OTTAWA - A poll released Wednesday indicated countrywide support for Stephen Harper's Conservatives was at majority government levels in the immediate aftermath of the federal budget.
But caution is called for. A poll released Tuesday -- and started only days after the latest one -- painted a different picture and suggested the Conservatives remained short of majority territory.
The latest poll, from Leger Marketing, put the Conservatives at 41 per cent support. The level generally considered needed to produce a majority is 40 per cent.
The Leger poll, released to The Canadian Press, put the Liberals at 27 per cent support and the NDP at 14 per cent. Bloc support was at nine per cent and the Greens at six per cent.
Voters were asked: "If federal elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote for?''
Anne-Marie Marois, a spokeswoman for Leger Marketing, said the minority Conservatives have gained five percentage points since they were elected in January 2006.
"It's a steady improvement for the Conservatives,'' she said.
The Leger poll of 1,500 people was conducted between March 20 and 25, and the margin of error was plus or minus 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
The poll was done after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty brought down a budget that promised billions in new spending and tax breaks for families with children, measures that could have given the Tories a bit of a bounce. The budget passed Tuesday with support from the Bloc.
The Leger results give the Conservatives higher support than a Decima Research poll of 1,000 people started only days later, March 22 to 25. Tuesday's Decima poll put Conservative support nationally at 35 per cent, versus 31 per cent for the Liberals, 13 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Greens.
Marois said it's too early to tell how the rise of Mario Dumont's conservative Action democratique du Quebec in Monday's Quebec election might affect Tory fortunes in the province.
"We're going to have to let the Quebec government work a bit and see how the ADQ acts in Opposition,'' she said.
"Are sovereigntists going to remain with the Bloc? Are nationalist Quebecers going to turn to the Conservatives?''
Before undecided voters were factored in, Conservatives had the support of 33 per cent of respondents, ahead of 22 per cent for the Liberals and 12 per cent for the New Democratic Party. Support for the Bloc Quebecois was at seven per cent while the Green party garnered the backing of five per cent of respondents.
The Leger survey comes at a time when election speculation is rampant as people try to figure out when Prime Minister Stephen Harper will take the country to the polls.
Harper has been able to pursue an aggressive agenda since taking power with a minority government, but it's no secret he'd like a majority of the seats in the Commons.
The Leger poll indicates the Conservatives have yet to pass the dominant Bloc in Quebec. The poll suggested the Bloc still led with 36 per cent support compared to the Conservatives at 26 per cent, the Liberals a hair behind at 25 per cent, and the NDP trailing at 10 per cent.
The news was more encouraging in the other key electoral battleground of vote-rich Ontario, where Leger found the Conservatives polled at 44 per cent support, the Liberals at 32 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent and the Greens at eight per cent.
The margin of error for the Quebec results is five percentage points, and 4.5 percentage points for Ontario.
Other good news for Harper in the Leger poll suggests 57 per cent of respondents were satisfied with his government and 35 per cent saw him as the party leader who would make the best prime minister.
Harper was followed by NDP Leader Jack Layton at 14 per cent and Liberal Leader Stephane Dion at 12 per cent.
Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe, who represents the sovereigntist side in Ottawa and has no interest in being prime minister, was the pick of five per cent of respondents, while Green party Leader Elizabeth May was the choice of four per cent of respondents.
