The electric vehicles came to town and I loved the battery-powered garbage truck, though it makes sense only for shopping malls, golf courses and closed communities where its low-speed limitations and lack of extensive safety gear are not a problem for government regulators who won't licence it for city streets. Price tag for AGT Cars Waste Management Truck: an estimated $25,000.
Then there's Ford's Transit Connect EV (electric vehicle). It seems to make some sense. This one is a commercial delivery van ideal for running parcels around tightly-packed big city centres, from Toronto to New York. At around $63,000 it's 2.5 times as much as a basic gas-powered Transit Connect, but lower operating costs should recover that price premium over time.
Smart's little two-seat ED (for electric drive) might just find a niche with urban dwellers who want to zip through clogged city streets in a pint-sized runabout. But at an estimated price of $25,000-$28,000 – a figure that includes the value of the battery pack – the Smart ED stickers like a sports car. Yikes!
Electric Mobility Canada had all these and more available in one place as part of the recent EV 2011 Conference in Toronto. What seems clear is that big car companies and small entrepreneurs are moving ahead with many different visions of electric vehicles.
After taking quick test drives in all of them, along with previous test drives in the Nissan LEAF and the Chevrolet Volt, one thing is clear: No one, not a single company, has figured out a way to overcome the two big challenges facing EVs: range and price. Battery life and charging times are also worrisome, but neither hits you with sticker shock.
Regardless, in the next 24 months, car companies from Ford Motor to BMW, from Nissan to General Motors, from Mitsubishi to Daimler to any number of little start-up operations are all going to find out if real people will spend really big money on EVs.
"We have customers who simply want to stop using gasoline -- for environmental, financial or political reasons," says Nissan Canada's Ian Forsyth, who heads up the company's strategic planning. It's very easy, he adds, to get accustomed to the quiet, vibration-free ride of a LEAF; the car will sell on its merits as real transportation with a battery-only range of up to 160 km.
Here's a problem: the Nissan's EV lists for $38,395, less an $8,000 before-tax subsidy in Quebec and an $8,500 provincial subsidy in Ontario. Over at Chevrolet, if you buy a $41,545 Volt in Ontario, the province has an $8,230 handout for you; in Quebec, it's $7,769.
Both are modest-sized hatchbacks, with the LEAF offering seating for five and the Volt providing seats for four adults. The Volt, for the record, can go up to 80 km on a battery charge and another 500 km or so more thanks to an on-board gasoline engine that acts as a generator to charge the battery pack.
Some, including the Nissan people, argue the Volt is actually a plug-in hybrid, but that seems more like hair-splitting than anything else. It's understandable why Nissan is a little sensitive here. Of all the world's giant car companies, Nissan and its partner Renault are taking the biggest financial gamble on EVs.
Together the two are investing some US$5.5 billion to build electric cars. Nissan has already delivered 12,000 LEAFS since its U.S. introduction in December and now the car is going on sale in Canada. Nissan would be happy to sell 25,000 LEAFS this year and that's impressive given this is an oddity and an expensive one at that.
Odd, yes, but not bizarre in that what's on offer here is your basic plug-in car. Indeed, the LEAF, the Volt and others can all be recharged in relatively straightforward ways using 110 Volt or 220/240 Volt outlets – at home.
But try finding a public charging station in Toronto, or Montreal or Vancouver. They are few and far between. That's a problem. So too is the cost of batteries – reported in the $10,000 range for rigs such as the LEAF and Volt.
What's more, until these EVs have been on the road for seven or eight years, no one will really know how long the batteries remain serviceable – even thought the LEAF and Volt come with eight-year warranties on the batteries. If the batteries need to be replaced in eight years, what's the value of that 2012 LEAF or Volt in 2020?
Good question.
Still, the EVs are coming. This past summer, BMW AG, the world's largest premium car company, showed two "concept studies" of EVs that will go on sale very soon: the 2013 BMW i3 compact and 2014 BMW i8 sports car.
Prototypes? Not really. BMW design director Adrian von Hooydonk says both concept cars are 90 per cent of what the final production models will look like in dealer showrooms by 2013.
BMW development chief Klaus Draeger says the gasoline-electric parallel hybrid i8 coupe is "the sports car for a new generation — pure, emotional and sustainable." He also says the Megacity Car, the all-electric i3 hatchback (but available with an on-board motor for battery charging) is the city car of the 21st century.
But again, consider the price. The smart money is betting that the i8 will sell for something in the low six figures, while the i3 is surely a $50,000-something-plus offering. Sure, sure, BMW can argue these two are going to be the most advanced cars of their kind on the market, but that sci-fi magic comes at a steep price.
Nissan, General Motors and others will argue that the up-front cost will be offset by much lower operating costs. operating costs:
Nissan Canada says a typical gasoline car getting a combined 8.0 litres/100 km will have an annual fuel cost of $1,800 or $0.08 per km (at $1 a litre). The LEAF? At electricity rates averaging $0.06 a kWhour, the per-km cost comes down to $0.009, with annual energy costs coming in at $180 or one-tenth the cost of a comparable gasoline-powered, four-door hatchback.
As well, an electric car will be easier and less expensive to maintain. EVs don't have spark plugs, they don't use oil, and an EV motor barely has any moving parts. The battery has a lot of complex electronics in it, but no moving parts. And the regenerative braking system -- if you use it properly -- is going to do most of the work your brake pads do now. So in an EV, there is almost nothing to maintain outside of tires.
"We haven't calculated maintenance costs, but they will be lower," says Nissan Canada's Forsyth.
As for the Volt, General Motors of Canada says "in British Columbia, the nominal cost per km to operate a Volt in EV mode (Plug-to-Wheel) is approx 1/5 the cost of gasoline equivalent. In Ontario, about 1/4 cost versus gasoline vehicle, and in Quebec, about 1/6."
Real numbers? GM Canada expects fuel costs for the Volt to run about 1-2 cents a km, versus 6-8 cents a km for a normal gasoline car. That's with gas selling for $1.10-$1.30 a litre.
These are all projections, of course. Real running costs in Canada won't be known until both the LEAF and the Volt go into real-world use. That starts now.
Here at the dawn of what might prove to be the electric car age, one thing is absolutely encouraging: the LEAF, the Volt, the coming BMW EVs and others all are expressly built electric cars, rather than converted gasoline or diesel vehicles.
The i3, for instance, is a completely new design with an electric drive range of about 150 km. Its carbon fibre body wrapped around a sturdy steel frame is very light – about 1,250 kg or about 270 kg lighter than the LEAF. And the i3 will have a 0-100 km/hour time of less than eight seconds and can be quick-charged to 80 per cent in an hour.
The i8, says BMW, goes from 0-100 km/h in less than five seconds and boasts fuel consumption of under 3.0 litres/100 km. Its plug-in hybrid with a range of up to 35 km in electric mode. A high-performance three-cylinder gas engine extends the range and improves performance. Top speed: 250 km/h.
The picture here, then, is of a world about to be populated with EVs of all shapes, sizes and prices – from low-speed and pretty inexpensive garbage trucks, to super high-performance sports cars from the likes of BMW. In between are relatively normal cars like the LEAF and Volt and delivery trucks like the Transit Connect EV.
All nice, but the big question that needs to be answered is, Who's going to buy them?
