Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan could face a greater risk to their safety as a direct result of the political uncertainty in Pakistan, Defence Minister Peter MacKay said on Monday.
MacKay made the statements during his first visit to Afghanistan as defence minister.
He said a flood of refugees could spill into Afghanistan, flowing from refugee camps just inside Pakistan that hold up to four million Afghan refugees.
Turmoil resulting from President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's decision to impose emergency rule could trigger a flood of angry and unemployed Afghans -- who could make attractive recruits for the Taliban -- MacKay predicted.
"If there was to be significant turmoil within the country (because of Musharraf's crackdown), there may be an incentive for a large wave of refugees to return to Afghanistan,'' he said.
"This is something both countries have been trying to manage for some time,'' MacKay said after addressing Canadian troops at Kandahar Air Field.
"Specifically the concerns are around the number of recruits that the Taliban are able to draw out of some of these refugee camps so this could lead potentially to more insurgents. That would be the concern.''
Security and surveillance along the border has been boosted, but the wild, mountainous frontier is difficult to patrol and an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 people cross the border daily.
A sudden increase in the number of refugees into Afghanistan could cause a major headache for Canadian troops, MacKay said.
"The issue is still around the flow of refugees, predominantly Pashtun, who are tribal and nomadic by nature,'' MacKay said. "This is an area that is very close to Kandahar province so it directly effects, and in some instances, may directly imperil Canadian soldiers.''
MacKay had hoped to spend the visit trumpeting Canada's successes in Afghanistan. He did address progress that is being made, saying the economy has tripled in size, 80 per cent of Afghans now have access to health care and six million kids -- one-third of them girls -- are now in school.
But on top of that, MacKay said, Afghans are increasingly shouldering more and more of the burden for security in their own country.
An optimistic MacKay said a recent successful joint-operation against the Taliban -- involving Canadian, U.S. and Afghan troops -- is a sign of what it will take to end the mission on a successful note.
"This, quite frankly, is the exit strategy. This is the ticket home," he said.
"When we have the Afghan and national security forces capable of providing their own security, stabilizing their own borders, getting on with the police and national army training, this is very much in line with the overall strategy of this mission.''
