MONTREAL - As the Quebec election campaign enters its final weekend, Jean Charest's main rivals are scrambling to explain away a poll which appears to be too good to be true for the premier.
The CROP survey suggests Charest's Liberals would have won a comfortable majority government had the election been held within the past week.
The poll pegged Liberal support at 45 per cent, compared with 29 per cent for the Parti Quebecois and 15 per cent for the Action democratique du Quebec.
PQ Leader Pauline Marois said Friday the survey results are deceiving and don't reflect the swell of support the sovereigntist party sees on the ground.
"I know that, based on the internal information we have, the tendency is different than what we see (in the poll) this morning," she said while campaigning in Montreal's north end.
"What we maintain is that in all the regions where there are polls done by other firms or organizations, it's very tight in a number of ridings."
Marois was mainstreeting with PQ candidate Lisette Lapointe, the wife of former premier Jacques Parizeau. Lapointe won the riding by a few hundred votes in 2007.
Marois also was forced by reporters to explain why the survey indicated that the PQ is less popular than the Bloc Quebecois in Ottawa.
Her response was that the vote was being divided up with the two smaller parties, the left-wing Quebec solidaire and the provincial Green party.
Universite de Montreal political scientist Bruce Hicks says he thinks the polling numbers "are probably accurate," but he goes even one step further.
"Historically, the Liberals always poll a few percentage points worse than they actually get on election day," he said in an interview.
"For some reason in Quebec, the Liberal party comes in about four percentage points lower."
But the poll didn't stop Marois from attacking Charest, complaining that "since he's been in a minority position, he's done nothing."
Charest ended up with a minority government after the last provincial election in May 2007.
Marois admitted she didn't know what she could do to wake up Quebecers and get them interested in the election during the campaign's final days.
"I'm not sure because the interest was in Ottawa during the last week," she said.
Hicks noted the political crisis in the House of Commons pushed the Quebec election off the front pages at a time when Charest was already ahead in the polls.
"So, it sort of locked in those numbers which the parties are having to struggle over going into the last three days," he added.
Marois has now focused on trying to remind Quebecers about the Liberal premier's attitude when he won a majority government in April 2003.
"When Mr .Charest had a majority he was arrogant and he didn't respect the population of Quebec."
ADQ Leader Mario Dumont insists there's enough time for his party to make a comeback.
"The weekend will be crucial, the next few days are very, very important," he said Friday.
"What's important for us is that we redouble our enthusiasm and sell people on our message of change."
Dumont, the province's Opposition leader, says the ADQ blitz on the weekend before the Monday vote will focus on wooing middle-class families.
The Nov. 28-Dec. 3 poll of 1,001 respondents is considered accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Charest has made the economy the focus of his campaign to get re-elected. But, with one exception, he has rejected the idea of imposing a freeze on rates charged by provincial agencies to limit the impact of the economic slowdown.
He said Friday if the Liberals are returned to power, the government will not intervene to put the brakes on any rate increases, including electricity bills and automobile insurance costs.
But Charest promised to maintain the cost of day-care services at $7 a day for the entire duration of a third Liberal mandate.
The premier said measures adopted by his government to support jobs and the economy are sufficient to help Quebecers through the "economic storm" which is brewing on the horizon.
"This year, we're giving $1 billion in income tax reductions to the middle class," he said.
"That, for example, will allow a family with two children to save up to $2,000 this year," he said. "So the increase in disposable income exceeds increases in the cost of living, and that includes rates in many, many cases."
