EDMONTON - More than a year after Ed Stelmach became premier of Alberta, it's still not unusual to find people on the streets of Edmonton who don't recognize his photo.
It might be seen as a problem for a Progressive Conservative leader seeking his first mandate from voters in the March 3 provincial election -- if not for the fact that his opponents appear to have the same problem.
During an informal survey of a dozen people in the Alberta capital, even fewer could identify photos of the Alberta Liberal or NDP leaders at first glance.
So it's no surprise that at the midpoint of the 28-day election campaign, the outcome seems anything but clear.
Alberta Liberal Leader Kevin Taft says he's hearing a loud message at the doorstep that Albertans are ready for change. But he concedes his party is still looking for the kind of momentum that's needed to topple the Tories, who held 60 of 83 legislature seats when the election was called. The Liberals haven't governed Alberta since 1921.
"I'm looking forward to the movement in the election starting to occur in the last two weeks of the campaign,'' Taft said in an interview.
Political analyst David Taras says the Liberals should be seizing on Tory missteps to attract more voter attention.
"I think that's been their strategic error -- not choosing three or four issues and pounding away,'' says Taras. "People don't remember what 30 promises look like, but they will remember three or four main highlights or issues.''
"It's early days yet. I think that people have not yet made their judgment.''
Ron Glen, one of Stelmach's closest campaign advisers, sees a number of close battles shaping up in both Edmonton and Calgary. But he also expects a lot of undecided voters will make up their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign.
"It's going to be a very hard fought election. We know it and we're going to work very, very hard to get the trust of Albertans.''
One Tory strategist figures as many as 10 seats are up for grabs in the Conservative stronghold of Calgary, where the all-important energy sector has been alienated by Stelmach's planned $1.4-billion boost in oil and gas royalties.
On the other hand, some Liberal tactics have buoyed Tory campaigners working toward for an 11th consecutive election victory.
They aimed their first attack release at a Liberal plan to cap greenhouse gas emissions within five years that could have a $1-billion impact on energy costs that would likely be passed on to consumers.
"In Alberta there are 275,000 jobs dependent on our energy industry and an estimated 62,000 construction jobs tied to the oilsands,'' Stelmach said in the release. "Where exactly do the Liberals expect those jobs to shift to?''
The Liberal leader also raised a few eyebrows when he announced a plan to scrap popular natural gas rebates in favour of creating a new green fund -- in a week when temperatures snapped to -25 C and home heating bills soared.
The rebates have cost the province $1 billion over the last three years and do little to conserve energy, said Taft.
"Not one leaky window has been repaired or one furnace made more efficient,'' said Taft. "We keep sending money up the chimney.''
Taft also took some heat after describing the NDP, who held four seats when the legislature dissolved, as "irrelevant.'' Letters to an Edmonton newspaper condemned Taft as "arrogant'' and "condescending'' for his remarks.
But the Liberal leader remains undaunted.
"The effect of the New Democrats is very small,'' he said. "We're just not paying attention to them.''
The Wildrose Alliance is also seen as a threat to Tory votes. But leader Paul Hinman concedes his party simply can't compete as it continues to reorganize after the recent merger of the Alberta Alliance and the fledgling Wildrose party.
"We're the little guys on the block,'' said Hinman, who won his southern Alberta seat by only 129 votes in 2004. "We don't have big cash and we can't do what we would like to do.''
The Alberta Greens, under George Read, are also hoping to capitalize on discontent with the Tories and have their sights set particularly on two seats. Their share of the popular vote has risen each year since they began fielding candidates in 1993, but they also are campaigning on a shoestring.
The number of seats won and lost will also be determined by how many of the undecided or disgruntled simply don't vote. That hurt the Tories in the 2004 election, when they lost 13 seats.
This time, politicians needn't go far to find voters annoyed by the side-effects of the province's energy-fuelled economic boom -- home prices and rents have skyrocketed since the last election, and the labour shortage is so acute that hospital wards are being closed and surgeries postponed, half-empty restaurants have to turn away customers, and customers wait weeks or months for services such as autobody work or house repairs.
The tendency is to blame those who have been running the show, and Stelmach has repeatedly come up against it. During the campaign his policies have been criticized by daycare moms and seniors, and his promises to hire more doctors were questioned by the doctors themselves.
Last week he was also dogged by complaints from his opponents that several Tory insiders were selected as returning officers.
"The very fundamentals of democracy which require fair and non-partisan administration have been broken,'' said Taft. "This stinks.''
News also surfaced that Alberta's largest union, representing 67,000 provincial employees, voted to add $300,000 to a campaign of TV attack ads that target Stelmach and his policies. The Tory campaign won't respond in kind, Glen said, because Albertans "don't like ads that attack people on personality.''
"As an Alberta voter they would probably say, `Don't try and arm-twist me on this, I'm going to make up my own mind.'''
