LOS ANGELES - The tea party is shaping up to be a contender in next month's elections. It has 70 candidates on the ballot for seats in the House of Representatives, and nearly three dozen of them are locked in competitive races, according to a state-by-state analysis by The Associated Press.
From the hundreds of conservative activists who took up the cause in races this year, these candidates -- mostly Republicans -- emerged to capture nominations and are running with the support of loosely organized tea party groups that are furious at the government.
The party in power usually takes a beating in so-called midterm elections, those that fall in the middle of a president's term. This year, President Barack Obama's Democrats are facing an especially hostile electorate who are likely to vent their frustration with the weak economy at the polls. Republicans are in a position to win control of the House and possibly the Senate.
About 35 tea party-aligned candidates for the 435-seat House appear to be waging viable campaigns that have put them ahead or within striking distance of their opponents, according to the AP analysis.
In the Senate, more than a half-dozen tea party-backed Senate candidates are polling ahead of their rivals or are in competitive races. Thirty-seven of the Senate's 100 seats are on the ballot this year.
Some of the tea party candidates are political newcomers who have struggled to organize and raise money and have little chance of winning on Nov. 2. In some states, tea party groups are divided over whether to even back candidates or become active in campaigns.
What's motivating voters this year?
"It's the attitude of our leadership, the sense they are not listening to us," says Jonathan Wilson, co-founder of the Pasadena Patriots, whose members are working on behalf of tea party-backed Republican John Colbert in Southern California.
Even in this largely Democratic district, Colbert's opponent, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, sent voters a two-page letter warning that Colbert would try to bring an end to government health care for the elderly and the federal environmental agency.
"His campaign is no joke," writes Schiff, who carried the district with 69 per cent of the vote two years ago. "We have seen tea party radicals elected in state after state. We cannot take this threat lightly."
The tea party is a network of loosely connected community groups -- not an established political party with official nominees -- so there is some debate about any list of candidates aligned with the movement. Even within the tea party there often is disagreement among rival groups about the legitimacy of candidates claiming tea party credentials, particularly between national and local organizations.
In identifying candidates, the AP assessed factors including a candidate's history with the movement, the involvement of local leaders and activists in a campaign, endorsements or support from tea party-affiliated groups and whether a candidate is running on a platform that dovetails with the movement's agenda.
Candidates with tea party ties are favoured to win in Republican-leaning House districts in Indiana and South Carolina. Several are running strong in a number of rural districts in the West and the suburbs of several major cities. Three candidates aligned with the tea party are in tight races in Michigan, which has the second highest unemployment rate in the nation at 13.1 per cent.
The prospects for the tea party candidates have stirred anxious debate in both political parties, since some tea party favourites knocked more traditional Republicans out of the running in primaries.
Jim Bennett, who saw his father, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett, dispatched by tea party activists who flooded the state Republican convention in May, described a movement motivated and energized "to burn down anything that had anything to do with Washington."
"I've decided the Republican Party in Utah doesn't exist anymore -- it's the tea party and the Democrats," Jim Bennett, who managed his father's campaign, said months after he was defeated.
The deep vein of conservative anger was there in 2008, but "it's taken a different turn now that the Democrats have the White House," says Larry Grisolano, a media consultant to Obama's campaign. "Now they have something to be against."
January could see a dramatic remaking of the congressional agenda if Republicans win one or both chambers of Congress. It's not clear to what degree new members aligned with the tea party would co-operate with Democrats -- or even centrist Republicans.
Tea partiers' call for reining in government and cutting back spending could affect efforts to address the home foreclosure crisis and any administration attempts to kick-start the slow economic recovery with another stimulus measure. The movement's fierce opposition to Obama's health care overhaul could drive efforts to repeal the law.
Democrats fear that 2010 could be the reverse of 2008, when Democrats attracted 15 million first-time voters who helped the party win control of the White House and Congress.
"There is nothing that will keep them from turning out," Democratic pollster Andre Pineda, who has advised the Democratic National Committee this year, said of the tea party backers.
"The real enthusiasm gap is between tea party folks and everybody else," Pineda said. On Election Day, "they will be there."
