Tories edge out Liberals in new poll

CTVNEWS

Conservatives edge out Liberals in new poll

CTV.ca News Staff Published Monday, March 9, 2009 11:02PM EDT

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The Conservatives have pulled slightly ahead of the Liberals in popular support based on renewed strength in Ontario, a new poll suggests.

The latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted between March 5 and March 8 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows the Conservatives have gained support since a February poll put the two main parties in a dead heat.

But the Conservatives are still down from their support in October's federal election and the Liberals are continuing to poll much better under Michael Ignatieff than Stephane Dion, the poll shows.

The latest results (difference between 2008 federal election in brackets):

Conservatives: 35 per cent (-3)
Liberals: 31 per cent (+5)
NDP: 16 per cent (-2)
Green Party: 10 per cent (+3)
Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-1)

The Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo said the poll has good and bad news for both the Tories and Liberals.

For the Conservatives, the bad news comes in Quebec where they have dropped to 10 per cent support compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals.

"The Conservatives are at a significant low in Quebec, especially compared to their performance in the 2006 election," he told CTV.ca "It's a continuation of the narrative that started with (Prime Minister Stephen) Harper losing ground in the last election over the culture issue."

Last August, Harper said he would cut $45 million in government funding for the arts. He then said "ordinary people" didn't care about the issue, causing an outcry among the arts community -- especially in Quebec.

"He really accelerated the skid in December when he slammed the Bloc (Quebecois) so aggressively to turn people against the coalition," Donolo said. "It came at a price in Quebec."

But while the Liberals are gaining ground in Quebec, Donolo says the party is having trouble gaining traction among its traditional base of supporters.

He said the Liberals are having trouble with women voters, with only a slight lead over the Conservatives in a demographic the Grits normally carry. He added the Liberal party is not enjoying its historical levels of support from young voters, either.

The Tories rose to 41 per cent support in Ontario in the March poll, compared to 37 per cent for the Liberals. Donolo said that while the Liberals continue to do very well in Canada's largest cities, they are in a dead heat with the Tories in medium-sized cities.

Ontario is very much in play for both parties, Donolo said. But with economic news becoming worse by the month, that could become a tough factor for the Tories, especially in hard-hit areas.

The poll asked 1,000 Canadians what party they would vote for if a federal election were "held tomorrow."

Across the country

In Ontario, the poll had the two leading parties with big swings in popular support since the last poll in February (difference in brackets):

Conservatives: 41 per cent (+13)
Liberals: 37 per cent (-6)
NDP: 15 per cent (-5)
Green Party: 8 per cent (-1)

Donolo said that the Harper government could have seen a boost in the March poll because of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Ottawa.

In Quebec, voters abandoned support for the Tories and the Greens, to the benefit of the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (difference from Feb. poll in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (+18)
Liberals: 30 per cent (+6)
Conservatives: 10 per cent (-7)
NDP: 10 per cent (-2)
Green Party: 10 per cent (-16 per cent)

In Western Canada, meanwhile, the Grits continue to poll much better under Ignatieff, who has backed away from Dion's Green Shift Plan (difference from Oct. election in brackets):

Conservatives: 45 per cent (-8)
Liberals: 23 per cent (+7)
NDP: 20 per cent (-2)
Greens: 12 per cent (+3)

Technical notes

The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings of a national telephone omni survey of 1,000 Canadians
Results are based on a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older
Interviews were conducted between Mar.5 and March. 8, 2009

Regional and Demographic Breakdowns