DUBLIN - Ireland's ruling Fianna Fail party faced its worst defeat in nearly 80 years as a tidal wave of voter anger about the country being pushed nearly to bankruptcy swept an opposition party to the brink of power Saturday.
The opposition Fine Gael was polling around 35 per cent support with first counts completed in 26 of 43 constituencies, a figure that would put it in power but without a majority of seats in the Dail, the lower house of parliament.
Labour, Fine Gael's likely coalition partner, was running second at 21 per cent, while Fianna Fail polled a historic low of 17 per cent. The actual results were within a point of the figures in an exit poll released an hour before the count started.
Irish voters punished Fianna Fail for 13 per cent unemployment, tax hikes, wage cuts and a humiliating bailout that Ireland had to accept from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. In elections going back to 1932, Fianna Fail had never won less than 39 per cent and had always been the largest party in the Dail.
"The political landscape of Ireland is completely and utterly redrawn," said Roger Jupp, the chairman of Millward Brown Lansdowne, which conducted the exit poll for RTE.
Official results came slower. Among the first seats to be decided, 15 went to Fine Gael, 10 to Labour, three to Fianna Fail, three to Sinn Fein and six to smaller parties and independents. Counting was expected to continue at least through Sunday.
The Green Party, which had six seats in the Dail and was Fianna Fail's junior partner in government, was in danger of losing them all.
"People were waiting to take revenge on Fianna Fail, and they have certainly done so with great gusto," said Batt O'Keefe, one of 18 Fianna Fail incumbents who chose not to seek re-election.
Fine Gael ("tribe of the Irish") and Fianna Fail ("soldiers of destiny") were born from opposing sides in Ireland's civil war of the 1920s, and many see little difference between them on the issues. Fianna Fail, however, was leading the government when the property boom collapsed in 2007, and it put taxpayers on the hook to bail out Ireland's failing banks.
Brian Cowen, the outgoing prime minister, had fallen to record low popularity and resigned as Fianna Fail party leader even before the campaign. He had wanted to hold the election in March, but agreed to hold it early in a deal to win confirmation of the hated EU-IMF bailout.
"Fianna Fail will come back," said new party leader Micheal Martin, who bucked the tide to hold his seat.
The new government, like the last, will be constrained by the terms negotiated for the C67.5 billion ($92 billion) credit line from the European Central Bank and the IMF. The loan is contingent on Ireland cutting C15 billion ($20.6 billion) from its deficit spending over the coming four years and imposing the harshest cuts this year.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, the next prime minister, has pledged to try to negotiate easier terms for repaying the loan. He has also promised to create 100,000 new jobs in five years and to make holders of senior bonds in Ireland's nationalized banks shoulder some of the losses.
Fine Gael said it would seek to balance public finances mainly through cuts, not tax hikes; it would also reform the health service and abolish 150 public bodies.
Earlier this month, the Standard & Poor's ratings agency cut its credit grade for Ireland and warned it could fall further because of doubts about the true scale of defaulting loans in the country's largely state-owned banks.
Moody's and Fitch also downgraded Irish bank bonds, saying they were worried about whether the new government would give banks as much support as they had enjoyed until now.
