Â鶹´«Ã½

Coronavirus

    • When will the pandemic become endemic? Disease experts eye beginning of the end

    Share
    CHICAGO -

    As the devastating Delta variant surge eases in many regions of the world, scientists are charting when, and where, COVID-19 will transition to an endemic disease in 2022 and beyond, according to Reuters interviews with over a dozen leading disease experts.

    They expect that the first countries to emerge from the pandemic will have had some combination of high rates of vaccination and natural immunity among people who were infected with the coronavirus, such as the United States, the U.K., Portugal and India. But they warn that SARS-CoV-2 remains an unpredictable virus that is mutating as it spreads through unvaccinated populations.

    None would completely rule out what some called a "doomsday scenario," in which the virus mutates to the point that it evades hard-won immunity. Yet they expressed increasing confidence that many countries will have put the worst of the pandemic behind them in the coming year.

    "We think between now and the end of 2022, this is the point where we get control over this virus ... where we can significantly reduce severe disease and death," Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist leading the World Health Organization's (WHO) COVID-19 response, told Reuters.

    The agency's view is based on work with disease experts who are mapping out the probable course of the pandemic over the next 18 months. By the end of 2022, the WHO aims for 70 per cent of the world's population to be vaccinated.

    "If we reach that target, we will be in a very, very different situation epidemiologically," Van Kerkhove said.

    In the meantime, she worries about countries lifting COVID precautions prematurely. "It's amazing to me to be seeing, you know, people out on the streets, as if everything is over."

    COVID-19 cases and deaths have been declining since August in nearly all regions of the world, according to the WHO's report on Oct. 26.

    Europe has been an exception, with Delta wreaking new havoc in countries with low vaccination coverage such as Russia and Romania, as well as places that have lifted mask-wearing requirements. The variant has also contributed to rising infections in countries such as Singapore and China, which have high rates of vaccination but little natural immunity due to much stricter lockdown measures.

    “The transition is going to be different in each place because it's going to be driven by the amount of immunity in the population from natural infection and of course, vaccine distribution, which is variable ... from county by county to country by country,†said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

    Several experts said they expect the U.S. Delta wave will wrap up this month, and represent the last major COVID-19 surge.

    "We're transitioning from the pandemic phase to the more endemic phase of this virus, where this virus just becomes a persistent menace here in the United States," former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said.

    Chris Murray, a leading disease forecaster at the University of Washington, likewise sees the U.S. Delta surge ending in November.

    "We'll go into a very modest winter increase" in COVID-19 cases, he said. "If there's no major new variants, then COVID starts to really wind down in April."

    Even where cases are spiking as countries drop pandemic restrictions, as in the UK, vaccines appear to be keeping people out of the hospital.

    Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that for the UK, the "bulk of the pandemic as an emergency is behind us."

    'A GRADUAL EVOLUTION'

    COVID-19 is still expected to remain a major contributor to illness and death for years to come, much like other endemic illnesses such as malaria.

    "Endemic does not mean benign," Van Kerkhove said.

    Some experts say the virus will eventually behave more like measles, which still causes outbreaks in populations where vaccination coverage is low.

    Others see COVID-19 becoming more a seasonal respiratory disease such as influenza. Or, the virus could become less of a killer, affecting mostly children, but that could take decades, some said. Imperial College's Ferguson expects above-average deaths in the U.K. from respiratory disease due to COVID-19 for the next two to five years, but said it is unlikely to overwhelm health systems or require social distancing be reimposed.

    "It's going to be a gradual evolution," Ferguson said. "We're going to be dealing with this as a more persistent virus."

    Trevor Bedford, a computational virologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center who has been tracking the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, sees a milder winter wave in the United States followed by a transition to endemic disease in 2022-2023. He is projecting 50,000 to 100,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths a year, on top of an estimated 30,000 annual deaths from flu.

    The virus will likely continue to mutate, requiring annual booster shots tailored to the latest circulating variants, Bedford said.

    If a seasonal COVID-19 scenario plays out, in which the virus circulates in tandem with the flu, both Gottlieb and Murray expect it to have a significant impact on health-care systems.

    "It'll be an issue for hospital planners, like how do you deal with the COVID and flu surges in winter," Murray said. "But the era of ... massive public intervention in people's lives through mandates, that part I believe will be done after this winter surge."

    Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said with some countries well protected by vaccines while others have virtually none, the world remains vulnerable.

    "What keeps me up at night about COVID is the concern that we could have a variant emerge that evades our vaccines and evades immunity from prior infection,†Hatchett said. “That would be like a new COVID pandemic emerging even while we're still in the old one." 

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    Why brain aging can vary dramatically between people

    Researchers are uncovering deeper insights into how the human brain ages and what factors may be tied to healthier cognitive aging, including exercising, avoiding tobacco, speaking a second language or even playing a musical instrument.

    Canada

    • A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    • Two nephews of the beloved Harry R. Hamilton share stories about his life and legacy.

    • The union representing some 1,200 dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has overwhelmingly rejected a deal with their employers association.

    • A man who was critically injured in a police-involved shooting in Hamilton late Sunday afternoon has died in hospital, says the province’s police watchdog.

    World

    Politics

    • Murray Sinclair’s family members say the late justice and senator has been laid to rest according to his wishes.

    • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced voters in Cloverdale—Langley City will pick their next member of Parliament on Dec. 16.

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    For the second year in a row, the ‘Gift-a-Family’ campaign is hoping to make the holidays happier for children and families in need throughout Barrie.

    Some of the most prolific photographers behind CTV Skywatch Pics of the Day use the medium for fun, therapy, and connection.

    A young family from Codroy Valley, N.L., is happy to be on land and resting with their newborn daughter, Miley, after an overwhelming, yet exciting experience at sea.

    As Connor Nijsse prepared to remove some old drywall during his garage renovation, he feared the worst.

    A group of women in Chester, N.S., has been busy on the weekends making quilts – not for themselves, but for those in need.

    A Vancouver artist whose streetside singing led to a chance encounter with one of the world's biggest musicians is encouraging aspiring performers to try their hand at busking.

    Ten-thousand hand-knit poppies were taken from the Sanctuary Arts Centre and displayed on the fence surrounding the Dartmouth Cenotaph on Monday.

    A Vancouver man is saying goodbye to his nine-to-five and embarking on a road trip from the Canadian Arctic to Antarctica.

    • LIVE

      LIVE

      Thousands of people are gathered in downtown Vancouver to observe the city’s 100th Remembrance Day ceremony.

    • A suspect was arrested for allegedly brandishing a knife outside a Vancouver elementary school on Friday – just as the young students were heading home for the day.

    • The federal government is urging both sides in the British Columbia port dispute to return to the table after mediated talks broke off on Saturday, the first of three scheduled days.

    • Several hundred people gathered outside the Ontario legislature in Toronto to honour veterans and remember those who died fighting for their country.

    • Toronto is expected to see an economic boost to the tune of nearly $300 million thanks to Taylor Swift’s upcoming Eras Tour, which will be making a stop in Canada’s largest city for a six-show run later this month.

    • A man believed to be in his 40s has been rushed to a trauma centre following a stabbing in downtown Toronto.

    • Calgarians will be observing Remembrance Day at a number of different ceremonies across the city, including at the Hangar Flight Museum.

    • July 2025 may seem like it’s in the distant future, but for the St. Luke playground committee time is ticking to fundraise the $340,000 they still need to build a new playground.

    • Getting out to the mountains is even easier with a new bus route from a growing Germany-based service.

    • Crowds gathered in Ottawa and eastern Ontario on Monday to honour the sacrifice of men and women in uniform who gave their lives in service of Canada.

    • CTVNewsOttawa.ca looks at Remembrance Day ceremonies in Ottawa.

    • After months of controversy surrounding a dog park in Ottawa's west end, a solution has been reached to divide the park in half.

    • A 36-year-old Montreal man who was out on bail after allegedly uttering death threats to a woman is now accused of murdering her on the South Shore.

    • With fewer interments and rising maintenance fees, the money for Canada's largest military cemetery will run out in three to four years.

    • Montreal Metro passengers can now flag a safety concern by texting a new phone number launched by the STM.

    • A member of Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Edmonton participated in the national Remembrance Day Ceremony in Ottawa on Monday.

    • WEATHER

      WEATHER

      This is shaping up to be one of the warmest Remembrance Days in the past decade, at least, for temperatures.

    • Thousands of Maritimers turned out in wet weather Monday to remember those who have served, and continue to serve, in Canada's armed forces for Remembrance Day.

    • A Cape Breton senior recalls her life in German-occupied France, and her mother’s death, during the Second World War.

    • Thousand of people gathered at the Menin Gate in the Ypres, Belgium for Monday’s Remembrance Day Ceremony.

    • Remembrance Day is today, and a number of ceremonies are taking place around the province to honour those who gave their lives to serve our country.

    • A pillar in Canada’s history was honoured in Winnipeg Sunday afternoon, with thousands showing up to pay tribute to the life and legacy of the late Murray Sinclair.

    • One Manitoba veteran is on a mission to commemorate and honour those who served our country, and not just on Remembrance Day.

    • There will be two ceremonies taking place in Regina for Remembrance Day, hosted by the Royal Canadian Legion.

    • Regina author Valerie Crowther is celebrating the release of her book ‘War Letters: Linking Lives in the Second World War.’

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • Saskatchewan RCMP are searching for a suspect after a man was seriously injured in a farm-related incident in Montreal Lake.

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • The Regina Rams claimed the Hardy Cup after a hard fought battle against the Saskatoon Huskies 19-14 on Saturday in the first all Saskatchewan U-Sports western conference final since 2002.

    • Emergency crews responded to the scene on Road 68/Highway 2 east of Thamesford around 7 p.m.

    • The events will start at 10:15 a.m. with a parade that forms up in front of the Delta London Armories, marches east on Dundas Street and turns north onto Waterloo Street to Dufferin Avenue, the west to the Cenotaph.

    • A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    • A Barrie man is at the centre of an alleged $2.2 million stolen used car scheme.

    • Environment Canada issued a weather alert for Barrie, Collingwood and surrounding areas, alerting residents about the wicked winds that are expected to pick up to 80 kilometres per hour in the afternoon hours.

    • Barrie residents gathered on Monday to honour Canada’s veterans and pay tribute to those who served and sacrificed for the country.

    • Representatives of the Windsor Veterans Memorial Services Committee, military representatives, wreath bearers, government officials, and members of the public will attend the Cenotaph at City Hall Square for the outdoor service.

    • Windsor Paralympic champion, Danielle Campo, has been crowned the number one Inspirational Speaker of the Year for 2024 at the Inspirational Speaking Finals.

    • One person has been arrested after Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) received multiple complaints about an alleged drunk driver.

    • Environment Canada says heavy rain and winds could cause power outages on Vancouver Island as an "intense" storm system is set to hit the B.C. coast Sunday.

    • Six deer were struck by vehicles in six different locations in a six-hour period on B.C. highways on Saturday, according to the transportation ministry.

    • The union for locked-out port workers in British Columbia says the BC Maritime Employers Association cut off talks in less than an hour Saturday, refusing to budge on a final offer that the union has so far rejected.

    • The emergency department at South Okanagan General Hospital in Oliver, B.C., will be closed for 31 hours this weekend, the second such closure in a week and the third since the start of November.

    • Police in Kamloops, B.C., are reminding parents and guardians to check their children's Halloween candy after receiving a report of a mother finding a razor blade in one of her daughter's treats.

    • More than two years after Alannah Brown and Douglas Barker were found dead north of Penticton, police are asking for help identifying a vehicle they believe was associated with the crime.

    • The Southern Alberta Recreation Association is officially announcing the Town of Taber as next year’s host for the Southern Alberta Summer Games.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes broke open a close game with three goals in the first two minutes of the third period as they defeated the Warriors 7-3 in a game played Friday night in Moose Jaw.

    • There might not a lot snow just yet, but many southern Albertans are still itching to get outdoors.

    • It was just days before the COVID-19 pandemic shut the world down when the Shaft Bottom Boys of Sudbury broke a world record for 'Deepest Concert Underground.' Now, more than four years later, a Timmins band is looking to take the title.

    • Police say that a 16-year-old was attacked with a sword Nov. 3 in Cobalt, Ont., in a case of intimate partner violence.

    • Police have arrested a 15-year-old in connection with a break-in and $50,000 in damage done to the Centennial Arena in Elliot Lake in September.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at Â鶹´«Ã½. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow Â鶹´«Ã½