HALIFAX - When the early returns start rolling in from the Maritimes on election night, Canadians will be looking for signs to determine if voters are ready or reluctant to hand Prime Minister Stephen Harper the majority he so covets.
One of the ridings that could serve as a harbinger is South Shore-St. Margaret's, where longtime Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy is facing a stiff challenge from NDP rival Gordon Earle, who is contesting the riding for the fourth time -- having lost to Keddy in every election since 2004.
Earle is a former MP and civil servant who served one term representing the neighbouring riding of Halifax West, which he won in 1997.
In the 2008 election, Earle lost to Keddy by only 932 votes -- one of the tightest races in the country.
Since then, Keddy has committed a few miscues that have attracted national attention.
In November 2009, Keddy publicly apologized for referring to the unemployed in Halifax as "no-good bastards." He said he did not mean to offend Nova Scotians who are out of work.
A month earlier, the Opposition Liberals complained to the federal ethics commissioner over Keddy's use of oversized government cheques bearing the Conservative party logo.
That left Harper in the awkward position of acknowledging that party logos should not appear on cheques funded by taxpayers.
"(Keddy) seems to get himself into trouble," says Don Mills, head of the Halifax-based polling firm Corporate Research Associates.
Still, Keddy will not be easy to beat. He has held the riding and its previous incarnations since 1997.
If Keddy posts an early win on election night, Conservatives across the country will be eager to count it as a sign of things to come.
In neighbouring West Nova, former Liberal cabinet minister Robert Thibault is challenging Tory incumbent Greg Kerr, who defeated Thibault by 1,554 votes in 2008. Kerr lost to Thibault by 511 votes in 2006.
Like Keddy, Kerr is in a tough fight for re-election.
Last week, Thibault -- a former fisheries minister -- received a big boost when Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff promised that a Liberal government would revive a now-defunct ferry service that once linked Nova Scotia with Maine.
The loss of the ferry has been a hot issue in the riding, which has felt the economic sting caused by the sudden drop in tourist traffic.
"I think (Kerr) has been a fairly strong advocate for the riding," said Mills. "Whether or not he gets credit for that, we'll have to wait and see."
In New Brunswick, the riding of Saint John is in play. Conservative incumbent Rodney Weston won the riding by only 497 votes when he defeated Liberal Paul Zed in 2008.
Weston, a former provincial cabinet minister and chief of staff to former premier Bernard Lord, is in a tight race with Liberal Steve Chase, the former deputy mayor of Saint John.
However, the riding is regarded as a Tory stronghold, where former Saint John mayor Elsie Wayne was one of only two Conservatives elected after the party's crushing defeat in 1993. She held the riding until 2000.
In rural northwestern New Brunswick, former Conservative MP Bernard Valcourt is attempting a political comeback in the riding of Madawaska-Restigouche. Valcourt is taking on Liberal incumbent Jean-Claude D'Amours, who won his third term in 2008 with a 9,500-vote margin.
Valcourt, who served in the cabinet of former prime minister Brian Mulroney, held the former riding of Madawaska-Victoria between 1984 and 1993. Prior to that, the riding was a Liberal stronghold.
Don Desserud, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, says Valcourt is facing an uphill battle because much of his support in the southern half of the old riding was hacked away when the riding was redrawn in 1996.
"His traditional base has been cut down considerably," Desserud said in an interview.
In Prince Edward Island, two of the province's four ridings -- Egmont and Malpeque -- are sure to attract attention on election night because they produced two of the narrowest margins in 2008.
In Malpeque, incumbent Liberal Wayne Easter is seeking his seventh term in office after winning the riding by only 924 votes in 2008. The fate of the former junior cabinet minister could be an early indication of Tory fortunes.
"That's going to be a close race," says Desserud.
In Egmont, Fisheries Minister Gail Shea is expected to hold on to the riding, even though she won it by only 55 votes in 2008. Shea enjoyed a high profile in Harper's cabinet, a key factor that has contributed to her re-election campaign.
Meanwhile, one of the most hotly contested races in the region is the battle for Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, a largely suburban riding in the Halifax area.
The New Democrats have recruited former provincial leader Robert Chisholm to take on Liberal incumbent Mike Savage, who has held the riding since 2004.
Chisholm came within a seat of forming the province's first NDP government in 1998. He quit politics five years later, eventually landing a job as regional director of the Canadian Union of Public Employees.
Savage is a hard-working MP with an impressive Liberal pedigree. His father, John Savage, served one term as Nova Scotia premier between 1993 and 1997, earning a reputation as an anti-patronage crusader.
"Mike Savage is a good MP and he's well liked in his constituency," says Mills. "But it was an NDP seat previously."
New Democrat Wendy Lill won the seat in 1997 and again in 2000, but did not run in 2004 when she became ill.
It's clear the New Democrats have targeted the riding. NDP Leader Jack Layton was on hand for Chisholm's nomination meeting and he returned to tour the riding at the midpoint of the campaign.
As for Savage, he won 39 per cent of the vote in 2008. But his low-profile NDP challenger, Brad Pye, wasn't far behind with 31 per cent.
