NEW YORK -- Stocks are drifting on Wall Street Monday ahead of a week with updates on where inflation and corporate profits are heading.
The S&P 500 was 0.1% higher in early trading, coming off just its second losing week in the last eight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 103 points, or 0.3%, at 33,840, as of 9:45 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.1% lower.
The big question hanging over Wall Street is whether the U.S. economy can avoid a long-predicted recession despite high interest rates meant to pull down inflation. The hope is that inflation is easing enough for the Federal Reserve to soon halt its hikes to rates, which have already caused cracks in the banking industry and other corners of the economy.
A report on Wednesday will offer the latest monthly update on inflation at the consumer level, and economists expect it to show another slowdown. They're forecasting consumer prices were 3.1% higher in June than a year earlier, down from 4% inflation in May.
The Fed has acknowledged inflation has slowed since last summer, when it peaked just above 9%, But it's also hinted that it may raise rates one or two more times this year before holding them at a high level to ensure inflation returns to its 2% target.
Such talk has helped erase many earlier bets among traders that the Fed may not only halt its hikes to interest rates this year but also to cut them. That's caused Treasury yields to jump back toward their highest levels since March, before high rates helped cause the collapses of several U.S. banks that rattled confidence in the system.
Treasury yields eased back a bit on Monday The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.04% from 4.06% late Friday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.
The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, fell to 4.90% from 4.95%.
An expectation for higher yields, even after taking inflation into account, is one of the reasons Barry Bannister, managing director at Stifel, says the S&P 500 could hit a pause after its big first half of the year and end 2023 at 4,400. That's roughly where it began Monday.
When bonds are paying more in interest, stock investors aren't willing to pay as much for each $1 in profits that companies are producing. That puts downward pressure on stock prices.
Bannister expects the U.S. economy to slow through the back half of 2023 but then succumb to a recession in early 2024. The resilient job market is propping the economy up now, but its strength may push the Fed to take a harder stance on interest rates to drive out inflationary pressures.
"Labour is just too hot, making it difficult for the Fed to achieve" its goal for inflation, Bannister wrote in a report. That pushes him to ask: "WWJD" - What Will Jerome Do?" in reference to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The other big factor that sets stock prices, corporate profits, will also come into focus at the end of this week, when companies begin reporting on how they did during the spring.
Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo will report their results on Thursday, and JPMorgan Chase will headline a slew of bank reports on Friday.
The wide expectation is for companies across the S&P 500 to report a 7;2% drop in earnings per share for the second quarter from a year earlier. If analysts' forecasts prove correct, that would be the worst drop for the index since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic was paralyzing the global economy.
FMC, an agricultural sciences company, sank 7.8% after it said it saw a sudden drop in business toward the end of May across most of the world as partners burned through inventory levels. It warned the "unforeseen and unprecedented" declines would hurt its results for the spring and full year.
In markets abroad, stocks inched higher in China amid hopes that the government may offer more stimulus. Its economic recovery has faltered following the removal of anti-COVID restrictions.
China reported Monday that producer prices fell 5.4% in June from a year earlier, down from a 4.6% drop in May, as growth in the U.S. and Europe continued to taper. Consumer price inflation was flat, also suggesting weakening of demand as activity in the world's second largest economy slows
As expected, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also wrapped up a fence-mending visit to Beijing on Sunday with no major agreements or breakthroughs in strained ties. But Yellen said relations were on a "surer footing" between the world's largest economies.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.6%, and stocks in Shanghai rose 0.2%. Stocks were mixed in the rest of Asia and modestly higher in Europe.
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AP Business Writers Matt Ott and Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.
