WASHINGTON -- For many Americans, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war may soon get very real.
His administration is preparing to extend 25% tariffs to practically all Chinese imports not already hit with duties. That's roughly an additional US$300 billion worth of products, ranging from pacifiers and flashlights to billiard balls and golf carts. And it would come on top of $250 billion in Chinese goods targeted earlier.
"The administration's decision to announce a tax on every product coming from China puts America's entire economy at risk," the Retail Industry Leaders Association said in a statement. "No product category will be spared if this latest threat materializes. Food and home goods, clothing and shoes, toys and electronics -- Americans' entire shopping cart will get more expensive."
Trump's tariffs are meant to put pressure on China in trade negotiations. The two countries have held 11 rounds of talks over American allegations that China steals technology, forces foreign companies to hand over trade secrets and unfairly subsidizes its own companies in a push to challenge U.S. technological dominance.
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Monday published a list of 3,805 products that could be hit for the first time with 25% tariffs. The wide-ranging list covers things like saw blades, tuna and door chimes. The USTR noted it excludes pharmaceuticals and rare-earth minerals used in electronics and batteries.
The agency will take public comments and hold a hearing on the proposed tariffs June 17.
In its earlier rounds of tariffs on Chinese products, the administration tried to limit the effect on American consumers by focusing on so-called intermediate goods -- imported components that U.S. companies use to make finished products.
That is about to change. Companies are already bracing for the fallout.
E-Blox, an educational toy company in Buffalo Grove, Illinois, imports toys from China and assembles and packages them in the U.S. The new tariff hit list includes toys.
"We are keeping a close eye on this next round," said E-Blox chief operating officer Joe Seymour. "That would be devastating."
If he tries to pass along the higher costs to customers, he said, he will lose sales. And the company's profit margins aren't big enough for it to simply absorb the tariffs, he said.
Could E-Blox move manufacturing back to the U.S. -- as Trump has suggested -- to dodge the taxes on imports? Seymour said that would be hard because the Trump administration has slapped import taxes on the Chinese plastic injection moulding machines he would need to produce toys in this country.
China, for its part, has punched back by imposing tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. products.
Trump on Tuesday shrugged off the tariff war. "We're having a little squabble with China," he said at the White House.
Mary Lovely, an economist at Syracuse University, said it is unclear whether the expanded tariffs will pressure Beijing to give in to U.S. demands.
Chinese leaders have been trying to shift their economy away from the low-margin consumer goods that make up a big share of the new $300 billion hit list and toward more expensive high-tech products. They might not want to sacrifice their technological aspirations to save jobs in industries that aren't part of their plan, Lovely said.
Some U.S. importers might try to switch to suppliers outside China, in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. But the transition won't be easy. Costs could rise and quality slip as new suppliers replace experienced Chinese contractors.
"We've all worked for more than 20 years to get the manufacturing safety standards to the highest levels ever from vendors from China," said Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun, a toy company in Boca Raton, Florida, that imports from China. He said the company cannot simply switch to suppliers in India or Indonesia and can't move manufacturing to the U.S. either.
"For crying out loud, unemployment is 3.6%. Who is going to want to paint the eyeballs onto a Marvel action figure or Barbie doll here?" he said. "It's just not going to happen."
Some businesses are still reeling from the earlier tariffs.
At the Luggage Shop of Lubbock in Texas, business is down 6% from the same period last year.
"People are still travelling and buying, but they're just not buying as much of the upper mid-price points and higher price points, which is our bread and butter," owner Tiffany Zarfas Williams said. She had to drop plans to hire an extra person for the holidays.
As the trade war goes on, she said, "I don't know whether we'd be able to add any additional people."
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Rosenberg reported from New York. Joe McDonald in Beijing, Anne D'Innocenzio in New York and Jill Colvin in Washington contributed to this report.
