TORONTO - Pay increases this year will be tied more than ever to what province you live in, according to an annual survey by consulting firm Morneau Sobeco.

The consulting firm said average pay hikes this year are expected to be between 3.1 per cent ant 3.4 per cent across Canada, depending on the type of job.

The highest hikes were forecast for wealthy Alberta, where demand remains high for workers in the oil and gas sector.

In Alberta, paycheques could be boosted by 4.3 per cent for operation and production staff to 5.6 per cent for executives before promotional increases.

One third of companies surveyed in the West said they are considering hiring a significant number of staff, while less than 10 per cent of companies in central Canada are thinking of doing so.

"People with specialized skills or in trades are in high demand,'' says Gord Simle, a partner in Morneau Sobeco's Calgary office.

Respondents in mining and gas extraction led the sectors, with average forecast pay hikes of 4.3 per cent for all job categories, excluding promotional increases.

On the lowest end of the scale was the paper or wood products sector, which reported average increases ranging from 1.7 per cent for operation and production staff to 2.1 per cent for executives.

The top benefit issues for employers in 2008 continue to be health-care costs and disability management, even though the proportion of employers reporting health-care costs as a key benefit issue has dropped to approximately 45 per cent from almost 60 per cent two years ago as health-care cost increases have generally trended lower.

"The reason for the lower cost increases, is the result of less downloading of costs from public plans, as well as a reduction in the releases of new breakthrough drugs,'' said Keith Morrallee, a partner in Morneau Sobeco's Toronto office.

"But that may well be temporary since there are a significant number of new medications on the horizon.''

Nearly 10 per cent of participating employers with defined benefit pension plans indicated that their plans have been closed to new employees in the past two years and a similar proportion indicated that their plan will likely be closed to new employees next year.

"The continued shift is attributable to the increased volatility in pension investment returns and employer pension costs over the last several years,'' said Jean Bergeron, a director in Morneau Sobeco's Montreal office.

"Although investment returns were better in 2006, the recent market turmoil due to the credit crisis reminds us that investment risks and volatility exist and must be managed.''

The 25th annual survey included 335 organizations across Canada and took place from June to August.