OTTAWA - Ottawa is facing a multimillion-dollar bill to find work for border guards who can't - or won't - carry guns, newly released documents show.

The Canada Border Services Agency began arming its officers with 9-millimetre pistols in August, and so far 150 volunteers have successfully completed the training. Eventually, the agency plans to arm 4,800 border guards at all land and marine border crossings, though not at airports.

But an internal analysis indicates that between 25 and 30 per cent of those guards will be unable or unwilling to carry sidearms - as many as 1,440 employees.

"This estimate was based on consultations with frontline managers, who have firsthand experience in supervising officers on a daily basis," says briefing material obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.

"In many cases, these managers have had informal discussions with staff where views were expressed freely and openly."

Over the last decade, customs officials have gradually evolved from mere tax collectors to true border guards, equipped with batons, handcuffs and pepper spray. But officers have always needed to call police to resolve potentially violent incidents at border crossings.

Last year, the Conservative government acceded to long-standing demands from the guards' union and others, and set aside $175 million over two years to begin equipping border guards with pistols, eventually choosing the 9mm Beretta PX4 Storm as the standard sidearm.

In some cases, this "significant cultural change . . . will cause officers to reconsider their career choice and to explore potential opportunities to make a change," say internal agency documents.

The agency has agreed in principle to accommodate guards who prefer work that does not require sidearms, or who fail the training program because of physical problems, such as poor vision. Details are currently being worked out with the customs excise union, which is negotiating a new contract following the June 21 expiry of its old agreement.

Finding work for unarmed officers will cost the agency $21 million over the next decade, and $4 million annually beyond that, say internal projections prepared for Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day.

That could mean moving guards who don't bear arms to administrative positions, or providing incentives for early retirement.

There are also fears that the so-called arming initiative will exacerbate the agency's already high annual attrition rate of 12 per cent. The government is currently hiring 400 additional officers, but they're only intended to double-up with existing officers who now work alone in unsafe situations.

"The arming of officers may further aggravate what appears to be a higher than normal rate of turnover," says one briefing document.

The union commissioned its own study into the arming initiative, which involved interviews with about 380 officers. The study determined that 14 per cent would not be willing or able to carry a gun - much lower than the government's own estimates.

A union spokesman said that because the startup of the arming initiative has relied on eager volunteers, there's no indication yet how many unarmed officers will have to be accommodated with other work.

"We don't have any clear numbers yet," Jean-Pierre Fortin said in an interview. "We're at the beginning of this initiative."

But he said the union will fight for "full protection" for the minority of members who can't or won't carry guns.

A spokesman for the agency said all officers will be given two chances to pass the firearms training course, which is currently conducted by the RCMP in Ottawa and Chilliwack, B.C.

Those who fail once receive "feedback and guidance to help them prepare for their next qualification attempt," Chris Williams said in an interview.

Day told a Commons committee earlier this year that the problem will eventually be resolved through new recruiting.

"Everybody now coming into CBSA would not be able to entertain the prospect of not having a sidearm, just as a firefighter couldn't sign up to enter the profession of firefighting and say they never want to ride on a firetruck," he said.

"That person would be excused from the beginning."

Since sidearms were issued in the summer, there have been only two incidents in which border guards have drawn their guns, once at a British Columbia-Washington crossing and once in Sarnia, Ont. No guard has yet fired a gun in a border incident.