OTTAWA - Canada's lofty international ambitions -- including winning a seat on the UN Security Council -- face failure if foreign aid is ignored in the federal budget, experts say.
The Conservative government's mushrooming promises to the Third World are quietly clashing with the domestic imperative of curbing the $56-billion deficit in this week's budget.
Despite the economic downturn, the government is, in effect, committing to spending close to a billion dollars beyond Canada's borders through Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 10-year commitment to earthquake ravaged Haiti, his unexpected G8 pledge to child and maternal health in Africa, and his support at the world summit at Copenhagen of a fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
Foreign aid is usually a political non-starter, particularly in tough economic times. But the Harper government has touted 2010 as Canada's "international year" because it hosts the G8 and G20 summits, and has launched a campaign for a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council next year.
If Finance Minister Jim Flaherty does not back the ambitious international rhetoric with some spending on Thursday, it could undermine Canada's international aspirations, said Ted Jackson, a Carleton University expert on economic development and foreign aid.
"They do want to play in the international arena. The end game is . . . to get a seat on the Security Council. But I think they're shooting themselves in the foot in a number of ways."
Jackson said the government has tilted too much toward Israel in the Middle East, reduced the number of African countries that will get aid in the future and cut funding for non-governmental organizations that use birth control in health programs, in order to appeal to its social conservative grassroots.
"Those are powerful interests but they're only part of the world. If you are seen to be responding to those drivers of policy and spending, then you're limiting your chances to become a member of the UN Security Council," said Jackson.
Later this month, Canada will be asked to contribute to Haiti's long-term recovery from the Jan. 12 earthquake when major donor countries gather in New York. Harper has said rebuilding Haiti will take a decade, while major international aid groups estimate the final price tag will be in the $10 billion to $14 billion range.
One way for Canada to ensure it can play its part in Haiti is to dramatically increase aid spending to the United Nations target of 0.7 per cent of GDP from the current 0.33 per cent of GDP, said Robert Fox, executive director of Oxfam Canada.
"If they aren't significantly increasing the aid budget and moving towards 0.7, then we could have situation where other aid programs, that are equally important are in jeopardy," said Fox.
Getting to 0.7 per cent of GDP would mean expanding the current $4.7 billion overseas development envelope by 14 per cent a year for the next decade, according to a pre-budget brief prepared by the Canadian Council for International Cooperation, the umbrella group of non-government organizations.
So far, the Conservatives have not committed to any increases beyond 2011. In 2001, the previous Liberal government committed to double the aid budget through yearly increases of eight per cent for a decade, which the Harper Tories have honoured.
The CCIC estimates that the government would have to spend more than $600 million in the first year of new 10-year climb to reach the 0.7 per cent target.
"We think that's a tremendous thing they've honoured from previous governments. We'd like them to continue with that," said CARE Canada President Kevin McCort.
In Copenhagen, Canada also committed to pay its fair share of the new international $30 billion U.S. fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change.
NGOs and the government differ on whether Canada's share should be two per cent or four per cent of that total. If it's four per cent, then that means $320 million from Canadian coffers.
"I don't think it's on the top of Canadians' minds, how much they're going to give to developing countries for climate change . . . (But) you have to use more than rhetoric," said John Drexhage, of the International Institute of Sustainable Development, and a former government climate change negotiator.
As for Harper's plan to reduce the annual death rate of nine million children before age five and the 500,000 women in childbirth, a coalition of aid groups, including UNICEF, says that will cost Canada $400 million a year over five years.
If the government doesn't bring funds to the G8 summit table in Huntsville, Ont. this summer, there could be a backlash in Africa, where 54 countries hold almost half the votes Canada would need to beat out Germany and Portugal for that much coveted two-year term on the Security Council, said Jackson.
"Most of the poor countries are in Africa. Most of the poverty is in that part of the world."
