Conservatives are losing ground since the start of the election campaign in the 20 "Battleground 2008" ridings of Ontario, according to the latest poll conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail by The Strategic Counsel.
On the question "How would you vote today," Conservative support in these key ridings has dropped from a high of 42 per cent (Sept. 5-7 results) to 38 per cent (Sept. 13-15).
At the same time, Liberal support has gone from 28 per cent (Sept. 5-7) to 33 per cent (Sept. 13-15).
Liberal support in these ridings is still far below the 39 per cent received during the 2006 election, but it shows the party has narrowed the gap in some of Ontario's closest races in the first 10 days of the election campaign.
The NDP has 17 per cent support in this most recent poll, and the Green Party is trailing at 13 per cent.
In the 15 Quebec battleground ridings, Conservatives peaked early in the race at 32 per cent (down from 28 per cent on Sept. 5-7). The Bloc Quebecos are at 29 per cent, and the Liberals are behind with 23 per cent. The NDP are holding 14 per cent in these critical ridings, and the Green Party is fairly steady and low, now at 6 per cent.
There has been less fluctuation during the campaign in the 10 British Columbia battlegrounds. The Conservatives are at 38 per cent, the Liberals at 27 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent and the Green Party close behind at 17 per cent.
On the question of "Which federal party's candidate would be your second choice?" this latest poll shows that Conservatives have a smaller pool of second picks in British Columbia.
In all three provinces' battleground ridings, the second picks are trending to the other parties.
For instance, among Liberal voters, 28 per cent would name the Conservative Party as a second choice, while 39 per cent name the NDP, and 21 per cent pick the Green Party.
In the Quebec ridings, 29 per cent of Liberal voters would take Conservatives as a second pick, while only 15 per cent of Bloc voters suggest they would move to the Tories.
The Battleground 2008 Ridings:
British Columbia
Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver Island North, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, Fleetwood-Port Kells, Newton-North Delta, Burnaby-Douglas, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Richmond, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, North Vancouver.
Ontario
Parry Sound-Muskoka, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, St. Catharines, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Brant, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Oakville, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Huron-Bruce, London-Fanshaw, Ottawa-Orl�ans, Simcoe North, London West, Barrie, Kitchener-Conestoga, Halton, Peterborough, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Burlington, Mississauga South.
Quebec
Louis-H�bert, Ahuntsic, Beauport-Limoilou, Brossard-La Prairie, Papineau, Charlesbourg--Haut-Saint-Charles, Hull-Aylmer, Honor�-Mercier, Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, Pontiac, Jeanne-Le Ber, Laval-Les �les, Gatineau, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Brome-Missisquoi.
The Strategic Counsel will be polling these ridings throughout the election campaign.
Technical notes:
- The poll was conducted from Sept. 13-15 by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
- In the Ontario ridings, the three-day polling has a sample size of 420 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. For the two-day polling, the sample size was 280 and the margin or error is 5.9 per cent.
- For the three-day polling in the B.C. battleground ridings, the sample size is 390 people and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points. For the two-day polling, the sample size is 260 and the margin or error is 6.1 percentage points.
- The Quebec ridings have a sample size of 405 people for the two-day polling and the margin of error is 4.9 percentage points. For the two-day polling, the sample size is 270 people and the margin of error is 6.0 percentage points.
- Results are based on random samples of adults 18 years of age or older in each of the 45 battleground ridings. Results were weighted by age to be proportionate to the provincial population sampled.
