OTTAWA - You've heard of strategic voting, but what about strategic census filling?
With their hopes dashed of resurrecting the mandatory long-form census, some national organizations and provincial politicians are campaigning to make sure their constituents get counted.
There are concerns about what might happen with the less reliable data of a voluntary long-form survey. Without the solid information of a mandatory census, greater participation by some groups could skew the numbers.
Data that is gleaned from the mandatory short-form census and the new voluntary National Household Survey (NHS) will be used to help determine everything from transfer payments to the provinces to how municipalities dole out services to communities.
Manitoba is spending $400,000 to encourage its residents to be counted, and other provincial ministers have made public appeals. The Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) last week encouraged all public servants to participate, to help ensure the proper implementation of public services.
The reeve of Hanover, Man., recently warned residents that the municipality could lose $112 for every person who doesn't fill out the census.
Canada's Jewish federations are dipping into their funds to encourage Jews to take the time to fill out the questionnaires. Jewish organizations have access to a special census campaign tool kit in English, Hebrew, Russian and Spanish.
"If you are asked to complete the NHS, it is urgent that you do so and proudly identify yourself as Jewish. By doing so, you will help to establish a strong Jewish population presence in Canada," reads one campaign poster.
The question on religion, and many other details such as education levels, income and health are included in the now-voluntary long questionnaire. The Canadian Jewish Congress joined dozens of other organizations in appealing to Prime Minister Stephen Harper to bring back the mandatory long-form census, but to no avail.
"Because it's no longer mandatory, our fear is that we're not going to get the numbers and we're not going to get to do the long-term planning which really in essence helps build Jewish day schools, helps build senior citizens homes, helps us understand the ebb and flow of the community and helps us take charitable dollars appropriately and plan for them," said Bernie Farber, CEO of the Canadian Jewish Congress.
The Federation of Francophone and Acadian Communities (FCFA) has a similar campaign underway. Although questions about language were shifted into the mandatory short-census after an outcry, the federation is still concerned about whether and how they respond.
The availability of federal services in French will hinge largely on the data collected through the census.
The FCFA encourages French-Canadians to "take the time understand" the questions on language in the census.
The French-Canadian Association of Ontario (ACFO) puts a finer point on it, going through each of the questions on language and pointing out how a respondent will be perceived by the government.
"It's too easy to reply 'French and English' everywhere when we're one is in a rush to fill out the questionnaire. It's essential that people who have French as a mother tongue or who speak it in the home indicate that clearly in order to be counted as francophones," reads one flier sent out widely in the franco-Ontarian community.
But will the engagement of certain groups, versus the antipathy of others, impact the data?
Statistics Canada has already acknowledged that the voluntary nature of the National Household Survey could impact the amount of data it can release.
Experts worry about the level of participation of certain groups -- aboriginals, new Canadians, high-income earners and young men, to name a few.
Ian McKinnon, chairman of the National Statistics Council, explained that without the high response rates of the old mandatory long questionnaire, statisticians will lose the benchmarks that they used to analyze the data and address anomalies.
"From a statistician's standpoint, you would have an upward bias in estimates if a community were all very eager to participate, and you'd have underestimation -- and this is a real concern -- particularly around new entrants to the country ... unless you'd have that benchmark," he said.
The Conservative government eliminated the mandatory long-form census nearly a year ago and replaced it with the NHS. It cited concerns about threatening Canadians with fines or jail time if they did not fill out the very detailed questionnaire.
To try and mitigate the impact of the change, the government is sending the survey to more people -- one-third of Canadian households. The mandatory short census will continue to be sent to all households.
