada鈥檚 position on two ongoing wars.
The same survey conducted by Singapore鈥檚 Yusof Ishok Institutefound that 46.5 per cent of respondents said their was the Israel-Hamas war.
The Muslim-majority countries of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and Singapore ranked the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israeli civilians and the ensuing humanitarian crisis as the top global security issue.
Another area of friction that could arise involves Canada鈥檚 support of Kyiv and disdain for Moscow.
In particular, Malaysia鈥檚 President Anwar bin Ibrahim has invited Vladimir Putin to meet with ASEAN members when he becomes the chair of the association next year.
When asked how Trudeau will respond if the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are brought up in discussions, the senior PMO source said ASEAN rarely acts as a block on geopolitical issues, but that it鈥檚 important to 鈥渆ngage in frank discussions鈥� with individual partners to discuss a 鈥渂road path forward.鈥�
