OTTAWA -- A former high-ranking security expert says Canada may loosen its arms-export restrictions against Turkiye as that country moves to strengthen ties with its Western peers.
At last week's NATO summit in Lithuania, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo─ƒan struck a deal to support Sweden's attempt to join the military alliance after blocking the move for months.
During the summit, media reports quoting unnamed Turkish officials claimed Canada reopened talks on the arms embargo in response. The Canadian Press has not independently verified the media reports.
"Anything that we can do from our perspective to shore up that government -- because they're in such a crucial place in the region -- is really, really important," said Chris Kilford, a former senior Canadian military attache in Turkiye.
Erdo─ƒan has also taken a firmer stance against Moscow in recent months, including handing over imprisoned Russian soldiers to Ukraine.
The Prime Minister's Office isn't denying reports claiming there was a deal to open talks about the arms ban.
"The export controls for Turkiye were imposed for important reasons," wrote Mohammad Hussain, a spokesman for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
"Canada remains committed to the principle that there should be no restrictions, barriers or sanctions to defence trade and investments among Allies."
Global Affairs Canada would say only that the embargo currently remains in place. The Turkish Embassy in Ottawa said the ambassador was not available for an interview at this time.
"I had thought that the Canadian government, like some of the other governments in Europe would lift our arms embargo against Turkiye as part of a of an arrangement, to recognize or to even encourage Turkiye to take a more firmer stance against Russia," Kilford said.
The reports also said Turkish officials claimed the U.S. agreed to the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye in return for changing its position on Sweden's membership in NATO, but the U.S. national security adviser insisted the two were not connected.
"President Biden has been clear and unequivocal for months that he's supported the transfer of F-16s to Turkiye, that this is in our national interests, it's in the interests of NATO that Turkiye get that capability," Jake Sullivan said on July 11 in Vilnius. "He has placed no caveats or conditions on that."
The U.S. Congress is now looking at the F-16 deal and there's no timeline for the transfer yet.
Canada halted new export permits to Turkiye in October 2019 after a military incursion into Syria, and temporarily downgraded those restrictions in April 2020 for six months.
In October 2020, Canada again suspended export permits given "credible evidence that certain Canadian military goods and technology exported to Turkiye" had been used in conflicts such as the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, a part of Azerbaijan that is claimed by Armenia.
Ottawa believes Azerbaijan has been using Turkish drones equipped with Canadian sensors, in line with extensive media reporting. It also has evidence that Turkish drones with Canadian sensors might have been used in Libya and Syria.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is particularly sensitive for Canada. The area mostly populated by ethnic Armenians, but internationally recognized as being part of Azerbaijan. The Liberals have announced plans to open an embassy in Armenia, and have often done outreach to the Armenian diaspora in Canada.
In April, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly urged Azerbaijan to stop escalating the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, months after that country restricted access to the road that connects the region with Armenia and provides most essentials to the population.
Kilford said he expects Ottawa to lift its arms embargo with some stipulations around that conflict, possibly after Turkiye follows through with its pledges to support Sweden joining NATO in an October vote.
Such a decision would help Canada's relations with a major ally, help Turkiye get out of a dire economic situation, and set a fresh tone for Turkiye's new ambassador in Ottawa, who started last month. Yet dropping the embargo would still carry the risk of Canadian components showing up in drones outside of Turkiye.
"You'll never know where they might show up again, and it could be politically embarrassing. So we have to be really, really sensitive," said Kilford, who is a fellow with the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont.
Kilford noted that at the time of the 2019 embargo, Turkiye was one of Canada's top recipients of weaponry, and the country uses foreign components as part of its booming arms industry.
"It's very tempting, if you were a Canadian arms manufacturer, to want to have a piece of the action," he said. "The issue though is that the weaponry ends up in numerous hot zones."
Kilford said the arms embargo is one of the main irritants in Canada's relationship with Turkiye, along with Ottawa prioritizing requests for refugee status from people fleeing political persecution, particularly followers of the Gulen movement that Erdo─ƒan blames for a 2016 attempted coup.
Analysts generally describe Turkiye as an illiberal democracy, with some of the most frequent arrests of journalists, press restrictions that favour incumbents in elections and civil-society crackdowns.
When Trudeau posted a photo of his meeting with Erdo─ƒan on Twitter this week, there were dozens of comments about restrictions on freedom in Turkiye.
Kilford argues it's worth resolving as many diplomatic issues as possible, because Turkiye is still one of the most like-minded countries in a region full of autocrats and instability.
"Freedom House would say it's not free, and I would agree with that -- but there's still a democracy at work there," Kilford said of Turkiye. "But let's make no mistake, the checks and balances are getting whittled away day after day."
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 18, 2023.
-- With files from Sarah Ritchie
