The Liberals have cut into the Conservatives' lead in a new national poll but Stephen Harper remains poised to retain the keys to 24 Sussex Drive.
The poll, conducted on Oct. 10 for CTV and the Globe and Mail by the Strategic Counsel, puts the Conservatives comfortably ahead, but just short of majority territory.
When asked who they would vote for if the election was held tomorrow, Canadians polled said they would vote: (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 28-29 poll)
- Conservative: 35 per cent (-4)
- Liberal: 28 per cent (+4)
- NDP: 19 per cent (same)
- Bloc Quebecois 9 per cent (-1)
- Green Party: 9 per cent (same)
In the final days of the election, it appears that Ontario is rapidly moving away from the Conservatives. After the Bloc Quebecois resurgence in Quebec hurt Tory hopes in that province, the party needed a major breakthrough in Ontario for a shot at a majority.
The Conservatives, who had the support of 43 per cent of Ontario in polling in late September, have had a full double-digit drop since then. That support appears to be trending to the Liberals and the NDP. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 28-29 poll):
- Liberal: 37 per cent (+7)
- Conservative: 31 per cent (-12)
- NDP: 22 per cent (+5)
- Bloc Quebecois n/a
- Green Party: 10 per cent (same)
In Quebec, the Liberals have made a slight comeback in the final days of the campaign, spurred in part by Stephane Dion's strong showing in the French leaders' debates. But the Bloc remain well out in front, with the Liberals and Tories fighting for second place. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 28-29 poll):
- Bloc Quebecois 37 per cent (-8)
- Conservative: 25 per cent (+1)
- Liberal: 23 per cent (+5)
- NDP: 11 per cent (-1)
- Green Party: 5 per cent (+4)
With Quebec taken out of account, the Conservatives get a slight bounce nationally. A poll of Canadians outside of Quebec put the Tories near the psychologically-important 40 per cent support range. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 28-29 poll):
- Conservative: 38 per cent (-5)
- Liberal: 30 per cent (+4)
- NDP: 22 per cent (+2)
- Bloc Quebecois n/a
- Green Party: 11 per cent (same)
The Conservatives continue to dominate in Western Canada, whereas the NDP and Liberals trail far behind in a contested battle for second place, mostly seats around the Vancouver area. (Brackets show percentage-point change from Sept. 28-29 poll):
- Conservative: 46 per cent (-2)
- NDP: 21 per cent (+1)
- Liberal: 20 per cent (same)
- Bloc Quebecois n/a
- Green Party: 13 per cent (+1)
Technical notes:
The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present findings of a survey of 1,000 Canadians.
Results are based on a proportionate national sample of Canadians 18 years of age or older.
Interviews were conducted on October 10th, 2008.
Note: Proportions may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Regional and Demographic Breakdowns
Sample Size and Margin of error:
- Canada: 1,000 - 3.1%
- Quebec: 243 - 6.3%
- Rest of Canada: 757 - 3.6%
- Ontario: 383 -5.0%
- West: 300 - 5.7%
