CALGARY - Albertans will soon be heading to the polls as Ed Stelmach seeks his first mandate from voters since his surprise victory 13 months ago in the Tory leadership race to replace Ralph Klein as premier.
But Klein, once known as the most popular political leader in the country, says he intends to remain on the sidelines during the 28-day campaign.
"I won't be campaigning for any candidate,'' Klein told The Canadian Press.
"Even if they try to recruit me, I will say no. I've learned to say no over the years.''
"My attitude is I am out of politics and I'm trying to get my head around a multitude of other things (Fraser Institute, Manning Centre for Democracy, Mount Royal College) so I am busy enough without becoming involved in a campaign.''
Klein, best known for his way with words and for paying off Alberta's debt, says he expects Stelmach will win another Progressive Conservative majority, continuing a Tory dynasty in Alberta that has now lasted 37 years.
But the former premier concede's he's bit concerned about the margin of victory this time.
"I do believe that the Conservatives will get another majority, although a reduced majority,'' he said. "There is a danger of a party being in power for too long a period, and that of course happened to the Social Credit party (defeated by the Tories in 1971).''
He says the changing face of Alberta could pose a problem for Stelmach, even though the province's economy is booming and the government is raking in record profits from the oil sector.
"The demographics have changed significantly,'' said Klein, who served 14 years as premier.
"More people have moved into Calgary and Edmonton, and the inner-city areas have always been tough for the Conservatives.''
Klein points at a handful of Calgary ridings he believes are at risk. Stelmach's Tories were stinging last June when the former premier's own Calgary-Elbow riding fell to the Opposition Liberals.
The former premier says even though Alberta's economy is booming, not everyone is enjoying the benefits.
"People are struggling,'' he said. "You know, it's somewhat difficult for those who are looking for work to understand that we are in the midst of a boom, because they don't benefit.''
"The numbers of homeless are growing and it seems to me politically these are the needs that need to be addressed -- the homeless and social issues.''
"You know, I can take some of the blame for it, but it's not just the economy.''
Stelmach appears to have learned from some of Klein's mistakes as he charts a new course for the Tories. Among the millions of dollars in promises he's made over the last two weeks, is a modest increase to the payments to the severely handicapped (AISH) -- the second in two years.
Klein got himself into trouble during the 2004 campaign for questioning the disabilities of two women who approached him on the subject and then telling a campaign audience that "severely normal'' people didn't want to talk about AISH.
As for campaign advice, Klein says he doesn't know what Stelmach can do to "pull it out,'' although he cautions that spending billions of dollars just prior to call an election doesn't "mean a lot to a lot of people.''
Klein said if he were to give any advice to Stelmach, he would tell him to concentrate on shoring up support in rural Alberta and giving out sums of money that an average person can understand.
"The Marthas and Henrys of the world have different priorities altogether than what you think the priorities might be as a government,'' he said. "They're talking about community halls, roads, transportation and traffic problems. They're talking about very basic things that affect them on a day-to-day basis.''
"Ten thousand dollars is more understandable.''
Political analyst Peter McCormick agrees there's little doubt the Conservatives will coast to another majority. McCormick, a political science professor at the University of Lethbridge, says he isn't surprised that Klein, like other ex-premiers, has faded into the background.
"I think Stelmach wants this to be his show and his party, and Ralph had his turn and he wants him to go away,'' he said.
McCormick believes that while Stelmach hasn't caught the imagination of Albertans, he hasn't done a bad enough job to chase people away from the party. He doubts that there will be any move to recruit Klein to campaign, even in Calgary where he was a popular mayor.
"I don't think the Conservatives are in trouble and I don't think the Conservatives want Stelmach hanging on to Klein's coattails. That would make him appear weak.''
