EDMONTON - Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach appears to have little choice but to call an election within days, even though a grumpy electorate threatens to dent the comfortable majority his Tories have held for decades.
"I can't imagine a circumstance that would cause them to deviate from an election call at this point," says a Tory insider who will be working on the campaign.
The current five-year mandate for Stelmach's Progressive Conservatives doesn't run out until November 2009. But the source said Stelmach doesn't want his pre-election budget coming from Finance Minister Lyle Oberg, who's leaving politics after several conflicts with the premier.
Since budget day has been set for Feb. 14, an election call seems likely early next month, probably after the Feb. 4 throne speech.
Stelmach remains coy, but he's talking like a premier who wants to get his first mandate from voters after winning the Tory leadership a little more than a year ago. He has made a series of policy and spending announcements, many aimed at distinguishing himself from his popular predecessor, Ralph Klein. He also dismisses media reports that suggest his popularity among voters is slipping.
"I think heading into, you know, kind of the pre-writ period, we'll have polls upon polls," said Stelmach. "That's part of the political game."
"But this right here (patting his heart), tells me that we're on the right track."
Ken Chapman, a political consultant with strong ties to the Tories, says a grumpy electorate means an uncertain outcome.
"It's very volatile," he said. "The quality of life is not good for a lot of people. There's a lot of wealth around, but it hasn't trickled down."
"Things are getting much more expensive and the issue (for some people) is: What's the long-range plan for all of this stuff?"
The Tories, who have governed for 37 years and now hold 60 of the legislature's 83 seats, have plenty of detractors this time around. A coalition of labour groups is already running anti-Stelmach attack ads that will continue on television until Albertans go to the polls.
Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft believes Alberta voters are restless.
"I think there's a potential of a political avalanche in Alberta," he said. "It's like there's a bunch of little snowballs starting to roll down the hill: health care, environment, education, infrastructure."
"Anything could happen. It could wipe out the Tories or maybe it will just dissipate," said Taft. "But for once in a very long time, the election in Alberta is going to be unpredictable."
NDP Leader Brian Mason says "people are crabby" after several disappointing decisions by their rookie premier and his Tory ministers.
"Their affordable housing policy didn't include rent controls; their royalty policy didn't go as far as their task force recommended; their environmental policy falls well short of even the federal standards," said Mason.
Political analyst Peter McCormick says there's no question that many Albertans are unhappy with the government for reasons ranging from waiting times for medical treatment to lack of affordable housing.
"The compelling reason to have the election now is that things are not likely to get all that much better for the Conservatives if they wait," said McCormick, who teaches at the University of Lethbridge.
"It's true that many people are not enthusiastic about Stelmach; he has not seized the imagination of the province by any stretch of the imagination," he said. "But neither have the opposition leaders."
There are other signs that an election call is only days away.
A recent cabinet order appointed Alberta's returning officers. Government committee meetings set for next month have been suddenly cancelled.
Even the government's communications office is slipping into pre-election mode. A release on Alberta's favourite baby names for 2007 is being held until after the election call.
Campaign teams are in place and most candidates have been nominated. The Tories have only one spot left to fill, but it could be a messy end to their nomination process. Calgary-Montrose is refusing to nominate incumbent Hung Pham after an expensive legal battle led to an ugly dispute over money with Tory party officials.
Stelmach says he'll appoint a Tory candidate in the next few days if the dispute isn't settled.
