Looming Liberal debt and a wounded fundraising arm might narrow the field and scare off some potential Grit leadership candidates, analysts said Saturday.

A day after Bob Rae announced his intention to run for the party's top job, Elections Canada reported that the Liberals have raised less money so far this year than the NDP, which historically lags behind the Grits.

The report comes as the Liberals were left reeling from a drubbing at the ballot boxes on Oct. 14, where the party's once-solid popular support was reduced to a historic low of 26.2 per cent under Leader Stephane Dion.

"People now feel Dion was kind of an accidental leader, they got carried away at the convention and ended up with a leader who couldn't pull if off for them in the election," said pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel.

"People will be very careful about not repeating that mistake," he said.

Toronto MP Rae said Friday that he will again run for the leadership after rumors began swirling in media reports that the 60-year-old was backing away from a bid.

But Rae will now have to contend with political baggage from his tenure as an NDP premier of Ontario, which oversaw a protracted and painful recession, Donolo said.

"Mr. Rae's really going to have to address the economic suspicion with which people regard him."

The contenders

So far, the only fresh face to publicly talk about running is New Brunswick MP Dominic LeBlanc, though he has yet to make his bid official.

Some candidates from the 2006 leadership campaign, like MPs Martha Hall Findlay and Gerard Kennedy, are still in debt from the previous bid and have yet to announce any intention to run again.

CTV's chief parliamentary correspondent Craig Oliver said Toronto MP Michael Ignatieff, who ran in 2006, has been assembling his team, but others are more cautious this time around.

Oliver said other potential candidates -- like John Manley, former cabinet minister Denis Coderre and Quebec MP Martin Cauchon -- are still mulling their options.

"They have yet to come out, they're basically looking at if they can raise the money and also assessing the amount of support they have before they make a final decision ... to jump into this."

Elections Canada report spells bad news for Grits

In a quarterly financial report, which tracks political contributions from January to September, Elections Canada found that:

  • The Conservatives raised nearly $15 million from about 125,000 contributors
  • The NDP received $3.7 million from nearly 44,000 individuals
  • The Liberals came in third, pulling in $3.6 million from only 35,000 people

Meanwhile, the Liberals expect to record a debt of about $2-3 million this year after campaign rebates come in, the party's president Doug Ferguson told The Canadian Press.

Perhaps more troubling for the Grits is that their public subsidy - which is based on the number of votes earned during the election - will drop because the party underperformed.

This could mean a loss of about $1.6 million to the party.

While Ferguson said the party's traditionally raises the most money in the fourth quarter, the party may have to compete with leadership hopefuls who will also be actively seeking funds.

With files from The Canadian Press